【摘要】 实地调查表明,许多大型滑坡发生之前,往往出现一系列突发性的宏观征兆和异常现象。本文通过这些征兆、异常现象及其时、空分布与形成物理机制的分析研究,探讨了预测大滑坡发生的时间及其可能性。初步研究认为: 1.大、中型滑坡的发生,大多伴有滑前宏观征兆和某些特殊异常现象。这些异常和征兆具有明显的时、空分布和一定的序列特征。2.根据这些异常和征兆特征及其与滑体运动之间的关系,提出了大、中型滑坡在临近主滑时间的各种宏观标志和异常信息。3.根据这些标志信息,预测预报大、中型滑坡的发生,鉴定预滑体的稳定性和滑动趋势是可能的。此外,对滑前宏观征兆与地震宏观前兆的区别问题及其意义,也作了相应的讨论。更多还原

【Abstract】 The field investigation has told us that a series of macroscopic precursors and anomalous phenomena suddenly arise before many of large-middle scale landslides happen. In this paper, to forecast both the time and the probobility of the occurrence of large—middle scale landslides is discussed by analysing and studying the precursors and the anomolies, their temporal—spatial distribution and their physical mechanism. Results of priminary study are:1. The occurring of most of large—middle scale landslides is companied, before theevents with macroscopic precursors and some particular anomalous phenomena which are of obviously temporal—spatial distribution and characteristics of some sequences.2. Accoding to the relationship between the macroscopic precursors (or anomolies)and the motion of the slide—body, the author has raised several macroscopic symbles and anomalous messages which appear close to the time when major slide of large—middle scale landslides occurs.3. The result shows that it seems probable to forecast and pre-dict the occurring of large—middle scale landslides, and to identify the stability and the slide tendency of the slide—body according to these symbles and messages.4. In addition, it has been also discussed how to distinguish the macroscopic precursors of both landslide and earthquake.更多还原