【作者】 王晶晶；

【导师】 程钰；

【作者基本信息】 山东师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2024， 博士

【摘要】 “双碳”目标的提出是治理温室气体排放和持续改善环境质量的有效方式,有利于加速中国能源转型进程、推动实现高质量发展。2022年全球与能源相关的碳排放量达到368亿吨以上,同比增长了0.9%,全球性能源危机推动气煤转换浪潮导致碳排放仍然面临较大压力。中国作为世界上最大的碳排放国家,于2020年提出力争在2030年实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和的目标任务,不仅对中国积极参与全球环境治理、实现区域低碳转型具有重要现实意义,同时也对调整能源结构、推动产业结构转型、提升能源效率和加速低碳技术研发等方面带来一定挑战,中国经济发展面对增速减缓与绿色转型的双重压力。“十四五”规划中提出到2025年中国单位国内生产总值能源消耗、二氧化碳排放分别降低13.5%、18%的目标,2024年全国两会工作报告中提出将“加强生态文明建设,推进绿色低碳发展,深入践行绿水青山就是金山银山的理念,协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长,建设人与自然和谐共生的美丽中国”作为重要篇章,均对新一轮科技革命和产业变革加速演进背景下的低碳转型发展提出了更高的要求。2022年,我国数字经济产值达50万亿元以上,占当年GDP比重约为41.5%,已经成为驱动我国经济发展重要引擎和关键力量,是贯彻“创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享”五大发展理念的集中体现,能够为实现经济社会可持续发展提供新的路径。数字经济是数字技术与人类社会全面融合的产物,是人类经济社会系统发展的新阶段,中国《“十四五”数字经济发展规划》指出“数字经济是经济高质量发展的新动力源,是低能耗、低排放、低污染的绿色经济”,依托数字技术改造传统生产方式有利于提升发展质量。互联网、大数据、人工智能等数字技术能够打破时空限制,推动技术进步、提升生产效率、优化产业结构和促进能源变革,同时能够精准识别、及时追踪新产生的生态环境问题,为科学保护、系统治理提供支撑,进而推进数字经济与绿色经济协同发展。基于上述背景,研究从地理学区域性、综合性和空间性视角出发,重点关注中国数字经济和碳排放的时空演化特征,聚焦数字经济发展对碳排放的影响效应与作用路径,从时间和空间维度对重点企业、典型区域等层面的数字经济和碳排放展开趋势分析和特征揭示,针对数字经济发展影响碳排放的机制开展理论与实证分析,对拓展数字经济与碳排放相关研究内容、实现区域绿色低碳转型具有重要的科学价值和应用价值。研究围绕“中国地级市数字经济发展对碳排放的影响研究”开展理论与实证分析,聚焦数字经济和碳排放在地级市层面的时空表现特征,理清宏观与微观层面上数字经济与碳排放动态演变的阶段性与区域性特征,验证二者的空间尺度效应,基于空间溢出视角考察数字经济对碳排放影响效应和作用路径,构建具有针对性、区域性、差异性的数字赋能碳减排的优化对策体系,为推进区域绿色低碳转型提供理论和实践支撑。主要研究内容和核心观点如下:第一,数字经济能够从生产端、供应链、消费端直接驱动区域绿色低碳转型发展;数字经济从规模集聚、结构优化、技术进步、低碳生活行为模式等多维机制间接影响区域碳减排;数字经济发展通过地理邻近促进区域合作与溢出,形成网络强化效应。第二,数字经济与碳排放在空间上呈现显著集聚组团分布特征。在数字经济企业层面,空间呈现京津冀、长三角、珠三角、成渝城市群显著的高值区域,具体表现为“城市群带动、沿海岸线集聚”的空间格局;在数字经济各子系统方面,数字经济建设成效在各区域间差距呈现缩小态势,高值区在空间上呈现零散分布的特点;数字经济基础环境呈现较为显著的集中分布态势,总体泰尔指数呈现“W”字型波浪式浮动趋势;数字经济创新能力空间分布以中值区为主导,山东半岛城市群表现为较为明显的中值集聚区域;数字经济关注程度在空间分布上具有不均衡特征。数字经济发展水平总指数时序呈上升趋势,空间集聚程度有所增强。在碳排放方面,研究时期内地级市碳排放规模在时序上呈现多“V”型变动趋势,碳排放规模在邻近地区间的集聚程度有所降低,高碳排放区域具有分散分布的空间特征。第三,数字经济建设成效、基础环境、创新能力和关注程度四个子系统对碳排放规模下降和碳排放效率上升表现为推动作用。在东部、中部、东北和南、北方地区均产生了碳减排的驱动作用,数字经济发展水平在资源型城市、非资源型城市以及京津冀城市群、长三角城市群、珠三角城市群和成渝城市群对碳排放的影响效应与全样本具有一致性。在分维度方面,数字经济建设成效、基础环境、创新能力和关注程度均有利于碳减排,但在不同区域的显著性和影响方向有所不同。在空间溢出方面,其对碳排放规模和效率的直接效应和间接效应呈现显著的空间异质性,表明数字红利在经济、社会和地理等的不均衡现象仍是一个需要关注的现象和问题。第四,经济集聚、产业智能化和绿色技术创新等因素在数字经济影响区域碳排放过程中具有中介效应。经济集聚因素在数字经济赋能碳减排过程中表现为正向部分中介效应;产业智能化碳排放效率呈现显著的负向影响效应,表明产业智能化在这一过程中存在部分中介效应,但未能发挥正向驱动作用;绿色技术创新在数字经济发展促进碳排放效率提升的过程中表现为正向的中介效应,但在驱动区域碳减排过程中的中介作用不显著,仍需进一步提升低碳数字技术研发和应用。同时,经济集聚、产业智能化、绿色技术创新等变量在数字经济驱动碳减排的影响效应中具有显著的区域差异。第五,基于现阶段面临的产业数字化转型过程规模大、周期长、复杂度高,不同行业转型步调难以统筹、数字经济基础设施建设自身节能降碳压力等问题,坚持低碳导向、绿色发展,数据赋能、创新驱动,普惠共享、示范引领等基本原则,进一步提出加强数字经济发展顶层设计、完善引导绿色能源消费体系、加快关键领域创新自主进程、强化区域减排协同联防联控、提升全社会数字经济关注度等具体对策,为数字经济赋能中国区域绿色低碳转型提供指导与借鉴。本文的创新之处主要体现在以下方面:一是拓展多尺度区域数字赋能碳减排的“规模-产业-创新”的联动过程与传导路径研究,深化和丰富地理学视角下数字经济影响碳排放的理论研究。搭建数字经济发展推动区域碳减排的理论机制,丰富与完善数字经济推动区域绿色低碳转型的多路径驱动机制理论,拓展区域视角下低碳性贡献转型相关研究,基于地理学区域和空间视角完善数字经济影响碳排放的理论研究体系。二是开展数字经济赋能碳减排的多尺度验证,系统建立区域绿色低碳转型优化对策体系。科学揭示中国数字经济发展与碳排放规模、效率的动态演变过程和趋势,系统构建多维视角下数字经济及碳排放的时空演进机理。基于区域和空间视角拓展数字经济影响碳排放的作用机制与传导路径,为指导不同地区数字赋能碳减排的政策制定提供科学支撑。三是融合地图API、文本分析、平台指数等大数据方法和手段,建立和完善中国数字经济测度评价体系。充分发挥地图API地理编码、百度平台搜索指数、企业年度报告的文本提取等大数据手段在地理学研究中的数据处理、分析和应用能力,将数字经济行业企业相关点状数据纳入中国数字经济发展评价体系,推进不同尺度数字经济评价和赋能区域绿色低碳转型的理论和实践研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 The dual-carbon target is an effective way to manage greenhouse gas emissions and continuously improve environmental quality,which is conducive to accelerating China’s energy transition and promoting high-quality development.2022 global energy-related carbon emissions reached more than 36.8 billion tons,up 0.9% year-on-year,and the global energy crisis is driving a wave of gas-coal switching,resulting in carbon emissions still facing greater pressure.The global energy crisis is driving a wave of gas-coal switching,resulting in carbon emissions still facing greater pressure.As the world’s largest carbon emitter,China proposed in2020 to strive to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060,which is not only of great practical significance for China’s active participation in global environmental governance and the realization of regional low-carbon transformation,but also poses certain challenges to the adjustment of the energy structure,the promotion of the transformation of the industrial structure,the enhancement of energy efficiency and the acceleration of the research and development of low-carbon technologies.China’s economic development is facing the double pressure of slowing growth and green transformation.The 14 th Five-Year Plan puts forward the target of reducing energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 13.5% and 18% respectively by 2025,and the report of the National People’s Congress and the National People’s Congress of 2024 puts forward "strengthening ecological civilization construction and promoting green and low-carbon development.In-depth practice of the concept of green mountains is the golden mountains,synergistic promotion of carbon reduction,pollution reduction,expansion of green,growth,and the construction of a beautiful China in harmony with nature" as an important chapter,all of which puts forward higher requirements for the development of low-carbon transformation in the context of the accelerated evolution of the new round of scientific and technological revolutions and industrial changes.In 2022,the scale of China’s digital economy will reach more than 50 trillion yuan,accounting for about 41.5% of GDP,which has become an important engine and key force driving China’s economic development,and is a centralized manifestation of the implementation of the five development concepts of “innovation,coordination,greenness,openness,and sharing”,which can provide a new path for realizing sustainable economic and social development.Digital economy is a product of the comprehensive integration of digital technology and human society,and a new stage in the development of human economic and social systems.China’s 14 th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Digital Economy points out that “the digital economy is a new source of power for high-quality development of the economy,and it’s a green economy with low energy consumption,low emissions and low pollution”,and it is conducive to improving the quality of development by relying on digital technology to transform traditional production methods.Digital technologies such as the Internet,big data,artificial intelligence and other digital technologies can break the limitations of time and space,promote technological progress,enhance production efficiency,optimize industrial structure and promote energy change,and at the same time,can accurately identify and timely track newly generated ecological and environmental problems,provide support for scientific protection and systematic governance,and thus promote the synergistic development of digital economy and green economy.Based on the above background,the study focuses on the spatial and temporal evolution of digital economy and carbon emissions from the regional,comprehensive and spatial perspectives of geography,focuses on the effects and paths of the digital economy on carbon emissions,analyzes the trends and reveals the characteristics of the digital economy and carbon emissions at the levels of key enterprises and typical regions in the temporal and spatial dimensions,and conducts theoretical and empirical analyses to investigate the mechanisms of the digital economy affecting carbon emissions.The analyses are of great scientific and applied value for expanding the contents of research on digital economy and carbon emission and realizing regional green and low-carbon transformation.Based on the theoretical foundations of regional sustainable development and low carbon economy,the study focuses on the theoretical and empirical analyses of The Impact of China’s Digital Economy on Carbon Emissions and Countermeasures,and integrates the methods and means of literature review,summarization,and big data analysis,focusing on the spatial and temporal characteristics of the digital economy and carbon emissions at different levels.This paper will focus on the temporal and spatial characteristics of digital economy and carbon emission at different levels,clarify the stage and regional characteristics of the dynamic evolution of digital economy and carbon emission at the macro and micro levels,verify the spatial scale effect,examine the effect and path of digital economy on carbon emission based on spatial spillover perspective,and construct an optimization countermeasure system of digital empowerment and carbon emission reduction with pertinence,regionality and difference,so as to provide theoretical and practical support for the advancement of regional green and lowcarbon transformation.The main research content and core viewpoints are as follows:Firstly,the digital economy can directly drive the development of regional green lowcarbon transformation from the production side,supply chain and consumption side;it indirectly affects regional carbon emission reduction from the multi-dimensional mechanisms of scale agglomeration,structural optimization,technological progress and low-carbon living behavioral patterns;and the development of the digital economy promotes regional cooperation and spillovers through geographic proximity to form a network-enhancing effect.Secondly,the digital economy and carbon emissions are characterized by significant spatial agglomeration and clustering.At the level of digital economy enterprises,the space presents Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and ChengduChongqing city clusters as significant high-value areas,presenting a spatial pattern of “driven by city clusters and clustering along the coastline”;at the level of various subsystems of the digital economy,the gap in the effectiveness of the digital economy construction among various regions presents a narrowing trend,and the high-value areas are characterized by fragmented distribution;the digital economy development promotes regional cooperation and spillover through geographical proximity.In terms of the subsystems of the digital economy,the gap between the construction effectiveness of the digital economy in each region shows a narrowing trend,and the high-value areas are spatially scattered;the basic environment of the digital economy shows a more significant centralized distribution trend,and the overall Tyrell Index shows a “W”-type wave floating trend;the spatial distribution of the innovation capacity of the digital economy is dominated by the medium-value areas,and the Shandong Peninsula city cluster shows a more obvious medium-value agglomeration area;the degree of concern for the digital economy has uneven characteristics in spatial distribution.distribution is characterized by imbalance.The total index of digital economy development level shows an upward trend in time series,and the degree of spatial agglomeration has increased.In terms of carbon emission,the carbon emission scale of prefecture-level cities in the study period shows a multi-“V” trend in time sequence,and the degree of concentration of carbon emission scale among neighboring regions has been reduced,and the high carbon emission areas have a decentralized distribution of spatial characteristics.Thirdly,the four subsystems of digital economy construction effectiveness,basic environment,innovation capacity and degree of concern all play a role in promoting carbon emission scale and efficiency of digital-driven prefectural cities.The driving role of carbon emission reduction was produced in the eastern,central,northeastern,and southern and northern regions,and the influence effect of the digital economy development level on carbon emission in resource cities,non-resource cities,and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration,and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration was consistent with that of the whole sample.In terms of sub-dimensions,the effectiveness of digital economy construction,basic environment,innovation capacity and degree of attention are all favorable to carbon emission reduction,but the significance and direction of influence differ in different regions.In terms of spatial spillover,its direct and indirect effects on the scale and efficiency of carbon emissions show significant spatial heterogeneity,indicating that the imbalance of the digital dividend in the economy,society and geography is still a phenomenon and a problem that needs attention.Fourthly,factors such as economic agglomeration,industrial intelligence and green technology innovation have a mediating effect in the process of digital economy influencing regional carbon emissions.Economic agglomeration factors show a positive partial intermediary effect in the process of carbon emission reduction empowered by the digital economy;the carbon emission efficiency of industrial intelligence shows a significant negative impact effect,indicating that industrial intelligence has a partial intermediary effect in this process,but fails to play a positive driving role;green technology innovation shows a positive intermediary effect in the process of carbon emission efficiency enhancement promoted by the development of the digital economy,but it has a positive intermediary effect in the process of The intermediary effect in the process of driving regional carbon emission reduction is not significant,and there is still a need to further enhance the research and development and application of low-carbon digital technologies.At the same time,economic agglomeration,industrial intelligence,green technology innovation and other variables have significant regional differences in the impact effect of digital economy-driven carbon emission reduction.Fifthly,based on the large scale,long cycle and high complexity of the industrial digital transformation process faced at this stage,the difficulty of coordinating the pace of transformation in different industries,and the pressure of energy saving and carbon reduction in the construction of digital economy infrastructure,we insist on the basic principles of lowcarbon orientation and green development,data empowerment and innovation drive,inclusive sharing and demonstration leading,and further put forward the top-level design for strengthening the development of the digital economy,perfecting the guidance of green It further proposes specific countermeasures such as strengthening the top-level design of digital economy development,improving the system of guiding green energy consumption,accelerating the process of innovation and autonomy in key areas,strengthening the regional emission reduction synergy,joint prevention and control,and raising the attention of the whole society to the digital economy,so as to provide guidance and reference for the digital economy to empower the green and low-carbon transformation of China’s regions.The innovations of this paper are mainly reflected in the following aspects: firstly,it expands the research on the “scale-industry-innovation” linkage process and transmission path of multi-scale regional digital empowerment of carbon emissions,and deepens and enriches the impact of the digital economy on carbon emissions from a geographical perspective.Build a theoretical mechanism for the development of the digital economy to promote regional carbon emission reductions,enrich and improve the multi-path driving mechanism theory for the digital economy to promote regional green and low-carbon transformation,and expand research on low-carbon contribution transformation from a regional perspective,based on geographical regional and spatial perspectives.Improve the theoretical research system on the impact of digital economy on carbon emissions.The second is to carry out multi-scale verification of carbon emission reduction enabled by the digital economy and systematically establish a regional green and low-carbon transformation optimization strategy system.Scientifically reveal the dynamic evolution process and trend of the scale and efficiency of China’s digital economy and carbon emissions,and systematically construct the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism of the digital economy and carbon emissions from a multi-dimensional perspective.Expand the mechanism and transmission path of the digital economy’s impact on carbon emissions based on regional and spatial perspectives,and provide scientific support to guide the formulation of policies for digitally empowered carbon emissions reduction in different regions.The third is to integrate big data methods and means such as map API,text analysis,and platform index to establish and improve China’s digital economy measurement and evaluation system.Give full play to the data processing,analysis and application capabilities of big data methods such as map API geocoding,Baidu platform search index,and text extraction of corporate annual reports in geographical research,and incorporate point data related to enterprises in the digital economy industry into the development of China’s digital economy Evaluation system to promote theoretical and practical research on digital economy evaluation at different scales and empowering regional green and low-carbon transformation.更多还原