【作者】 李雯；

【导师】 熊理然；

【作者基本信息】 云南师范大学 ， 边疆地理学， 2024， 博士

【摘要】 在全球经济一体化和供应链全球化的大背景下,对外贸易成为推动世界经济发展的主要动力之一。然而,全球政治经济环境的复杂性与不确定性对各国对外贸易产生了深远影响,特别是在面对新冠疫情、贸易保护主义上升、地缘政治紧张等全球性挑战时,对外贸易的稳定性和恢复力显得尤为重要。如何增强对外贸易的韧性,增强其在全球贸易中的地位和抗风险能力成为中国面临的重要课题。本研究选取2001年至2023年间中国对外贸易数据,采用了熵值法、描述性统计分析、ArcGIS软件自然断点法、空间自相关分析法等方法进行统计分析,构建了国际贸易韧性理论和评价指标体系,全面评估中国对外贸易韧性的时空特征和演变趋势。同时,研究还采用了障碍度模型和地理探测器方法分析了中国与96个国家在12个核心指标上的对外贸易韧性表现,涵盖了制造业产值、国家GDP、双边贸易额等多个维度,对中国对外贸易韧性进行障碍因子和影响因素分析,并提出了提升中国对外贸易韧性的对策建议。本研究的主要工作和结论如下:(1)构建了国际贸易韧性理论框架和评价指标体系,从韧性的概念内涵着手,借鉴区域经济韧性理论框架,在对韧性与贸易关系进行解析的基础上,结合国际贸易理论,构建了对外贸易韧性理论分析框架。在此理论框架下,综合运用核心指标评价法和综合指标评价法对对外贸易韧性进行综合比较分析,从贸易抵抗和适应能力指标、贸易恢复和调整能力指标2个维度设计了对外贸易韧性评价指标体系。(2)总结归纳了中国对外贸易韧性的总体特征。通过单一指标和综合指标对2001年至2023年中国对外贸易韧性的总体特征进行刻画,二者共同反映出2001年以来中国对外贸易韧性总体呈现出一种动态的、逐步上升的趋势。(3)研究发现中国与主要贸易伙伴的贸易韧性呈现出明显的时空分异特征。中国外贸在2001—2007年、2008—2012年、2013—2019年、2020—2023年这四个不同阶段在应对外部冲击时具有较好的恢复和调整能力,而且也存在极强的抵抗和适应能力,其中后者较前者的响应速度更为明显。在区域方面,中国与北美、东北亚、欧洲地区之间的贸易平均韧性值排名前三;在国别方面,贸易韧性的个体差异极大,七国集团(G7)国家(加拿大除外)和韩国占据排名的前七名,与美国的贸易韧性始终处于高位,此外前十名还包括荷兰、西班牙和比利时,排名最末端的是阿富汗。相较于欧美、日韩等贸易韧性长期较强的国家来说,变化较为明显的是2008—2012年后中国与俄罗斯、土耳其、巴西、印度尼西亚等新兴经济体国家的贸易韧性不断增强,另外中国与东南亚地区(东盟)的贸易韧性增长也较为明显。(4)全局莫兰指数和莫兰散点图均表明中国与各国的贸易韧性之间存在着显著的正向空间关联性,即贸易韧性较强的国家往往与其周边韧性同样较强的国家相连。通过空间自相关分析,发现热点区域(高—高)主要集中于北美和欧洲,而冷点区域(低—低)则分布在中亚、西亚和非洲的部分地区,“高—低”聚集区的代表则是印度和土耳其。(5)研究发现制造业增加值、国家GDP、双边贸易额等指标对对外贸易韧性有着显著的影响。本研究采用了障碍度模型和地理探测器方法对对外贸易韧性影响机制进行分析。障碍度模型通过“因子贡献度”和“障碍度”等指标,识别出影响中国对外贸易韧性的主要障碍因子,包括贸易抵抗和适应能力、贸易恢复和调整能力等。地理探测器方法则通过分析国家GDP、制造业发展水平、高新技术产业发展水平、研发支出、交通与区位条件、投资与贸易环境等因子,结合对2004年、2010年、2016年、2021年四个年度的截面数据进行分析表明,国家GDP、制造业发展水平、货柜码头吞吐量、航空运输量、外商投资状况等因子对对外贸易韧性空间分异格局的影响最为显著。同时,中国与不同类型国家对外贸易韧性也存在国别差异,与发达国家贸易时,更应关注规则与制度体系建设,而与发展中国家贸易时,需侧重打破贸易壁垒。(6)结合对中国对外贸易韧性测度结果和影响因素等分析,通过优化货物贸易结构、创新发展服务贸易、加快发展贸易新业态、提升贸易数字化水平、构建绿色贸易体系、深化“一带一路”贸易畅通合作、强化风险防控体系、营造良好发展环境等举措,可增强我国对外贸易韧性的动态适应性,以积极应对全球风险。本研究较为系统地构建了一个涵盖多维度指标的国际贸易韧性评价体系,并应用于中国与全球多个国家的对外贸易分析中。通过实证研究,揭示了中国对外贸易韧性的时空分布特征,探讨了其背后的影响机制,为政府制定贸易政策、企业规划市场布局提供了宝贵的理论依据和实证证据。此外,研究还突显了中国在全球经济体系中日益增强的地位,以及在全球贸易合作中扮演的积极作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the context of global economic integration and the globalization of supply chains,foreign trade has become one of the main drivers of world economic growth.However,the complexity and uncertainty of the global political and economic environment have had a profound impact on foreign trade for all countries,especially in the face of global challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic,rising trade protectionism,and tense geopolitics,the stability and resilience of foreign trade are particularly important.How to enhance the resilience of foreign trade,enhance its status and resistance to risks in global trade has become an important issue for China.In this study,we selected China’s foreign trade data from 2001 to 2023 and used entropy method,descriptive statistical analysis,ArcGIS software natural break-point method,spatial auto-correlation analysis method,etc.to conduct statistical analysis,constructing an international trade resilience theory and evaluation index system to comprehensively evaluate the spatial and temporal characteristics and evolution trend of China’s foreign trade resilience.At the same time,the study also used the barrier degree model and geographic detector method to analyze the trade resilience performance of China with 96 countries in 12 core indicators,covering manufacturing output,GDP,bilateral trade volume,etc.in multiple dimensions,and conducted a barrier factor and influencing factor analysis of China’s foreign trade resilience,and proposed policy suggestions for enhancing China’s foreign trade resilience.The main work and conclusions of this study are as follows :(1)Constructed an international trade resilience theoretical framework and evaluation index system,starting from the conceptual connotation of resilience,drawing on the theoretical framework of regional economic resilience,and on the basis of the analysis of the relationship between resilience and trade,combined with international trade theory,constructing a theoretical framework for evaluating foreign trade resilience.Under this theoretical framework,comprehensive comparative analysis was conducted on foreign trade resilience using core index evaluation method and comprehensive index evaluation method,and a foreign trade resilience evaluation index system was designed from the perspectives of resistance and adaptability of trade and recovery and adjustment ability of trade.(2)Summarized the overall characteristics of China’s foreign trade resilience.By using both single-indicator and comprehensive indicators,the overall characteristics of China’s foreign trade resilience from 2001 to 2023 were depicted and reflected a dynamic and gradually increasing trend of China’s foreign trade resilience since 2001.(3)The study found that the trade resilience of China with its major trading partners exhibits obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity.China’s foreign trade has shown good recovery and adjustment ability in response to external shocks in the four different stages of 2001-2007,2008-2012,2013-2019,and 2020-2023,and also has strong resistance and adaptability.Among them,the latter’s response speed is more obvious than that of the former.In terms of region,the trade resilience of China with North America,Northeast Asia,and Europe ranks among the top three;in terms of country,the individual differences in trade resilience are extremely large,with the G7countries(excluding Canada)and South Korea occupying the top seven ranks,and the trade resilience with the United States always remains high.In addition,the Netherlands,Spain,and Belgium are among the top ten,while Afghanistan ranks at the bottom.Compared with the long-term strong trade resilience of countries such as Europe and the United States,the trade resilience of China with Russia,Turkey,Brazil,Indonesia and other emerging economies has become increasingly stronger after 2008-2012,and the trade resilience of China with Southeast Asia(ASEAN)has also grown more noticeably.(4)Both the global Moran index and Moran scatterplot indicate a significant positive spatial autocorrelation between China’s trade resilience and that of other countries,meaning that countries with stronger trade resilience tend to be connected to neighboring countries with similar levels of resilience.Through spatial autocorrelation analysis,it was found that the hot-spot regions(high-high)were mainly concentrated in North America and Europe,while the cold-spot regions(low-low)were distributed in parts of Central Asia,West Asia,and Africa.The representatives of the "high-low" agglomeration area were India and Turkey.(5)The study found that manufacturing value-added,national GDP,and bilateral trade volume have significant impacts on the resilience of foreign trade.This study used the barrier degree model and geographic detector method to analyze the influence mechanism of the resilience of foreign trade.The barrier degree model identifies the main obstacle factors affecting China’s foreign trade resilience through indicators such as "factor contribution degree" and "barrier degree," including trade resistance and adaptability,trade recovery and adjustment ability,etc.The geographic detector method analyzes the influence of national GDP,the level of development of manufacturing industry,the level of development of high-tech industry,R&D spending,transportation and location conditions,investment and trade environment,etc.by combining the cross-sectional data of 2004,2010,2016,and 2021,and shows that national GDP,the level of development of manufacturing industry,container terminal throughput,air transport volume,and the status of foreign investment have the most significant impacts on the spatial differentiation pattern of foreign trade resilience.At the same time,there are national differences in the resilience of foreign trade with different types of countries,and when trading with developed countries,more attention should be paid to the construction of rule and system framework,while when trading with developing countries,emphasis should be placed on breaking trade barriers.(6)By combining the measurement results of China’s foreign trade resilience and the influencing factors,etc.,through optimizing the structure of goods trade,innovatively developing service trade,accelerating the development of trade new forms,enhancing the digitalization level of trade,building a green trade system,deepening trade facilitation cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative,strengthening risk prevention and control system,and creating a good development environment.Through using these measurements,the dynamic adaptability of China’s foreign trade resilience can be enhanced.The high resilience of foreign trade can help China tackle the global risks.This study systematically constructed an international trade cooperation resilience evaluation system covering multiple dimensions of indicators and applied it to the analysis of trade cooperation between China and various countries around the world.Through empirical research,the spatial and temporal distribution features of China’s trade resilience were revealed,and the underlying effect mechanisms were explored,providing valuable theoretical basis and empirical evidence for the government to formulate trade policies and enterprises to plan market layout.In addition,the study highlighted China’s increasingly important role in the global economic system and its positive role in global trade cooperation.更多还原