【作者】 莫敏；

【导师】 霍林；

【作者基本信息】 广西大学 ， 应用经济学， 2022， 博士

【摘要】 伴随国内国际双循环新发展格局的深入推进和中国与开放型世界经济良性互动的不断加强,有必要通过逐步提升人民币汇率的弹性,逐步放宽人民币汇率的波动幅度,把握人民币汇率变动趋势,构建起与国内国际双循环新发展格局相适应的人民币汇率制度,服务于新发展格局下中国经济高质量发展和高水平对外开放的需要。我们认为:应该在现有的有管理的浮动汇率制度的基础上探索构建一种相对灵活、围绕人民币价值中枢波动区间合理、但并非完全浮动的人民币汇率目标区制度。一方面,维持人民币汇率在一定幅度内的合理波动,科学把握人民币汇率的升值和贬值规律;另一方面,强化人民币汇率波动的边界管理,以期为人民币有管理的浮动汇率制度优化和创新提供参考。本文主要围绕以下核心问题进行具体的研究工作,即如何构建起与新发展格局相适应的人民币汇率制度?围绕这一核心问题,本文分别研究以下三个子问题:一是从全球汇率制度选择的国际规律看,人民币汇率制度是否有必要向更加浮动的方向发展?二是当前人民币有管理的浮动汇率制度是否具备更加浮动的条件?实施的条件是否具备?三是如何实现人民币有管理的浮动汇率制度的优化和创新?需要一种什么样的制度选择?基于以上研究问题,本文主要从理论和现实两个维度入手,在厘清人民币汇率弹性、人民币汇率市场化、汇率目标区制度三者关系的基础上,按照国际经验与中国应用、理论与现实的可行性、经验借鉴与制度构建的研究思路,从汇率弹性的视角探索新发展格局下人民币汇率目标区制度构建的可行性。本研究认为:第一,基于人民币汇率目标区制度构建的理论分析,汇率制度选择的经济基础、政治基础以及选择机制理论为人民币汇率制度选择的研究提供理论基础,在此基础上,本文从汇率目标区基础理论、汇率目标区与干预边界以及汇率目标区与干预时机三个维度入手,提出人民币汇率目标区制度构建的理论分析框架,以实现人民币汇率目标区制度可信性与灵活性。从人民币汇率制度选择的理论支撑到人民币汇率目标区制度构建的理论分析框架,均表明人民币汇率目标区制度构建在理论维度是可行的。第二,基于国际视角的人民币汇率目标区制度构建的现实考察,从全球汇率制度选择的演绎趋势和特征考察来看,发达经济体和新兴市场及发展中经济体在汇率制度选择上呈现弹性增强等特征,经济规模等不同因素对其汇率制度选择的影响程度不同。基于汇率制度选择的国际规律推测出人民币汇率制度选择浮动汇率制度的概率最大,人民币有管理的浮动汇率制度的优化和创新是当前以及未来人民币汇率制度改革的方向。第三,基于国内视角的人民币汇率目标区制度构建的现实考察,从人民币汇率制度改革的历史回溯和运行状况看,人民币汇率历经由政府定价到市场决定、由固定到有管理的浮动的过程转变,人民币汇率的弹性发生了由不显著到显著、由缺乏弹性到弹性逐渐增强的特征转变。实证结果表明,人民币汇率弹性自2015年以来得到较大程度的提高,支持了人民币汇率目标区制度作为当前有管理的浮动汇率制度优化和创新的设想。第四,借鉴不同经济体汇率制度改革路径及经验,以澳大利亚、以色列、新加坡为代表的发达经济体与以波兰、智利为代表的新兴市场经济体的汇率制度改革取得了良好成效,不同经济体的汇率制度改革实践经验能够为人民币汇率目标区制度构建提供经验借鉴,即人民币汇率目标区制度的构建应当综合考虑汇率中间价、汇率波动区间与汇率干预时机三个维度,形成适合中国国情及发展需要的汇率目标区制度。本研究建议:第一,关于人民币汇率目标区制度的构建:在人民币汇率中间价方面,建议基于已有的人民币有效汇率指数构建规则,从经济体量、贸易、投资等多维度扩充人民币汇率货币篮子中的币种规模,并基于汇率“痛苦指数”求取人民币汇率中间价的简约估计值,提升人民币汇率参考一篮子货币调节在中间价估算中的能力;在人民币汇率波动区间方面,建议基于外汇市场压力指数即人民币汇率弹性的区间大小对人民币汇率区间进行有效调节,并基于人民币汇率弹性的宏观绩效的考察,即研究人民币汇率弹性对中国经济增长、通货膨胀以及货币政策独立性是否有显著影响,为人民币汇率波动区间的合理性提供较为合理的指标参考。第二,关于人民币汇率目标区的管理:一是完善人民币汇率中间价管理,即人民币汇率货币篮子的计算规则可以从政治、投资等多维度进行考量,中间价计算要平衡收盘价与篮子货币的权重,逆周期因子的引入和退出要针对人民币汇率变动的不同时期;二是完善人民币汇率波动区间管理,一方面,把握人民币汇率升贬值趋势形成对称性的管理规则,综合运用不同类型的人民币汇率管理工具,另一方面,把握人民币汇率波动幅度形成差异性的管理规则,通过适当的外汇干预、外汇避险工具的设计适度把握人民币汇率升值和贬值幅度;三是从完善跨境资本流动管理、加强外汇市场建设以及加强汇率机制沟通等方面提出完善人民币汇率目标区制度的配套措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the deepening of the new development pattern of domestic and international dual cycle and the strengthening of the benign interaction between China’s economy and the openness-oriented world economy,it’s necessary to enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate step by step,to relax the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate gradually,to grasp the trend of RMB exchange rate movement,and build up a RMB exchange rate regime that is compatible with the new development pattern of domestic and international dual cycle.Therefore,such regime can serve the new development pattern of China;This regime can meet the needs of China’s high-quality economic development and high level of openness to the outside world in the new development pattern.As far as we can concern,we should explore a relatively flexible RMB exchange rate target zone regime based on the existing managed floating exchange rate regime,with a reasonable fluctuation range around the pivotal value of the RMB exchange rate,but not fully floating exchange rate.On the one hand,it maintains reasonable fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate within a certain range and scientifically grasps the law of appreciation and depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.On the other hand,it manages the fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate at the boundary,in order to provide reference for the optimization of the current RMB managed floating exchange rate regime.This paper focuses on the following one core question and will conduct some specific researches: how to construct a RMB exchange rate regime that is compatible with the new development pattern? Focusing on that core question,this paper studies the following three sub-questions one by one.Firstly,is it necessary for the RMB exchange rate regime to move towards a more floating direction in terms of the international laws of global exchange rate regime choice?Secondly,whether the current RMB managed floating exchange rate regime has the conditions for more floating or not? Are the conditions for implementation in place? Thirdly,how to optimize and innovate the RMB managed floating exchange rate regime? What kind of institutional choice is needed? Based on the above research questions,this paper mainly starts from two dimensions: from the theory and from the social and economic reality,on the basis of clarifying the relationship among RMB exchange rate flexibility,the marketization of RMB exchange rate and the exchange rate target zone regime,and explores the feasibility of the construction of RMB exchange rate target zone regime under the new development pattern from the perspective of exchange rate flexibility,in accordance to the research ideas of international experience and their practice in Chinese context,the feasibility of theory and the reality,experience learning and regime construction in China.This dissertation holds that:Firstly,based on the theoretical analysis of the construction of RMB exchange rate target zone regime,the theories of economic foundation,political foundation and selection mechanism of exchange rate regime provide a theoretical basis for the study of the RMB exchange rate target zone regime.Based on it,starting from the basic theories,the intervention boundary,and the intervention time of exchange rate target zone,this paper proposes the theoretical foundation framework for the construction of the RMB exchange rate target zone regime,in order to realize the credibility and flexibility of the RMB exchange rate target zone regime.From the supporting theories of the choice of RMB exchange rate regime to the theoretical analysis framework of the construction of RMB exchange rate target zone regime,it is shown that the construction of RMB exchange rate target zone regime is feasible in the theoretical dimension.Secondly,based on an international perspective on the reality of the construction of the RMB exchange rate target zone regime,from the perspective of the deductive trend and characteristics of the global exchange rate regime choice,the developed economies,the emerging market and the developing economies have shown more flexibility in the choice of exchange rate regime,and different factors such as the size of the economy have different impacts on the exchange rate regime choice of developed economies,emerging markets and developing economies accordingly.Based on the international pattern of exchange rate regime choice,it is presumed that the probability of choosing a floating exchange rate regime for the RMB is the highest,and the optimization and innovation of the RMB managed floating exchange rate regime is the direction of the current and future reform of the RMB exchange rate regime.Thirdly,based on the domestic perspective of the construction of the RMB exchange rate target zone regime,from the historical review and operation of the RMB exchange rate regime,it can be seen that the RMB exchange rate has undergone a transformation from government pricing to market determination and from fixed to managed floating,the RMB exchange rate flexibility has changed from insignificant to significant,and from inflexibility to gradually increasing flexibility.The empirical results shows that the RMB exchange rate flexibility has been greatly improved since 2015,which supports the idea of the RMB exchange rate target zone regime as an optimization and innovation of the current managed floating exchange rate regime.Fourthly,drawing lessons of exchange rate regime reform paths and experience of different economies,the exchange rate regime reforms of developed economies represented by Australia,Israel and Singapore,and emerging market economies represented by Poland and Chile have achieved good results,the practical experience of exchange rate regime reforms of different economies can provide the experience and lessons for the construction of the RMB exchange rate target zone regime.In other words,the construction of the RMB exchange rate target zone regime should comprehensively consider three dimensions,namely the central parity,the fluctuation range and the intervention time of RMB exchange rate,so as to form an exchange rate target zone regime which is suitable for China’s national conditions and development needs.This study recommends that:Firstly,on the construction of RMB exchange rate target zone regime: In terms of the central parity of RMB exchange rate,it’s proposed to expand the size of the currency basket of the RMB exchange rate based on the existing rules for constructing the RMB effective exchange rate index,expand the size of the currency basket of the RMB exchange rate in terms of economic volume,trade,investment and other dimensions,and obtain a simple estimate of the central parity of the RMB exchange rate based on the exchange rate "pain index",so as to enhance the ability of the RMB exchange rate to adjust the reference basket of currencies in the mid-price estimation.In terms of the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate,it’s proposed to effectively adjust the fluctuation range based on the foreign exchange market pressure index.At the same time,based on the investigation of the macro performance of RMB exchange rate flexibility,that is,to study whether RMB exchange rate flexibility has a significant impact on China’s economic growth,inflation and monetary policy independence,so as to provide a more reasonable indicator reference for the rationality of the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate.Secondly,on the management of the RMB exchange rate the target zone regime: First,improve the management of the central parity of RMB exchange rate,that is,the rules of the currency basket of the RMB exchange rate can be considered from political,investment and other multi-dimensions,the calculation of the central parity should balance the weight of the closing price and the basket currencies,and the introduction and withdrawal of counter-cyclical factors should target different periods of RMB exchange rate movements.Second,improve the management of the RMB exchange rate fluctuation range.On the one hand,grasp the trend of RMB exchange rate appreciation and depreciation to form symmetrical management rules,and make comprehensive use different types of RMB exchange rate management tools.On the other hand,grasp the management rules of the RMB exchange rate fluctuation range to form a differential management rule,and appropriately grasp the RMB exchange rate appreciation and depreciation range through appropriate foreign exchange intervention and the design of foreign exchange hedging tools.Third,it proposes complementary measures to improve the RMB exchange rate target zone regime in terms of improving the management of cross-border capital flows,strengthening the construction of foreign exchange market and enhancing the communication of exchange rate mechanism.更多还原