【作者】 李萌；

【导师】 吴昊；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 区域经济学， 2022， 博士

【摘要】 就业是最大的民生,也是经济发展最基本的支撑。扩大就业需要以经济增长为前提,没有一定的经济增速是难以解决就业不足问题的。近年来,中国经济增速明显回落,就业问题随之日益突出。为此,在新的时代背景下如何协调经济增长与就业的关系,实现经济增长与就业扩大良性互动,仍是一项具有重要意义的理论与政策课题。改革开放以来,中国经济保持了40年的持续高速增长,实际GDP由1978年的3678.7亿元增长至2021年的159529.8亿元,年均增长率达9.2%,与此同时,就业人口在44年间增长了1.9倍,年均增长率达1.4%,从整体来看我国呈现出持续的经济增长与就业增长的态势。作为世界上人口和劳动力最多的国家,面对复杂多变的就业形势和就业压力,我国实现了比较充分的就业,这一方面得益于我国不断完善与宏观经济政策相协同、与现代经济体系建设相适应的就业政策体系,另一方面也得益于我国持续高速的经济增长对就业的拉动作用。但我国经济增长与就业并不是一直维持“高增长,高就业”态势,在不同时期与不同区域内,经济增长与就业的关系存在非一致性。在经济增速放缓与区域差距不断扩大的背景下,我国现阶段的就业形势面临着诸多压力,主要来源于结构性就业问题、供给侧改革引发大量转岗就业、科技进步对就业的替代效应以及劳动力成本上升抑制用工需求等问题。因此要求我们必须深入分析就业领域面临的挑战和风险,并且从经济增长与就业的关系入手,探究经济发展与扩大就业良性互动路径,为“稳增长”和“促就业”提供切实有效的政策建议。本文从马克思主义经济学与西方经济学中梳理了关于经济增长与就业关系的理论,基于经济增长对劳动力需求与供给的影响总结了经济增长对就业的影响机制,为后文进一步分析经济增长与就业非一致性的成因提供了理论依据。基于省级面板和市级面板数据,运用比较分析、实证分析等研究方法,分别从三个视角对经济增长与就业的关系展开研究,分别是:在非线性框架下,经济增长与就业关系的总体性分析;不同经济增长要素驱动模式下,经济增长与就业关系的阶段性差异;在考虑空间效应的基础上,经济增长与就业关系的区域差异。最后建立就业弹性影响因素评价模型进一步探究造成经济增长与就业关系存在时空差异的原因,并提出政策建议。本文的核心内容包含以下四个部分。第一,从现状分析层面,揭示了中国经济增长与就业的时空演变特征。研究发现:从经济增长与就业的演变特征来看,经济总量与就业人口自改革开放以来均大幅度增加,但二者增长速度不一致,并表现出了阶段性特征。经济增长结构与就业结构的转变趋势相一致,但就业结构调整滞后于产业结构调整。经济增长对整体就业的带动作用减弱,表现为整体就业弹性逐年下降,并且经济增长每1%所带动的全部就业人数逐渐减少。但经济增长对非农就业的带动作用并没有明显下降,经济每增长1%所带动的非农就业人数是不断增加的;从区域经济增长与就业关系的演变特征来看,四大区域之间的经济差距逐渐扩大,而就业规模的差距逐渐缩小。省份之间的经济差距与就业规模差距具有显著的区域性特征。东北地区无论从经济总量还是就业水平上来看与其他三个区域的差距逐渐拉大。东部、中部和西部地区的经济增长有利于促进本地区就业规模的扩大,就业弹性为正但存在区域差异性,东北地区的就业弹性最小且逐年下降。进一步通过经济增速与就业率、人均国内生产总值与就业率、人均国内生产总值与就业增长率三种耦合方式考察了区域经济增长与就业的空间演化特征,并发现不同区域之间三种耦合类型存在着显著的差异性,并且近十年随着经济增速的逐渐放缓,经济增长与就业之间的空间非一致性增强。第二,通过对中国经济增长与就业关系进行总体性实证分析得出,经济增长能够显著促进就业水平的提升,但二者之间存在非线性关系,即经济增长对就业的影响存在明显的门限效应特征,符合边际效应递减规律。基于省级面板数据,运用门限模型回归分析方法,检验了经济增长与就业非一致性关系,研究发现:当经济增速低于0.083时,经济增长对就业具有显著地正向效应;当经济增速高于0.083时,经济增长对就业依然具有正向效应但是作用大小明显减弱。我国经济增长能够带动就业水平的提高,但是由于区域异质性下的经济增长作用存在差异、并且伴随着资本有机构成的提高和经济要素的边际效应递减,当经济增速位于高区制时对就业水平的促进作用较弱。并且进一步从时间维度和地区维度的划分得出,我国绝大部分地区已经进入边际效益递减的区间,东部地区和中部地区经济增速大于门限值的样本数较多,而西部地区和东北部地区经济增速大于门限值的样本数较少。第三,通过对中国经济增长与就业关系的阶段性差异进行实证分析得出,不同经济增长要素驱动模式下经济增长与就业均为显著的正相关关系,但经济增长的就业效应存在阶段性差异。基于经济增长要素驱动模式对1978年至2019年的省级面板数据进行了时段划分,首先运用静态面板模型分析方法对不同时段内经济增长对就业带动作用的差异性进行了实证分析,研究发现:20世纪80年代经济增长对就业的拉动作用较大,但90年代后这种拉动作用逐步减小,并维持在较低的水平,2010年后虽然经济增速放缓但是就业拉动作用有所回升。经济增长对非农就业的带动作用显著大于对整体就业的带动作用。通过引入经济增长与时间趋势的交互项发现经济增长对就业的带动作用随着时间的增加而减弱。其次运用系统GMM模型回归分析方法建立就业弹性影响因素的综合评价模型,探究造成经济增长与就业关系存在阶段性差异的原因,研究发现:作为典型的城乡二元经济,中国经济的持续高速增长是充分发挥劳动力资源丰富的要素比较优势的过程,随着经济增长的要素驱动模式从早期劳动要素投入驱动为主阶段转向资本要素与自主创新共同驱动为主阶段,我国的经济增长方式、经济结构以及制度和政策等方面经历了剧烈的调整和改革,这些因素在不同阶段内对就业的作用差异是造成我国经济增长与就业关系存在阶段性差异的原因。第四,通过对中国经济增长与就业关系的区域差异进行实证分析得出,不同区域内经济增长与就业均存在显著的正相关关系,但经济增长对就业产生了负向的溢出效应并且存在区域异质性,经济增长的就业效应存在区域差异。基于市级面板数据,首先在考虑经济增长空间效应的基础上,建立经济距离空间权重矩阵,运用空间计量分析方法对不同区域内经济增长对就业带动作用的差异性进行了实证分析,研究发现:从全国层面来看经济增长对就业为显著的正向影响,且存在对就业的正向溢出效应,如不考虑空间效应因素将会高估经济增长对就业的影响。从区域层面来看经济增长对就业的带动作用存在显著的区域差异,东部城市经济增长对就业的带动作用最大,东北地区的经济增长对就业的带动作用相对较小,中部城市和西部城市经济增长对就业的带动作用相当。中国经济增长对就业的溢出效应也存在区域异质性,东部地区的直接效应与总效应最大,中部、西部和东北地区的经济增长对就业存在负向的溢出效应。其次运用系统GMM模型回归分析方法建立就业弹性影响因素的综合评价模型,探究造成经济增长与就业关系存在区域差异的原因,研究发现:区域间工业化程度、技术进步水平、民营经济规模、产业结构升级、人力资本水平与城市化率的差异是造成四大区域经济增长就业吸纳能力不同的主要原因,并且各因素对就业弹性影响效应的区域异质性是造成经济增长与就业关系存在区域差异的原因。综上,本文从多角度、深层次地论证了中国经济增长与就业关系的时空差异,并且分析了造成时空差异的成因。最后根据本文的研究结论,以及经济增长与就业的现实情况,提出相应的政策建议。以期能够为我国“稳增长”“促就业”的目标提供科学的理论支撑和经验参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Employment is the biggest livelihood,and the most basic support for economic development.Without a certain rate of economic growth,it is difficult to solve the problem of underemployment.In recent years,China’s economic growth rate has fallen significantly,and the employment problem has become increasingly prominent.Therefore,it is still an important theoretical and policy issue to coordinate the relationship between economic growth and employment in the new era,and to realize the positive interaction between economic growth and employment expansion.Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has maintained continuous high growth for 40 years,with real GDP growing from 367.87 billion yuan in 1978 to159.529.8 billion yuan in 2021,with an average annual growth rate of 9.2%,while the employed population has increased 1.9 times in 44 years,with an average annual growth rate of 1.4%,and on the whole,China shows a continuous economic growth and employment As a whole,China has shown sustained economic growth and employment growth.As the country with the largest population and labor force in the world,China has achieved relatively full employment in the face of the complex and changing employment situation and employment pressure,thanks to the continuous improvement of China’s employment policy system that is synergistic with macroeconomic policies and compatible with the construction of modern economic system on the one hand,and the pulling effect of China’s sustained and rapid economic growth on employment on the other.However,China’s economic growth and employment have not always maintained a "high growth,high employment" trend,and the relationship between economic growth and employment has been inconsistent in different periods and regions.Against the background of slowing economic growth and widening regional disparity,China’s employment situation is facing many pressures at this stage,mainly from structural employment problems,supply-side reform triggering a large number of job transfers,the substitution effect of technological progress on employment,and rising labor costs suppressing labor demand.Therefore,we need to analyze the challenges and risks in the field of employment,and explore the path of positive interaction between economic development and employment expansion from the perspective of the relationship between economic growth and employment,so as to provide effective policy suggestions for "stabilizing growth" and "promoting employment".This paper will also explore the interaction between economic development and employment expansion from the perspective of the relationship between economic growth and employment,and provide practical and effective policy recommendations for "stabilizing growth" and "promoting employment.This paper compares the theories on the relationship between economic growth and employment from Marxist economics and Western economics,and summarizes the mechanism of economic growth on employment based on the impact of economic growth on labor demand and supply,which provides a theoretical basis for further analysis of the causes of non-conformity between economic growth and employment.Based on provincial panel and municipal panel data,the relationship between economic growth and employment is studied from three perspectives using comparative analysis and empirical analysis,namely: the generality analysis of the relationship between economic growth and employment under a nonlinear framework;the stage differences of the relationship between economic growth and employment under different factordriven models of economic growth;and the regional differences of the relationship between economic growth and employment on the basis of considering spatial effects.Regional differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment based on spatial effects.Finally,an evaluation model of employment elasticity factors is established to further investigate the causes of the spatial and temporal differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment,and to propose policy recommendations.The core contents and conclusions of this paper include the following four parts.First,the spatio-temporal evolution of economic growth and employment in China is revealed from the current situation analysis.It is found that,in terms of the evolutionary characteristics of economic growth and employment,both the total economic volume and the employed population have increased substantially since the reform and opening up,but the growth rates of both are inconsistent and show phasespecific characteristics.The trend of transformation of economic growth structure and employment structure is consistent,but employment restructuring lags behind industrial restructuring.The driving effect of economic growth on overall employment has weakened,which is manifested by the year-on-year decline in overall employment elasticity and the gradual decrease in the number of all employment driven by each 1%of economic growth.However,the driving effect of economic growth on non-farm employment does not decline significantly,and the number of non-farm employment driven by each 1% economic growth is increasing;from the evolution characteristics of the relationship between regional economic growth and employment,the economic gap between the four regions gradually expands,while the gap of employment scale gradually decreases.The economic gap and employment scale gap between provinces have significant regional characteristics.The gap between the Northeast and the other three regions in terms of both economic aggregates and employment levels has gradually widened.The economic growth in the eastern,central and western regions is conducive to promoting the expansion of employment scale in the region,and the employment elasticity is positive but there is regional variability,while the employment elasticity in the northeastern region is the smallest and decreasing year by year.The spatial evolution characteristics of regional economic growth and employment are further examined through three coupling types: economic growth and employment rate,GDP per capita and employment rate,and GDP per capita and employment growth rate,and it is found that there are significant differences in the three coupling types among different regions,and the spatial non-consistency between economic growth and employment increases with the gradual slowdown of economic growth rate in the last decade.Second,the overall empirical analysis of the relationship between economic growth and employment in China concludes that economic growth can significantly promote the employment level,but there is a non-linear relationship between the two,i.e.,there is an obvious threshold effect characteristic of the impact of economic growth on employment,which is consistent with the law of diminishing marginal effect.Based on provincial panel data,the Based on the provincial panel data,the non-linear relationship between economic growth and employment is examined by using the threshold model regression analysis method,and it is found that: when the economic growth rate is lower than 0.083,economic growth has a significant positive effect on employment;when the economic growth rate is higher than 0.083,economic growth still has a positive effect on employment but the effect size is significantly weaker.However,due to the differences in the effects of economic growth under regional heterogeneity,the increase in organic composition of capital and the diminishing marginal effects of economic factors,the promotion of employment is weaker when the economic growth rate is in the high range.Further,the time and regional dimensions show that most of the regions in China have entered the zone of diminishing marginal effects,with more samples from the eastern and central regions and fewer samples from the western and northeastern regions having economic growth rates greater than the threshold.Third,an empirical analysis of the stage differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment in China shows that economic growth and employment are significantly positively correlated under different factor-driven models of economic growth,but there are stage differences in the employment effects of economic growth.Based on the factor-driven model of economic growth,the provincial panel data from 1978 to 2019 were divided into time periods,and the differences in the employment-driving effect of economic growth in different time periods were firstly analyzed empirically using the static panel model analysis method,and it was found that: the pulling effect of economic growth on employment was larger in the 1980 s,but this pulling effect gradually decreased after the 1990 s and remained After 2010,although the economic growth rate slowed down,the employment-boosting effect rebounded.The economic growth has a significantly larger effect on nonfarm employment than on overall employment.By introducing the interaction term between economic growth and time trend,it is found that the driving effect of economic growth on employment decreases with the increase of time.Secondly,a comprehensive evaluation model of the factors influencing employment elasticity is established using the systematic GMM model regression analysis method to explore the causes of the stage differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment,and it is found that: since the reform and opening up,China’s industrialization process has been accelerated,accompanied by the transformation of economic growth,the drastic adjustment of economic structure,and the reform of institutions and policies,and these factors within different stages on employment The differences in the effects of these factors on employment within different stages are the reasons for the non-conformity between economic growth and employment in China.Fourth,an empirical analysis of regional differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment in China shows that there is a significant positive relationship between economic growth and employment in different regions,but economic growth has a negative spillover effect on employment and there is regional heterogeneity,and there are regional differences in the employment effects of economic growth.Based on the municipal panel data,the spatial weight matrix of economic distance is established on the basis of the spatial effect of economic growth,and the spatial econometric analysis is applied to analyze the differences of economic growth on employment in different regions empirically.If the spatial effect is not considered,the impact of economic growth on employment will be overestimated.At the regional level,there are significant regional differences in the effect of economic growth on employment,with the greatest effect of economic growth on employment in the eastern cities,a relatively small effect of economic growth on employment in the northeast,and a comparable effect of economic growth on employment in the central and western cities.There is also regional heterogeneity in the spillover effects of economic growth on employment in China,with the largest direct and total effects in the eastern region and negative spillover effects on employment in the central,western and northeastern regions.Secondly,a comprehensive evaluation model of employment elasticity influencing factors is established by using systematic GMM model regression analysis to explore the causes of regional differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment,and it is found that: the differences in the degree of regional industrialization,the level of technological progress,the scale of private economy,the upgrading of industrial structure,the level of human capital and the urbanization rate are the main reasons for the different employment absorption capacity of economic growth in the four major regions In addition,the regional heterogeneity of the effects of each factor on employment elasticity is the reason for the regional differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment.In summary,this paper argues the spatial and temporal differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment in China from multiple perspectives and at a deeper level,and analyzes the causes of the spatial and temporal differences.Finally,based on the findings of this paper and the reality of economic growth and employment,corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.In order to provide scientific theoretical support and empirical reference for the goal of "stabilizing growth" and "promoting employment" in China.更多还原