【作者】 刘伟；

【导师】 张协奎；

【作者基本信息】 广西大学 ， 区域经济学， 2020， 博士

【副题名】基于土地、资本和劳动力的视角

【摘要】 习近平总书记在十九大报告提出,以及在十九届四中全会中进一步强调,“加快建立多主体供给、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度”。城市养老地产作为房地产与养老服务融合的新业态,是对多主体供给、多渠道保障和租购并举制度的重要回应。当前,城市养老地产既受房地产企业、保险行业、养老服务企业等实务界的热捧,尤其被视为当下房地产企业业务转型的重要方向,以及房地产新一轮产业升级的重要选择,也受到房地产、区域经济、公共管理等领域专家学者的关注。综合已有研究发现,较少学者基于经济学供需这一基本理论命题开展城市养老地产供需平衡影响因素研究。本研究为深入探究这一问题,首先,基于要素视角对养老地产供需平衡的影响因素进行理论分析;其次,运用我国289个地级市2010-2017年的面板数据,构建各地级市养老地产供给指标体系和需求指标体系,对供给指数和需求指数进行测算,并运用耦合协调模型测算出各地级市养老地产供需耦合协调度水平;再次,在深入分析土地供给、资本错配和劳动力错配影响养老地产供需平衡机理的基础上,运用经验回归模型、OLS模型、Probit模型,按照对养老地产供给和需求的影响、供需耦合协调度的影响、如何改善供需平衡三个步骤层层迭进进行实证检验。通过前述理论分析及实证检验,可以得出如下结论:(1)各地级市养老地产供求指数总体呈上升趋势并存在区域异质性。区域异质性主要表现在东、中、西区域和城市间异质性。(2)各地级市养老地产供需耦合协调时间演变趋好,空间上呈现区域异质性。时间特征具体表现为总体趋势由严重不协调向基本不协调、高度协调方向发展。空间特征具体表现为东部地区养老地产耦合协调度大于中、西部地区,中部地区略大于西部地区。(3)土地供给显著性影响城市养老地产供需平衡。具体体现在,土地供给显著性正向影响养老地产的供给,通过消费预期传导机制负向影响养老地产的需求,因而显著性正向影响养老地产供给系统与需求系统的耦合协调度,并且通过改善养老地产的“供不应求”状态促进养老地产的供需平衡。(4)资本错配显著性影响城市养老地产供需平衡。具体体现在,资本错配通过影响全要素生产率、信贷歧视等显著性负向影响养老地产的供给,通过增加储蓄、刺激消费等因素正向影响养老地产的需求,因而显著性负向影响养老地产供给系统与需求系统的耦合协调度,并且通过改善养老地产的“供过于求”状态促进养老地产的供需平衡。(5)劳动力错配显著性影响城市养老地产供需平衡。具体体现在,劳动力错配对养老地产供给的影响不显著,通过工资差异效应下相对效应水平的降低对养老地产需求呈显著负向影响,因而显著性负向影响养老地产供给系统与需求系统的耦合协调度,并且通过改善养老地产的“供不应求”状态促进养老地产的供需平衡。基于上述结论,本研究认为为促进城市养老地产的发展,应采取如下措施:首先,推进土地供给侧改革,通过税制改革降低财政对土地的依赖,根据土地供给能力及市场需求因城施策;其次,促进资本的合理配置,合理发挥利率对养老地产业的调控,进一步优化补贴和税收优惠的配置,培育和完善多种类多层次资本体系,降低融资约束;再次,实现劳动力自由流动,以产业结构促进劳动力结构的完善,持续深化户籍制度促进劳动力流动,加大对人力资本投资和培养的力度,破除地区、部门和行业间人才流动的壁垒。更多还原

【Abstract】 General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward in the report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and further emphasized in the Fourth Plenary Session of the19 th CPC Central Committee,"accelerate the establishment of a housing system with multi-subject supply,multi-channel security,and simultaneous rent-purchase".Urban pension real estate,as a new format for the integration of real estate and pension services,is an important response to the multi-subject supply,multi-channel security and rent-purchase concurrent system.At present,urban pension real estate is popular with real estate companies,insurance industries,pension service companies and other practical circles,and is particularly regarded as an important direction for business transformation of real estate companies,and is an vital choice for real estate industry’s new round of industrial upgrading.They have appeal the attention of experts and scholars in the fields of real estate,regional economy and public management.Based on the existing research,few scholars have conducted research on the factors affecting the balance between supply and demand for urban pension real estate based on the basic theoretical proposition of economic supply and demand.In order to explore this issue in depth,first of all,this paper theoretically analyzes the influencing factors and mechanism of the balance between supply and demand of pension real estate;secondly,using the panel data of 289 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2017,construct municipal-level pensions Real estate supplied by index system and demanded by index system.The supply index and demand index are measured,and the coupling coordination model is used to calculate the level of coordination between the supply and demand of senior real estate in various cities;Thirdly,on the basis of further analysis of the mechanism of land supply,capital mismatch and labor mismatch which impact on the balance between supply and demand of pension real estate,using the empirical regression model,OLS model,Probit model to test the impact on the supply and demand of pension real estate,supply and demand coupling coordination degree and whether the supply-demand balance can be improved step by step is tested empirically.Through the foregoing theoretical analysis and empirical tests,the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)The supply and demand index of elderly real estate in various cities shows an upward trend and there is regional heterogeneity.Regional heterogeneity is mainly manifested in the regional heterogeneity in the east,middle and west.(2)The time evolution of the coupling and coordination of the supply and demand of elderly real estate in various cities is getting better,and the spatial heterogeneity is spatial.The characteristics of time are specifically manifested as a general uncoordinated development towards a basic uncoordinated and highly coordinated direction.The spatial characteristics are specifically manifested as the coupling and coordination degree of pension real estate in the eastern region which is greater than that in the central and western regions,and the central region is slightly larger than the western region.(3)Significance of land supply affects the balance between supply and demand of urban pension real estate.Specifically,land supply significantly affects the supply of pension real estate through the price transmission mechanism,and negatively affects the demand for pension real estate through the consumption expectation transmission mechanism,thus significantly affecting the coupling and coordination of the pension real estate supply system and demand system.And it can not improve the balance of supply and demand for pension real estate.(4)The significant mismatch of capital affects the balance between supply and demand of urban pension real estate.Specifically,capital mismatch negatively affects the supply of pension real estate by affecting significant factor productivity,credit discrimination and other significant negative factors,and positively affects the demand for pension real estate by increasing savings and stimulating consumption.The coupling and coordination of the supply system and the demand system,and can improve the balance of supply and demand of pension real estate.(5)The significant mismatch of labor force affects the balance between supply and demand of urban pension real estate.Specifically,the effect of labor mismatch on the supply of pension real estate is not significant,and the reduction of the relative effect level under the wage difference effect has a significant negative impact on the demand for pension real estate,thus significantly negatively affecting the coupling of the pension real estate supply system and demand system Coordination degree,and it can not improve the balance of supply and demand of pension real estate.Based on the above conclusions,this study believes that in order to promote the development of urban pension real estate,the following measures should be taken: first,promote land supply-side reform,reduce fiscal dependence on land through tax reform,and implement city-based policies based on land supply capacity and market demand;Second,promote the rational allocation of capital,reasonably exert interest rates on the regulation of the pension industry,further optimize the allocation of subsidies and tax incentives,cultivate and improve various types of multi-level capital systems,and reduce financing constraints;again,realizeing the free flow of labor and industry,the structure promotes the improvement of the labor force structure,continues to deepen the household registration system to promote labor mobility,increases the investment and cultivation of human capital,and breaks down the barriers for talent mobility among regions,departments,and industries.更多还原