【摘要】 许多职业事故的基本致因事件多属于模糊事件,其概率很难确定。本文以煤矿典型危害——内因火灾为例,探讨了模糊概率下的故障树分析问题。煤矿内因火灾故障树虽具有确定的结构形式,其基本致因事件的概率却无法统计。经过长期的生产实践,煤矿中一大批防火专家可以用自然语言较准确地描述基本事件发生的可能性,这就为故障树分析提供了有效信息。文中以模糊数学为基础,引入Delphi方法,征集并整理了25位专家对龙凤矿内因火灾致因的意见,确定了基本事件的模糊概率及其临界重要度排序,提出了行之有效的防治内因火灾措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Only had recieved the probability of each basic event in the accident could the quantitative analysis of FT be went on, yet the events in large number of occupational accidents are of "fuzzy events", the probabilition of which are incertitude. In this paper, Spontaneous Fire, the typical accident in colliery, was studied, and the method of "fuzzy event" FTA was adopted. In spite of the structure of Spontaneous Fire Fault Tree has been known clearly, the probability of events in the tree can not be recieved accurately. Nevertheless, during a long period of experimence in colliery, many experts can discern the possibility of the accident causes by linguistic variables, so that the useful information for FTA in those could be utilized. In this paper, on the thoery of Fuzzy and by the method of "Delphi", 25 experts opinions on Spontaneous Fire were gathered, the probabilities of basic events were decided and the critical importance of events were put in order, the measures of prevention and control the accident were afforded.更多还原