【作者】 徐淑华；

【导师】 孙传旺；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 能源经济学， 2022， 博士

【摘要】 随着社会经济的发展,道路交通运输需求和城市机动车拥有量急剧增加,从而导致了严重的道路交通拥堵。道路拥堵不仅降低了社会经济活动效率,也使得交通污染排放越来越严重,因而恶化了城市生活环境。研究城市道路发展与交通污染,是分析城市道路交通发展现状、探索道路交通发展瓶颈、走出交通行业发展困境的必经之路。本文主要研究交通拥堵与空气污染问题。本文首先从相关性的角度,研究了道路拥堵与空气污染的统计学相关关系,从解决模型的内生性出发,通过选择合适的工具变量研究了道路拥堵对空气污染的影响关系。此外,从交通供给侧的角度,本文从道路建设质量——用城市道路面积率水平表示——探索了城市道路建设对污染的减排作用,而在对道路面积率指标拆解成城市道路网密度和道路宽度后,进一步研究实际影响污染和改善道路环境的因素。最后,从交通需求侧的角度,本文研究了交通需求限制——机动车限行政策——管理政策的减排效果,采用双重差分模型对政策作用及不同类型的政策效果进行了分类讨论,此外,在理论分析的基础上,采用不同的中介变量检验了不同类型的限行政策对污染影响的中介效应,得到了政策与污染影响之间的传导方式,从而获取了污染减排的重要影响路径。研究发现,城市道路拥堵确实加重了城市空气污染水平,当采用工具变量后,道路拥堵对空气质量的影响依然显著为正。而从交通供给增加来看,城市道路建设水平,即道路面积率与空气污染程度呈现负向的影响关系,即随着城市道路面积率的增加,城市交通基础设施逐步完善,交通污染引起的空气污染程度降低,而这一效果在考虑空间外溢作用后依然显著存在。此外,从城市道路建设与规划水平来看,城市道路网密度的增加可能才是提高城市空气质量的主要原因,而道路宽度的增加则对空气质量没有显著影响。从交通需求控制来看,一般限行政策和特殊限行政策都对城市空气质量产生了显著影响,并且后者更有效。其次,长期持续的一般限行政策通过降低居民对机动车的需求和购买对空气质量产生积极影响,短期的特殊的限制政策通过缓解道路拥堵和增加交通流量来缓解机动车污染物排放。因此,未来地方政府应加强城市交通拥堵与交通污染的联合防治工作,在完善城市道路规划与道路网体系建设的同时,加强交通需求管理与公共交通建设,以缓解道路拥堵与交通污染问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of society and economy,the demand for road transportation and the number of urban vehicles in cities have increasing dramatically,resulting in serious road traffic congestion.Heavy road traffic congestion not only reduces the efficiency of social and economic activities,but also led to serious traffic pollution emissions and deteriorates the urban living environment.Analyzing urban traffic development and road pollution is the key way to analyze the status quo of urban road traffic development,explore the bottleneck of road traffic development,and get out of the plight of the transportation industry.This article first studied the statistical correlation between road congestion and air pollution and analyze the impact of road congestion on air pollution by selecting appropriate instrumental variables from the perspective of solving endogeneity.In addition,from the perspective of the transportation supply side,this article explores the effect of urban road construction on pollution reduction by taking the road area rate index as the quality of road construction.After splitting the road area rate index into urban road network density and road width,we find that it is the road network density that affect pollution and improve the road environment.Finally,from the perspective of the traffic demand side,we then analyze the emission reduction effects of different vehicle restriction policy from the transportation supply side.In addition,different mediating variables were used to test the mediating effects of policies’ pollution impacts,and analyze the influence path of pollution reduction.The results show that urban road congestion does increase the level of urban air pollution.After considering the endogenous of Congestion Delay Index,the impact of traffic congestion on air quality is still significantly positive.For traffic supply,the increasing the road area rate have a positive impact on air quality,that is urban transportation infrastructure and air quality are gradually improved by increasing road area rate.The effects are still significant after considering the effect of spatial spillover.In addition,from the perspective of urban road construction and planning,the increase in urban road network density may be the main reason for improving urban air quality,while the increase in road width has no significant impact on air quality.From the perspective of traffic demand control,both general restriction policies and special restriction policies have significant impacts on urban air quality,and the latter is more effective.beisides,the long-term continuous general restriction policy has a positive impact on air quality by reducing residents’ demand for and purchase of motor vehicles.Short-term special restriction policies ease the emission of motor vehicle pollutants by alleviating road congestion and increasing traffic flow.Therefore,in the future,local governments should strengthen the joint prevention and control of urban traffic congestion and traffic pollution.Together with improving urban road planning and road network system construction,governments should also strengthen traffic demand management and public transportation construction to alleviate road congestion and traffic pollution.更多还原