【摘要】 <正> 一、导言作物病害发生趋势的预测,通常做法是:根据历年调查的资料,对预报因子进行筛选,然后建立回归方程,即预测方程。但是线性回归基于预报因子和预报对象之间存在着确定的线性关系,实际上预报因子和预报对象之间的关系是“模糊关系”,同时病害发生的外延是模糊的,大发生、中发生和小发生没有绝对的界限,具有Fuzzy性。因此,若采用模糊数学来研究病害预测,更能客观地反映病害发生的规律。本文采用模糊列联表分析小麦赤霉病害发生的趋势,旨对模糊数学在病害预测中的应用进行初探。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the common forecast experience, we chose the forecast target using the fuzzy list to analyse and forecast the occurrence tendency of wheat scab. And the mid—term forecast in made. At the same time we compared it with the one made by regression equation.Through checking the information about the real occurrence tendency of wheat scab in Dongyang County, Zhejiang Province in 20 years, we found that it is practicable to apply the fuzzy list to forcast the occurrence tendency of plant diseases. Its tallying—with rate is about 90 percent. This method is more accurate than the regression one, and convenient and practicable as well.更多还原