【作者】 刘伟；

【导师】 刘艳军；

【作者基本信息】 东北师范大学 ， 城市与区域规划， 2023， 博士

【副题名】基于多等级视角

【摘要】 城镇收缩作为一个全球性社会经济问题,已成为国内外城市与区域研究的理论热点。新世纪以来,随着我国经济体制市场化改革,经济要素流动性增强,国家产业与城镇化重心持续南移,加之东北地区资源枯竭、产业经济效益下降、产业转型缓慢等内在原因,东北经济增长滞缓,城镇人口大量外流,城镇收缩现象尤为突出。自2019年来,国家发展改革委发布年度《新型城镇化建设和城乡融合发展重点任务》,2022年中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于推进以县城为重要载体的城镇化建设的意见》等文中均明确提出“收缩型城市瘦身强体”“引导人口流失县城转型发展”等转变增量思维、促进存量转型的发展思路。在此背景下,充分认识东北地区城镇收缩特征与格局,深入剖析城镇收缩形成与演化机制具有一定的理论与现实意义。不同等级城镇之间人口增减并非同步,同一地级城市管辖范围内,中心城市、县城、小城镇之间存在复杂的互动关联机制。以往多局限于同一等级城镇的城镇收缩研究并不能完全刻画出城镇增长与收缩的真实格局。因此,本文以东北地区为研究区,从多等级城镇关联视角出发,基于企业大数据、夜间灯光影像数据、土地利用监督分类数据等多源数据,利用地理空间分析模型、HLM模型和中介效应模型,分析2000年以来东北地区不同等级城镇收缩的空间格局、机制和效应,并提出东北地区多等级城镇收缩的协调治理路径。主要研究结论如下:(1)东北地区各等级城镇均出现显著的收缩现象,集中分布在陆地边境地区。城镇收缩的数量与收缩程度呈现出明显等级差异性,其中,地级收缩城市占比最高、收缩程度较轻,县级收缩城镇数量增长较快,建制镇表现出持续收缩的趋势。东北地区收缩城镇人口空间极化特征显著,由“小城镇部分收缩,大中城镇保持增长”向“中小城镇广泛收缩,大城市极化增长”的模式转变。城镇收缩多等级空间关联类型可划分为增长驱动型、中心虹吸型、外围增长型、局部增长型和全局收缩型。(2)东北地区城镇收缩受人口结构、经济基础、产业发展水平、基础设施以及自然环境等因素影响,各等级城镇影响程度存在差异。地级城市收缩主要受经济发展水平下滑、固定资产投资不足、基础设施建设和第三产业发展滞后的影响。县级城镇收缩主要受城镇人口与经济规模过小、固定资产投资下滑、产业技术竞争力不足和基础设施建设滞后的影响。建制镇产业竞争力、基础设施等方面与地级城市和县级城镇差距较大,城镇人口、经济与产业规模的提升并不能减缓城镇收缩。(3)东北地区各等级城镇收缩存在等级关联性,通过不同要素进行传导。就业机会、薪资待遇、基础设施水平是关联多等级城镇人口流动的核心要素。高等级城镇就业机会、薪资待遇和教育医疗服务对低等级城镇存在强烈的人口虹吸效应。高等级城镇的产业发展水平对低等级城镇作用具有两面性,一方面减缓具有产业承接能力的城镇人口流失,另一方面加速普通城镇人口流失。部分产业基础较好或地方产业特色突出的县级城镇和建制镇表现出独立发展的韧性特征,受高等级城镇要素剥夺影响较弱。(4)城镇收缩对东北地区各级城镇综合发展水平均存在负面影响效应。城镇人口规模下降引起城镇消费活力下降、基础设施维护成本上涨等问题,进一步降低城镇综合发展水平。城镇收缩加剧城镇较高技能或高教育水平劳动力流失,造成城镇人口密度和经济活动密度下降,降低城镇人力资本水平、城镇生产率和知识溢出效应,进而抑制城镇综合发展水平的提升。(5)东北地区城镇收缩的治理需建立城镇收缩治理的多等级协调机制,分区分类引导城镇发展。具有集聚能力的区域中心城市,应促进产业要素集聚,提升城市基础设施与公共服务水平,提高人口承载能力;边缘化、资源枯竭型的地级城市,应有序推动替代产业与劳动密集型产业协调发展,提升中心城区人口集聚能力。中心城市周边、具有特色产业与资源的县级城镇,应主动承接中心城市产业与功能,提升城市公共服务水平,引导周边人口向县城集中;持续收缩的县级城镇,应顺应人口变化,提质瘦身,专注县城发展;广泛收缩的建制镇,应合理进行城镇功能的转型与升级,提高居民生活质量,扶持和培育重点城镇,整合和撤并基础较差的城镇。本文基于多等级视角构建了城镇收缩的理论研究框架,研究了东北地区地级城市、县级城镇和建制镇城镇收缩特征、格局的时空差异性,探究了不同等级收缩城镇之间生产要素的时空交互关系,揭示了多等级城镇收缩的时空关联机制与影响效应,提出多等级收缩城镇的协调治理模式和发展路径,进一步丰富和拓展了城市收缩理论,为东北地区城镇收缩治理提供参考借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a global socio-economic issue,urban shrinkage has become a theoretical hotspot in the realm of international urban and regional studies.Since the beginning of the current century,China has undergone market-oriented economic reforms,resulting in increased mobility of economic factors and a continuous southward shift of the national industry and urbanization center.Along with internal reasons in Northeast China such as resource depletion,declining industrial economic benefits,and slow industrial transformation,the economic growth in Northeast China has stagnated,leading to a significant outflow of urban population and a particularly noteworthy urban shrinkage phenomenon.Since 2019,the National Development and Reform Commission released its annual“Key Tasks for a New-type of Urbanization and Urban-rural Integration Development”.Subsequently,in 2022,the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the“Opinions on Promoting Urbanization Construction with County Towns as Important Carriers”.These documents are clearly directives to“slim down and strengthen shrinking cities”and“guide the transformation and development of county towns experiencing population loss”.These initiatives aim to break away from the inertia of incremental thinking and instead foster transformation and revitalization of existing urban stocks.In this context,it is of theoretical and practical significance to fully understand the characteristics and pattern of urban shrinkage in Northeast China,and to deeply analyze the formation and evolution mechanism of urban shrinkage.Population growth and shrinkage between different levels of cities and towns are not synchronized.There exist complex interaction mechanisms between central cities,county towns,and ordinary towns within the jurisdiction of the same prefecture-level city.Previous studies on urban shrinkage,which were mostly limited to cities and towns of the same level,could not fully describe the real picture of urban growth and shrinkage.Therefore,this paper takes Northeast China as the study area,from the perspectives of multi-level urban association,uses multi-source data such as enterprise big data,nighttime light image data,and land use supervision classification data,as well as methods such as spatial analysis model,HLM model and mediating effect model to analyze the spatial patterns,mechanisms and effects of different levels of urban shrinkage in Northeast China since 2000,and proposes multi-level governance pathways for urban shrinkage in Northeast China.The main findings are as follows.(1)The shrinkage of cities and towns at all levels in Northeast China have undergone significant shrinkage,concentrated in land border areas.The number and degree of urban shrinkage exhibited obvious hierarchical differences.Among them,prefecture-level shrinking cities accounted for the highest proportion and experienced relatively lighter shrinkage,the number of county-level shrinking towns increased rapidly,and ordinary towns showed a continuous shrinking trend.The spatial polarization of the population in Northeast China has undergone significant changes,transitioning from a pattern of“partial shrinkage of small towns,while large and medium-sized cities and towns maintain growth”to“widespread shrinkage of small and medium-sized towns,and polarized growth of large cities”.The multi-level spatial association types of urban shrinkage can be classified into growth-driven type,central siphon type,peripheral growth type,local growth type and global shrinkage type.(2)The shrinkage of cities and towns in Northeast China is influenced by factors such as demographic structure,economic base,industrial development level,infrastructure and natural environment.The extent of influence of these factors varies across different level of cities and towns.The shrinkage of prefecture-level cities is primarily attributed to a decline in economic development,inadequate investment in fixed assets,and a lag in infrastructure construction and tertiary industry development.The shrinkage of county-level towns is predominantly caused by their small population and economy,declining investment in fixed assets,lack of industrial technology competitiveness,and deficient infrastructure construction.There exists a considerable discrepancy in industrial competitiveness and infrastructure between ordinary towns,prefecture-level cities,and county-level towns,whereby enhancing the population,economy,and industrial scale of ordinary towns cannot impede urban shrinkage.(3)There is a hierarchical association between different levels of urban shrinkage in Northeast China,and the association mechanism of different levels of urban shrinkage is conveyed through distinct factors.Employment opportunities,salaries,and infrastructure levels are the core constituents that relate to population mobility across multi-level cities and towns.Employment opportunities,salaries,education and medical services in high-level cities and towns have a strong population siphon effect on low-level cities and towns.The level of industrial development in high-level cities and towns has a two-sided impact on low-level cities and towns.On the one hand,it decelerates the loss of urban population capable of undertaking industries.On the other hand,it accelerates the loss of ordinary town population.Certain county-level and ordinary towns that possess a strong industrial foundation or unique local industrial traits demonstrate resilient characteristics towards independent development,and are less vulnerable to the deprivation of high-level urban elements.(4)Urban shrinkage has a negative effect on the comprehensive development level of cities and towns at all levels in Northeast China.The reduction in urban population size has resulted in a decrease in urban consumption dynamics and an increase in infrastructure maintenance costs,thereby hindering the comprehensive development level of cities and towns.Urban shrinkage intensifies the outflow of higher-skilled or educated labor from cities and towns,resulting in a decline in urban population density and economic activity density,reducing the level of urban human capital,productivity,and knowledge spillover effects,which in turn inhibits the enhancement of the comprehensive development level of cities and towns.(5)The effective governance of urban shrinkage in Northeast China requires the establishment a multi-level coordination mechanism for urban shrinkage management,and guidance of urban development through zoning and classification.Central cities with regional agglomeration capacity should promote the agglomeration of industrial elements,improve the quality of urban infrastructure and public services,and increase the carrying capacity of the population.Peripheralized and resource-depleted prefecture-level cities should facilitate the orderly and coordinated development of alternative industries and labor-intensive industries,in order to enhance the population gathering capacity of central urban areas.County-level towns surrounding central cities that possess characteristic industries and resources should proactively undertake the industries and functions of central cities,improve the quality of urban public services,and guide the surrounding population to concentrate in county towns.County-level towns that continue to experience shrinkage should adapt to population changes,strive for quality improvement and efficiency optimization,and prioritize county town development.Ordinary towns that are widely experiencing shrinkage should engage in the rational transformation and upgrading of town functions,improve the standard of living for residents,provide support and cultivate key towns,and integrate or abolish towns with weaker foundations.This paper establishes a theoretical research framework on urban shrinkage from a multi-level perspective,examining the spatial and temporal variations in shrinkage characteristics and patterns of prefecture-level cities,county-level towns,and ordinary towns in Northeast China.The study investigates the spatial and temporal interaction of production factors among shrinking cities and towns of different levels,elucidating the spatial and temporal association mechanisms and influence effects of multi-level urban shrinkage.Based on the findings,the study proposes a coordinated governance model and development pathway for regional multi-level shrinking cities and towns,contributing to the enrichment and expansion of the theory of urban shrinkage,and providing valuable insights for the governance of urban shrinkage in Northeast China.更多还原