【摘要】 本文对华北地区公元1400年以来的16次M≥7强震和随机选取的191次“无强震”,研究 了下列一组震兆:地震活动水平;b值:空区;地震的条带分布和地震的集中性。对每项震兆,建立了该震兆为异常的一个或数个定量的准则,然后用模式识别法综合分析了这组震兆。结果表明:强震前地震活动水平增强和中小地震集中在强震震中附近可能是重要的震兆;b值异常在综合预测中也起了较大的作用;空区和地震的条带分布所起作用较弱。一系列控制试验表明结果是稳定的。基于对这组震兆的研究,在计算机上建立了“应用模式识别方法的综合预测方案”,并试用于强震的预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper studies a set of earthquake precursors such as scismicity levels, the b-valucs, seismic gaps, distribution of earthquake belts and concentration of earthquakes for 16 strong events (M≥7 ) since 1400 in north China region as well as 19 randomly selected "non-strong-shock" events. One or several criteria are formulated for classifying such precursors as "anomalous", after which pattern recognition method is applied for the synthetic analysis of that set of precursors. Result of the study shows the increasing of pre-strong-cvent seistnicity level and the clustering of small and moderate events around the strong earthquake might be regarded as possible important precursors. In the synthetic prediction, the b-value anomalies also plays an important role whereas the seismic gaps and belt distribution of earthquakes seem to be less important. A series of "control experiments" show the result of the study is fairly stable. Based on our study on this set of seismic precursors, the "comprehensive prediction scheme by pattern recognition" is established on the computer and then tentatively used in the prediction of strong earthquakes.更多还原