【摘要】 本文基于新凯恩斯混合Phillips曲线,考察我国通货膨胀预期的性质以及流动性过剩对通货膨胀的影响。分析显示:我国通货膨胀的动态性质具有短期新凯恩斯混合Phillips曲线的典型特征,同时存在着向后看的适应性预期和向前看的理性预期。对零售商品价格,理性预期的影响略强于适应性预期;而对消费性服务价格,适应性预期要强于理性预期。通货膨胀率对于流动性过剩近似具有单位弹性,准货币是导致通货膨胀趋势的主要根源。通胀预期的特征和流动性过剩的具体影响均表明:明确公布并切实执行的货币紧缩政策对抑制通货膨胀是有效的。更多还原

【Abstract】 By Introducing the shocks resulted from individual activities into the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve,we investigate the inflation dynamics and the effect of excess liquidity in China.According to the GMM estimation result,some sound conclusions can be drawn.Firstly,the empirical results indicate that the HNKPC is consistent with the nature of inflation dynamics in China,which posits the inflation dynamics as the combination of backward looking adaptively expectations and forward looking rational expectations.Moreover,defining excess liquidity by M2,the elasticity of inflation defined by CPI to excess liquidity is approximately unit,which reveals that the quasi-money is the main force behind inflation.The nature of inflation expectation and the effect of excess liquidity all provide the evidences that tight monetary policy is effective to curbing inflation in China.更多还原