【摘要】 经过五年来对稻纵卷叶螟自然种群生命表的研究,组建了预测种群动态的生命系统模拟模型。本模型为一变维矩阵组合模型。除能随环境温度而改变矩阵维数外,采用生理年龄为矩阵步长。每一虫期内各个体的发育不一致,矩阵中各元素均为某些环境因素的函数,共组建有18个子模式。在输入起始日期,预测期限,水稻生育期,环境温、湿度和初始种群各年龄向量后,即可自动打印出逐日种群年龄向量及总虫量。计算机模拟曲线与实测曲线基本吻合。本模型可用来预测南京地区稻纵卷叶螟二代迁入峰后种群的发展以至第三代种群各虫态的起始虫量和发生期。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the researches on the life table of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee for five years, a simulation model of the population dynamics of this pest insect has been established. This is a dimension-changeable matrix model in which its dimensions can be changed according to the changes in environmental temperatures.This model includes several submodels which display some age-specific survival and natality parameters associated with several key-factors. After the data such as the initial date of population, the number of day for predictions,stage of rice, temperature sequence, daily relative humidity and initial size of population (with age structure)are inputed, the size of population with age structure can be printed day by day.Predictions made by computer simulation are compared with field data. The trends of the dynamics between the investigated and simulated population curves are quite similar. Although there are some parameters still remaining to be verified or rectified later, it is expected that the model can be used after the initial invading peak of the moth in July to predict the subsequent development of the population dynamics during the 2nd generation and the initial stages of the 3rd generation in Nanjing.更多还原