【作者】 刘斌；

【导师】 张飞涟；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 土木工程规划与管理， 2022， 博士

【摘要】 随着人口不断增长、城镇化提速和工业化深入发展,我国对水资源的需求和压力将持续增加,供需矛盾将更加突出。基于未来可能出现的情景对水资源承载能力进行合理预测并提出优化政策建议,可以为区域可持续水资源管理提供参考。然而,预测并且优化未来中国水资源承载能力的研究还非常有限。为了弥补上述不足,本文结合自然-社会二元水循环理论、可持续发展理论、系统动力学理论、多目标决策理论、合作博弈论等理论方法,从水资源承载能力内在机理、情景预测、优化决策、政策建议几个方面,开展了基于情景设计的水资源承载能力预测与优化研究。主要研究内容和结论包括:(1)揭示了水资源承载能力影响变量间的内在机理。本文基于动态弹性视角解析了水资源承载能力的载体-负荷结构,基于载体-负荷结构和系统动力学理论分析了水资源承载能力核心变量的因果关系,并根据因果关系和数据可得性识别了影响水资源承载能力的社会、经济、水资源、生态环境四类变量,进一步明确了社会、经济、水资源和生态环境四个子系统内部变量的上下游关系,并通过水资源承载能力预测流图及公式揭示了水资源承载能力76个影响变量间的内在机理。(2)预测了基准情景下未来中国水资源承载能力。本文界定了仿真模型的时间和空间边界,结合逻辑函数、数学回归等方法确定了所有变量的参数及方程,以现状延续为基础构建了中国水资源承载能力仿真模型,并通过历史检验和敏感性分析验证了模型的有效性。结果表明,基准情景供水量无法满足中国社会经济发展的需求,需要通过调整影响变量参数进行方案优化,以提高供需比。(3)基于情景设计预测了未来中国水资源承载能力。考虑未来的变化环境,本文设计了由三种水资源条件(即平水、丰水和枯水)和五种优化方案(即经济发展优化、人口增长优化、水资源优化配置、环境保护优化和综合优化)相结合的15种仿真情景。基于情景设计,本文通过调整水资源、人口增长、经济发展、耕地、取水量、环境保护投资等模型参数进行了情景预测。结果表明,相比基准情景,各优化方案的供水量在平水条件下均能够满足未来中国的社会经济发展需求,但各优化方案的适应条件可能不同,也具有各自的优势和不足,需要进行定量决策,以提出推荐方案。(4)基于优化决策模型对中国水资源承载能力优化方案进行了决策计算。为了更好地区分几种优化方案,本文提出了一种基于多目标决策和合作博弈论的优化决策模型。该方法基于优化决策指标的情景预测结果及阈值分析,根据偏差最小化原理和矩阵的微分性质分析了合作博弈函数的最优化条件,并通过拉格朗日乘数法求解出了合作博弈系数的理论解,实现了合作博弈论在水资源承载能力优化中的应用。综合决策结果表明,经济发展优化方案在短期是有优势的,但综合优化方案更具潜力,适合于中长期政策或规划,而人口增长优化方案、环境保护优化方案、水资源优化配置方案表现一般。(5)提出了中国水资源承载能力优化政策建议。在实施角度,本文提出了人口增长率逐渐降低,经济发展从高速发展向高质量发展、可持续发展转型升级,耕地保护,地表取水量适度提高,环保投资比例不断提高的政策建议。在社会与经济目标角度,提出了未来中国水资源可承载的人口及经济规模。在水资源与生态环境目标角度,预测了未来中国水资源管理目标的实现程度。在投资驱动角度,提出了建议的水务投资规模。研究成果从水资源承载能力层面揭示了水资源与社会、经济、生态环境之间的作用关系,为国家层面的水资源开发与保护、城镇化与城市发展等发展规划制定与政策调整提供科学依据。图65幅,表18个,参考文献170篇更多还原

【Abstract】 With the continuous growth of population,the acceleration of urbanization and the in-depth development of industrialization,China’s demand and pressure on water resources will continue to increase,and the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will become more prominent.Making a reasonable prediction of water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)in the future based on possible scenarios and putting forward optimization policy suggestions can provide reference for regional sustainable water resources management.However,the studies on predicting and optimizing China’s WRCC in the future are very limited.In order to make up for the above shortcomings,this dissertation conducts the research on predicting and optimizing the WRCC based on scenario design from the aspects of internal mechanism,scenario prediction,optimization decision-making,and policy suggestions with the support by combing nature-society dual cycle theory,sustainable development theory,system dynamic theory,multi-objective decision theory,cooperative game theory,and etc.The main research contents and conclusions include:(1)Revealing the internal mechanism of WRCC.This paper analyzes the carrier-load structure of WRCC from the perspective of dynamic elasticity,systematically analyzes the causality diagram of core variables based on system dynamics theory and carrier-load structure,identifies four types of variables(society,economy,water resources and ecological environment)according to causality and data availability.Based on the upstream and downstream relationship of the internal variables of four subsystem,the internal mechanism between the 76 influencing variables of WRCC is revealed through the prediction flow chart and formulas.(2)Prediction of China’s WRCC in the future under the baseline scenario.This paper defines the time and space boundaries of the model,determines the parameters and equations of all variables by combing logistic functions,mathematical regression,and other methods,and then constructs the simulation model of China’s WRCC based on the baseline scenario.The model is verified by historical test and sensitivity analysis.The results show that the water supply of the baseline scenario can’t satisfy the needs of China’s social and economic development and should be optimized by adjusting the influencing variable parameters to improve the water supply-demand ratio.(3)Prediction of China’s WRCC in the future under the scenario design.Considering the changing environment in the future,this paper designs 15 simulation scenarios which are composed of three water resources conditions(i.e.,normal water condition,dry condition,and wet condition)and five optimization schemes(i.e.,economic development optimization,population growth optimization,optimal allocation of water resources,environmental protection optimization,and comprehensive optimization).Based on the scenario design,this paper adjusts the model parameters such as water resources,population growth,economic development,cultivated land,water intake,and environment protection investment to realize scenario prediction.The results show that the water supply of all the optimization scheme can be sufficient for the social and economic development of China in the future compared with baseline scenario.However,the application conditions,and the advantages and disvantages of each optimization scheme are different,which needs quantitative decision-making to obtain the recommended scheme.(4)Decision-making on the optimization schemes of China’s WRCC based on optimization decision model.In order to better distinguish the five optimization schemes,this paper proposes an optimization decision model based on multi-objective decision-making and cooperative game theory.This method uses the minimization principle and the differential property of the matrix to analyze the optimal condition of the cooperative game function based on the scenario prediction results of optimization decision indicators and thresholds analysis,and obtaines the theoretical solution of the cooperative game coefficient by the Lagrange multiplier method,which realizes the application of cooperative game theory in the optimization of WRCC.The decision-making results show that the economic development optimization scheme has advantages in the short term,but the comprehensive optimization scheme stands out and is suitable for mid-long-term policy or planning,while the population growth optimization scheme,the environmental protection optimization scheme,and the optimal allocation scheme of water resources perform generally.(5)Policy suggestions on optimizing WRCC.From the perspective of implementation,this study puts forward the policy suggestions on optimizing WRCC,i.e.,gradual slowing population growth,economic development from high-speed to high-quality and sustainability,cultivated land protection,continuous improvement of surface water intake and environmental protection investment.The population and economic scale that China’s water resources can carry in the future are proposed as social and economic goals.For the goals of water resources and environmental management,this study predicts the realization degree of China’s water resources management goals in the future.In terms of investment,the proposed investment scale of water affairs is presented.This study reveals the relationship between water resources,society,economy and eco-environment from the perspective of WRCC,and also provides a scientific basis for the formulation of development plans and policy at the national level,such as water resources development and protection,urbanization and urban development.更多还原