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多模型合并预测法权数的确定及其预测精度探讨

The Determination of the weight in the multi-model comcalculation and the appoaching of the calculating precision

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【作者】 宋士德; 吴赤蓬; 余载礼; 邢益和;

【Author】 Song Shider Research Institute of Prevention and Cure Guangdong Medical and Pharmaceutical College

【机构】 卫生统计学与社会医学教研室; 广东医药学院卫生保健研究室; 广州市环境卫生研究所;

【摘要】 本文应用合并预测法对广州市垃圾产量作了预测,并对模型中的权数作了求证。结果表明,合并预测值的均方误差。较构成它的单个模型的预测误差为小。合并预测可提高预测精确度,值得推广应用。对于受多种因素影响的预测项目,由于各种预测法均有其适用特点,通常难于选用简单预测法以获得适合其所研究的特定问题,此时,合并预测常具有较好的适用性。

【Abstract】 with the method of comcalculation, we calculated the garbage product in Guangzhou City, and confirmed the weight in the model. The results show that the mean square errors of the comcalculation are far less than those of individual model formed. The method of comcalculation should be popularized because it can improve the calculating precision. Since various calculating methods have its characteristics, for the calculating items affected by many factors, its is difficult to select simple calculating methods to get specific problem fitted the study However, the comcalculation is better useful in these problems.

【关键词】 合并预测法; 权数; 精确度; 垃圾产量;
【Key words】 comcalcuiation; weight; precision; garbage product;
【基金】 本文系广州科委垃圾预测课题的数学模型与方法部分。
  • 【文献出处】 广东医药学院学报 , 编辑部邮箱 ,1992年01期
  • 【下载频次】16
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