【摘要】 本文应用文献提出动态系统预报的新方法,选用地震频度、折合频度、震级差等输入变量,建立华北未来一定时间段内发生最大震级的多层递阶数学模型,并应用该模型对华北地震活动趋势进行了估计。文中把应用该方法与固定参数预报方法所得结果作了对比。由于该方法在预报过程中充分考虑了系统的时变特性,克服了一般预报方法因固定参数而造成的较大误差,预报趋势的准确率和预报精度都有提高。更多还原

【Abstract】 A multi-increasing step mathematics model for the estimation of the largest. earthquake magnitude in coming period has been set up by a new dynamic system prediction method to be presented in reference No.1, of which the selected several input variable are the seismic fre-quency, the converted frequency and the magnitude interval et al. The estimation for furure seismic trend in North China has been made by this model. A comparison between the results by this method and the fixed parameters prediction method has been shown in this paper. Be-cause of the full consideration of the temporal variation of the system in the prediction pro-cess in this method, the larger error caused from fixed parameters in the general prediction method would be overcome to improve the quality of the earthquake prediction.更多还原