【作者】 王晶晶；

【导师】 彭建东；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 城乡规划学， 2023， 博士

【副题名】基于自然实验的研究证据

【摘要】 随着我国经济的高速增长和城市化的深入推进,许多城市面临因小汽车的过度使用所带来的交通拥堵和空气污染问题,已经严重地破坏了城市环境,降低了城市居民的生活质量。为应对不断增长的居民出行需求同时减少对小汽车的依赖,许多城市大力开展城市轨道交通建设以构建低碳高效的公共交通体系。然而,关于城市轨道交通是否能改变城市居民的出行行为,尤其是替代小汽车出行行为,仍存在着较大的争议。针对该问题,一些学者设计了相关实验开展城市轨道交通与居民出行行为关系的研究。这些研究存在一定的局限,首先,在研究方法上,大多数研究使用横断面研究方法,该方法只能得出城市轨道交通与居民出行行为的相关关系,无法提供强有力的因果证据。一些研究虽然应用较严谨的自然实验研究设计,但数据采集使用人群重复横断面调查的方法,不能反映个体水平上的出行行为的改变情况,削弱了因果推断的能力。此外,关于城市轨道交通干预组和对照组的划定,常常使用单一的距离阈值,无法充分捕捉城市轨道交通站点的影响范围。其次,在研究内容上,少有研究深入探索城市轨道交通影响居民出行行为的机制,特别是居民出行态度和建成环境感知的中介作用,无法刻画城市轨道交通影响居民出行行为的完整路径。最后,在研究结果上,尽管自然实验设计的实证研究具备较强的因果推断能力,但单一的实验结果不能全面评估城市轨道交通对居民出行行为的总体影响效应,研究结果的外推会受到限制,未见对现有的混合证据进行综合和量化分析的研究报道。针对现有研究的不足,本研究以武汉市轨道交通8号线二期的建设为契机,设计一项自然实验,选取轨道交通沿线的居民为研究对象,设置2个干预组(0-800m和800-1600m)和1个对照组(1600m以外),采用前瞻性队列研究方法,跟踪调查研究对象在轨道交通8号线二期建设前后的出行行为数据,比较干预组和对照组居民的各项出行行为指标(包括轨道交通、公交车、小汽车、电动车、自行车、步行和总出行的出行频率和出行时间)及其相关影响因素的变化,并通过双重差分模型及结构方程模型分析,探索城市轨道交通对居民出行行为的影响及其作用机制;此外,进一步将本自然实验研究的结果和公开发表的自然实验研究结果进行系统综述和荟萃分析,评估城市轨道交通对居民出行行为的总体影响效应。本研究的主要结论如下:第一,在城市轨道交通对居民出行行为的影响效应方面,城市轨道交通对轨道交通出行行为具有显著正效应,对小汽车和步行出行行为具有显著负效应,对公交车、电动车、自行车和总出行的时间没有显著影响效应。且轨道交通站点对于大部分出行行为的影响阈值为800米,仅对于轨道交通非工作出行频率和步行工作出行频率的影响阈值可以达到1600米。第二,在城市轨道交通影响居民出行行为的作用机制方面,城市轨道交通设施的建设使居民感知到公交站点、市中心和工作地点的可达性的改善,进而对轨道交通工作出行产生正向影响,对小汽车和步行工作出行产生负向影响。另一方面,城市轨道交通通过感知的公交站点的可达性、商业设施可达性、公园和广场的可达性的改善进而影响轨道交通、小汽车和步行的非工作出行。城市轨道交通设施的建设并未对慢行性的感知产生影响。此外,新的轨道交通设施引起了居民对轨道交通的偏好增加,从而进一步鼓励了他们使用轨道交通,但对小汽车和步行的出行态度没有产生影响。第三,在城市轨道交通对居民出行行为的总体影响效应评估方面,城市轨道交通对轨道交通出行具有显著正效应;对公交车、小汽车的出行具有显著的负效应;对自行车、步行和总出行无显著影响效应。本研究在城乡规划学科上做出了两方面的学术贡献。第一方面,深化了我们对城市轨道交通、居民出行行为、建成环境感知以及出行态度之间关系的理解。第二方面,拓展了城市轨道交通影响效应研究的思路和技术方法。同时,研究结果对我国城市轨道交通设施的投资及其周边建成环境的优化提供了重要的政策启示。首先,为最大化提高城市轨道交通使用效率,同时降低小汽车使用,城市轨道交通站点周边的建设要为起中介作用的建成环境和出行态度创造条件。在建成环境上,注重高密度、高混合度的土地利用开发,从而提供多样化目的地的选择;在出行态度上,通过优化轨道交通服务,同时加强小汽车出行和停车管控等措施,引导居民出行偏好和习惯的转变。其次,为了提升城市轨道交通出行与步行出行的合理结合,城市轨道交通站点周边的建成环境要注重慢行友好的设计,包括连贯的步行道和自行车道,完善的道路绿化和设施等,以鼓励步行和自行车等健康的出行方式。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid economic growth and deepening urbanization in our country,many cities are facing problems of traffic congestion and air pollution caused by excessive use of private cars,which have seriously damaged the urban environment and lowered the living quality of city residents.To address the growing demand for transportation while reducing reliance on private cars,many cities are vigorously promoting the construction of urban rail transit to build a low-carbon and efficient public transportation system.However,there is still considerable controversy over whether urban rail transit can change the travel behavior of city residents,especially in terms of replacing car travel.In response to this issue,some scholars have designed relevant experiments to study the relationship between urban rail transit and resident travel behavior.These studies have certain limitations.Firstly,in terms of research methods,most studies use cross-sectional research methods,which can only provide the correlation between urban rail transit and resident travel behavior,but cannot provide strong causal evidence.Although some studies have used rigorous natural experimental research designs,the data collection method of repeated cross-sectional surveys of populations cannot reflect changes in individual-level travel behavior,weakening the ability of causal inference.In addition,the delimitation of the intervention group and control group of urban rail transit often uses a single distance threshold,which cannot fully capture the influence range of urban rail transit stations.Secondly,in terms of research content,few studies have explored in depth the mechanisms by which urban rail transit affects resident travel behavior,especially the mediating role of resident travel attitudes and the perception of the built environment,which cannot fully depict the complete path of urban rail transit’s impact on resident travel behavior.Finally,in terms of research results,although empirical studies using natural experimental designs have strong causal inference ability,a single experimental result cannot comprehensively estimate the overall impact of urban rail transit on resident travel behavior,and extrapolation of research results is limited without comprehensive and quantitative analysis of existing mixed evidence.To address the shortcomings of existing research,this study takes the construction of the Wuhan Metro Line 8 Phase II as an opportunity to design a natural experiment.Residents living along the metro line are selected as the research subjects,and two intervention groups(0-800m and 800-1600m)and one control group(beyond1600m)are set.Using a prospective cohort study method,the study tracks and investigates the travel behavior data of the research subjects before and after the construction of the Wuhan Metro Line 8 Phase II,compares the changes in various travel behavior indicators(including the frequency and duration of metro,bus,car,e-bike,bike,walking,and total trips)and their related influencing factors between the intervention and control groups,and explores the impact of urban rail transit on resident travel behavior and its mechanism through a difference-in-differences model and structural equation model analysis.In addition,the study further conducts a systematic review and meta-analysis of the results of this natural experiment and those of publicly published natural experimental studies to estimate the overall impact of urban rail transit on resident travel behavior.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:First,regarding the impact of urban rail transit on resident travel behavior,urban rail transit has a significant positive effect on metro travel behavior,a significant negative effect on car and walking travel behavior,and no significant effect on the time of bus,e-bike,bike,and total trips.The impact threshold of rail transit stations on most travel behaviors is 800 meters,while only the impact threshold for non-work metro travel frequency and work walking travel frequency can reach 1600 meters.Second,regarding the mechanism of urban rail transit’s impact on resident travel behavior,the construction of urban rail transit facilities improves residents’perception of the accessibility of bus stops,downtown areas,and workplaces,thus positively affecting work-related metro travel and negatively affecting car and walking work-related travel.On the other hand,urban rail transit affects non-work metro,car,and walking travel through the improvement of perceived accessibility to bus stops,commercial facilities,parks,and squares.The construction of urban rail transit facilities does not affect the perception of slow travel.In addition,the new urban rail transit facilities have increased residents’preference for rail transit,thereby further encouraging them to use rail transit,but have not affected attitudes towards car and walking travel.Third,regarding the estimation of the overall impact of urban rail transit on resident travel behavior,urban rail transit has a significant positive effect on metro travel,a significant negative effect on bus and car travel,and no significant effect on bike,walking,and total trips.This study has made two academic contributions to the field of urban and rural planning.Firstly,it has deepened our understanding of the relationships between urban rail transit,resident travel behavior,perceived built environment,and travel attitudes.Secondly,it has expanded the approach and technical methods of studying the impact of urban rail transit.Additionally,the study results provide important policy implications for investment in urban rail transit facilities and optimization of the surrounding built environment in China.Firstly,to maximize the efficiency of urban rail transit usage while reducing car usage,the built environment and travel attitudes around urban rail transit stations should be conducive to playing an intermediary role.In terms of the built environment,the focus should be on high-density and high-mixed land use development to provide a variety of destination choices.In terms of travel attitudes,optimizing rail transit services and strengthening measures such as traffic control and parking management for cars can guide a shift in resident travel preferences and habits.Secondly,to improve the reasonable combination of urban rail transit and walking,the built environment around urban rail transit stations should focus on slow travel-friendly design,including connected pedestrian and bicycle paths,improved road greening and facilities,and other measures to encourage healthy travel modes such as walking and cycling.更多还原