【摘要】 本文讨论了船舶在不规则海浪中运动的AR模型描述方法和AR模型阶的选择,并用自适应预报的方法提出了超前k步的自适应预报器。为了进一步改善预报器的性能,采用了三点平滑以及先消除周期性的确定性分量再进行自适应预报的方法。作者对一艘海船的预报与实船试验结果比较表明,本文的预报方法较理想。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper the description of the ship motion with AR model, the selection of the order of the AR model and the construction of the K steps advanced adaptive predictor are discussed. In order to improve the property of the predictor, the three points smooth method and the method of deleting periodic determinative component, and predicting the stochastic component are used. The predictions of ship motion based on full-scale trial data of a sea-going ship give satisfactory results.更多还原