【作者】 李慧；

【导师】 姚西龙；

【作者基本信息】 太原理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2023， 博士

【摘要】 发电侧储能可以平抑可再生能源的间歇性,提高可再生能源电力的利用率,是提高电力系统安全经济运行水平、解决可再生能源电力消纳问题的有效措施,对于“碳达峰、碳中和”目标的实现具有重要的意义。可再生能源发电侧储能技术的投资决策是储能规划的重要环节,也是可再生能源发电企业亟待解决的问题之一。已有的研究论证了可再生能源发电侧储能技术的可行性,如何在经济效益、环境效益和投资风险等综合视角下,确定可再生能源发电侧储能技术的最优投资方案还需要进一步研究。因此,本文在理论体系和实践应用方面具有十分重要的意义。为了对可再生能源发电侧储能技术的投资决策进行研究,本文以抽水蓄能、压缩空气储能、磷酸铁锂电池储能和风电电解水制氢为研究对象,构建了兼顾能源、经济、环境、技术与社会多维度的可再生能源发电侧储能技术投资决策理论分析框架。在此基础上,本文对可再生能源发电侧储能技术的经济效益、环境效益和投资风险进行了研究,构建了可再生能源发电侧储能技术投资决策模型,提出企业单一目标和多目标组合下的发电侧储能技术投资方案。本文的主要研究内容和研究结果如下:在可再生能源发电侧储能技术投资决策的理论分析方面,本文首先分析了可再生能源发电侧储能系统的构成及运行机制,明确了本文的研究范围;其次,分析了可再生能源发电侧储能的系统功能,揭示了可再生能源发电侧储能对能源-经济-环境系统的影响机理;然后,从经济效益、环境效益、投资风险和投资方案选择四个方面对可再生能源发电侧储能技术投资决策的相关理论进行分析。在此基础上,构建了兼顾能源、经济、环境、技术与社会多维度的可再生能源发电侧储能技术投资决策理论分析框架。在可再生能源发电侧储能技术的经济效益方面,本文构建了可再生能源发电侧储能技术成本收益模型,对可再生能源发电侧储能技术的经济效益进行研究,同时对不同发电侧储能技术的平准化成本进行比较,并以风电电解水制氢技术为例进行了盈利能力分析和敏感性分析。研究结果表明:平准化成本由低到高依次是风电电解水制氢、抽水蓄能、压缩空气储能和磷酸铁锂电池储能。平准化成本主要来源于投资成本和运维成本。影响风电电解水制氢平准化制氢成本的重要因素是技术进步、风电电价和转换器效率。影响风电电解水制氢净现值和内部收益率的重要因素是氢气价格、电解槽能源消耗强度和风电电价。在可再生能源发电侧储能技术的环境效益方面,本文利用生命周期评价法对可再生能源发电侧储能技术的大气特征物质排放量、生态环境影响和资源消耗量进行了研究,分析了主要材料投入量的变化对发电侧储能技术环境效益的影响。研究结果表明:抽水蓄能和磷酸铁锂电池储能的CO₂排放主要发生在生产阶段,压缩空气储能和风电电解水制氢的CO₂排放主要发生在运行阶段。生态环境影响由高到低依次是磷酸铁锂电池储能、压缩空气储能、风电电解水制氢和抽水蓄能。对抽水蓄能环境效益最敏感的材料是铁、柴油和水泥,对磷酸铁锂电池储能环境效益最敏感的材料是丁苯橡胶、聚偏氟乙烯和磷酸铁锂,对压缩空气储能和风电电解水制氢环境效益最敏感的是电力。在可再生能源发电侧储能技术的投资风险方面,本文构建了可再生能源发电侧储能技术投资风险评价模型,基于模糊综合评价法对不同发电侧储能技术的投资风险进行评价。研究结果表明:可再生能源发电侧储能技术的投资风险为中风险,投资风险水平由高到低依次是风电电解水制氢、磷酸铁锂电池储能、压缩空气储能和抽水蓄能。以风电电解水制氢技术为例,一级指标风险由高到低依次是技术风险、管理风险、环境风险、经济风险、市场风险和政策风险,其中技术风险、管理风险和环境风险属于高风险,是决策者需要重点关注的风险。在可再生能源发电侧储能投资方案选择方面,本文构建了基于区间二型梯形模糊集PROMETHEE-II的可再生能源发电侧储能技术投资决策模型,对发电侧储能技术进行综合评价并确定最佳的投资方案,分析了企业单一目标和多目标组合对可再生能源发电侧储能投资方案选择的影响。研究结果表明:可再生能源发电侧储能技术的最优投资顺序为抽水蓄能、风电电解水制氢、压缩空气储能和磷酸铁锂电池储能。当企业考虑经济效益优先、绿色发展优先和社会效益优先时,企业会优先选择风电电解水制氢技术;当企业考虑技术优先和资源节约优先时,抽水蓄能成为最好的技术选择;当企业采取多目标组合时,大部分情景下抽水蓄能是最优的技术选择,磷酸铁锂电池储能是最差的技术选择。根据上述研究结果,本文提出了可再生能源发电侧储能技术的投资对策。第一,可再生能源发电企业可以加大储能技术的研发投入,引进先进的储能设备,利用技术进步强化规模效应,促进发电侧储能投资成本的下降。同时,积极参与辅助服务市场,多渠道拓宽发电侧储能的收益来源。第二,企业需要制定发电侧储能技术污染防治方案,加强环境监测与管理,关注污染物排放的关键阶段,降低高敏感度材料的使用。第三,企业需要重点关注发电侧储能技术的高风险指标,提出相应的风险防范措施。同时,加强发电侧储能全生命周期风险管理,设置风险预警系统。第四,企业除了需要考虑储能技术的综合效益外,还应结合自身的发展目标,制定与企业发展目标相适应的发电侧储能投资方案。本文对可再生能源发电侧储能技术的经济效益、环境效益和投资风险进行了研究,提出企业单一目标和多目标组合下的发电侧储能技术投资方案。本文的创新工作体现在以下方面:第一,构建了兼顾能源、经济、环境、技术与社会多维度的可再生能源发电侧储能技术投资决策理论分析框架。第二,构建了考虑模糊性与不确定性的可再生能源发电侧储能技术投资决策模型。第三,建立了可再生能源电解水制氢和传统储能技术经济效益和环境效益对比的统一标准。第四,构建了经济、技术、环境、管理、市场和政策多维度相融合的可再生能源发电侧储能技术投资风险评价指标体系。本文的研究成果能够为可再生能源发电侧储能技术的投资决策提供参考,有利于推动“碳达峰、碳中和”目标的顺利实现。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy storage on renewable energy generation side can smooth the intermittence of renewable energy and improve the utilization rate of renewable energy power.It is an effective measure to improve the safe and economic operation level of the power system and solve the problem of renewable energy power consumption.It is of great significance to the realization of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.The investment decision-making of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side is an important link of energy storage planning,and also one of the urgent problems for renewable energy power generation enterprises.Existing researches have demonstrated the feasibility of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side.How to determine the optimal investment scheme of energy storage technologies from the comprehensive perspective such as economic benefits,environmental benefits and investment risk still deserves further study.Therefore,this paper has a very important significance in the theoretical system and practical application.In order to study the investment decision-making of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,this paper takes pumped energy storage,compressed air energy storage,lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage and hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power as the research objects,and constructs a theoretical analysis framework,which takes into account energy,economy,environment,technology and society dimensions.On this basis,this paper studies the economic benefits,environmental benefits and investment risk of energy storage technologies,constructs the investment decision-making model of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,and proposes the investment scheme of energy storage technologies under the single objective and multiple objectives portfolio.The main research contents and results of this paper are as follows:In terms of the theoretical analysis of the investment decision-making of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,this paper firstly analyzes the composition and operation mechanism of energy storage on renewable energy generation side,and defines the research scope.Secondly,this paper analyzes the system function of energy storage on renewable energy generation side,and reveals the influence mechanism of energy storage system on energy-economy-environment system.Finally,this paper analyzes the relevant theory of the investment decision-making of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side from four aspects,including economic benefits,environmental benefits,investment risk and investment scheme selection.On this basis,a theoretical analysis framework for the investment decision-making of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side is constructed,which takes into account energy,economy,environment,technology and society dimensions.In terms of the economic benefits of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,this paper constructs a cost-benefit model to evaluate the economic benefits of energy storage technologies and compares the levelized cost of different energy storage technologies.The profitability analysis and sensitivity analysis are carried out with the example of hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power.The results show that the levelized cost from low to high is hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power,pumped energy storage,compressed air energy storage and lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage.The levelized cost mainly comes from investment cost and operation and maintenance cost.The important factors affecting the levelized cost of hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power are technological progress,electricity price of wind power and converter efficiency.The important factors affecting the net present value and internal rate of return are hydrogen price,energy consumption intensity of electrolytic cell and electricity price of wind power.In terms of the environmental benefits of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,the life cycle assessment method is used to calculate the atmospheric characteristic material emission,ecological environment impact and resource consumption.Moreover,this paper studies the influence of the input change of main material on the environmental benefits of energy storage technologies.The results show that the CO₂ emissions of pumped energy storage and lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage mainly occur in the production stage,while the CO₂ emissions of compressed air energy storage and hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power mainly occur in the operation stage.The ecological environment impact from high to low is lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage,compressed air energy storage,hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power and pumped energy storage.The most sensitive materials to the environmental benefits of pumped energy storage are iron,diesel and cement,the most sensitive materials to the environmental benefits of lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage are styrene butadiene rubber,polyvinylidene fluoride and lithium iron phosphate,and the most sensitive material to the environmental benefits of compressed air energy storage and hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power is electricity.In terms of the investment risk of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,this paper constructs an investment risk evaluation model of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,and evaluates the investment risk of energy storage technologies based on the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method.The results show that the investment risk of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side is medium risk,and the investment risk from high to low is hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power,lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage,compressed air energy storage and pumped energy storage.Taking hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power as an example,the risk of the first-level indicators from high to low is technical risk,management risk,environmental risk,economic risk,market risk and policy risk,among which technical risk,management risk and environmental risk belong to high risk,which are the risks that decision makers need to focus on.In terms of the investment scheme selection of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,the investment decision-making model based on the interval type-2trapezoidal fuzzy number sets and PROMETHEE-II method is constructed.This paper evaluates the comprehensive benefits of energy storage technologies and determines the optimal investment scheme.Moreover,this paper analyzes the impact of single objective and multiple objectives portfolio on the investment scheme selection of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side.The results show that the optimal investment sequence is pumped energy storage,hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power,compressed air energy storage and lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage.When enterprises consider the economic benefits priority,green development priority and social benefits priority,enterprises will preferentially choose hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power.When enterprises consider technology priority and resource conservation priority,pumped energy storage become the optimal technology selection.When enterprises adopt multiple objectives portfolio,pumped energy storage is the optimal technology selection in most scenarios,and lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage is the worst technology selection.Based on the above research results,this paper puts forward the investment strategy of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side.First,renewable energy generation enterprises can increase the investment in the research and development of energy storage technologies,introduce advanced energy storage equipment,use technological progress to strengthen the scale effect,and promote the reduction of investment cost of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side.At the same time,enterprises need to actively participate in the auxiliary service market,and broaden the income sources of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side through multiple channels.Secondly,enterprises need to formulate pollution prevention and control plans,strengthen environmental monitoring and management,pay attention to the key stage of pollutant emission,and reduce the use of highly sensitive materials.Thirdly,enterprises need to focus on the high-risk indicators and put forward the corresponding risk prevention measures.At the same time,the full life cycle risk management should be strengthened,and the risk warning system should be set up.Fourthly,in addition to considering the comprehensive benefits of energy storage technologies,enterprises should also formulate the investment scheme that are compatible with their own development objectives.This paper studies the economic benefits,environmental benefits and investment risk of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,and proposes the investment scheme of energy storage technologies under the single objective and multiple objectives portfolio.The innovation of this paper is reflected in the following aspects:First,a theoretical analysis framework for the investment decision-making of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side is constructed,which takes into account energy,economy,environment,technology and society dimensions.Secondly,an investment decision-making model of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side is constructed considering fuzziness and uncertainty.Thirdly,a unified standard is established to compare the economic benefits and environmental benefits of hydrogen production from water electrolysis by renewable energy and traditional energy storage technologies.Fourthly,an investment risk evaluation indicator system is constructed,which integrates economy,technology,environment,management,market and policy dimensions.The research results of this paper can provide reference for the investment decision-making of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,and is conducive to promoting the smooth realization of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.更多还原