【作者】 曾丹；

【导师】 曹华军；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 机械工程， 2021， 博士

【摘要】 发展电动汽车是我国从汽车大国迈向汽车强国的必由之路,是应对气候变化、推动绿色发展的重要战略举措。电动汽车生命周期评价对于分析电动汽车生命周期环境影响减缓潜力、电动汽车低碳技术创新以及政策制定等具有重要意义,已成为当前的学术研究热点。但现有研究以静态生命周期评价为主,较少考虑电动汽车生命周期资源能源消耗和环境排放的动态特性,如汽车轻量化技术、电池技术和能源清洁化等随时间变化会改变电动汽车相对于传统燃油汽车的环境效益;同时,电动汽车的环境排放也会随着区域电网和区域气候条件等空间因素不同而动态变化。另一方面,规模化发展电动汽车的环境效益不仅与单一电动汽车动态生命周期环境效益有关,还受到车群(vehicle fleet)结构时变影响。鉴于此,在国家重点研发计划项目和国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目的资助下,本论文开展基于时空动变的电动汽车及车群的动态生命周期评价(Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment,DLCA)研究。主要研究内容如下:首先,在分析汽车(包括电动汽车和燃油汽车)生命周期活动及其资源能源消耗和排放的时空分布特性基础上,阐明汽车生命周期环境影响随时空变化的动态特性,基于此,提出考虑时空动态变化的汽车DLCA框架,进而构建汽车DLCA模型,为后续章节中纯电动汽车、插电式混合动力汽车与传统燃油汽车的动态环境影响评价提供理论支持。其次,以比亚迪秦系列的三种类型汽车为研究对象,开展我国纯电动汽车、插电式混合动力汽车与传统燃油汽车的动态生命周期环境影响评价,分别界定电动汽车与传统燃油汽车DLCA评价目标、系统边界及时空范围等,并对汽车全生命周期各阶段开展详细的清单分析,进而探讨不同时空因素对电动汽车生命周期环境效益的影响,为低碳环保汽车开发及绿色消费提供支持。然后,分析乘用车群生命周期环境影响的时变特性,建立乘用车群DLCA总体框架,明确乘用车群DLCA研究功能单位、系统边界等,进而构建乘用车群动态生命周期环境影响计算模型,形成考虑乘用车群全生命周期且覆盖多种环境影响的乘用车群动态生命周期环境影响评价方法。最后,基于单因素和多因素相结合的情景分析法预测我国乘用车群在不同控制策略情境下的环境影响减缓潜力,包括实施规模化发展电动汽车、限制乘用车保有量增速与使用强度、提前淘汰废旧汽车、提升汽车技术水平等,提出实现我国乘用车群低碳发展目标的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The development of electric vehicles is an inevitable way for China to shift from a large automobile country to a strong automobile country,and is also an important strategic measure to cope with climate change and promote green development.Life cycle assessment of electric vehicles is of great significance to the analysis of life cycle environmental impact mitigation potential of electric vehicles,the technological innovation and the policy making of low-carbon electric vehicles,which has become a hotspot of current academic research.However,the existing studies mainly focus on the static life cycle assessment of electric vehicles and seldom consider the dynamic characteristics of life cycle resource and energy consumption and environmental emissions of electric vehicles.For example,the variations of vehicle lightweight technology,battery technology and energy cleanliness with time will change the environmental benefits of electric vehicles compared with the traditional fuel vehicles.At the same time,the environmental emissions of electric vehicles will also change dynamically with spatial factors such as regional climate conditions and power grids.On the other hand,the environmental benefits of large-scale development of electric vehicles are not only related to that of a single electric vehicle,but also affected by the time-varying composition of vehicle fleet.In view of this,supported by the National Key Research and Development Program and the International(Regional)Cooperation and Exchange Program of The National Natural Science Foundation of China,the research on the dynamic life cycle assessment(DLCA)of electric vehicles and vehicle fleets considering the temporal and spatial variations is carried out in this paper.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly,based on the analysis of temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the life cycle activities of vehicles(including electric vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles)with their resource and energy consumption and emissions,the dynamic characteristics of the life cycle environmental impact of vehicles over time are clarified.Based on this,a DLCA framework of vehicles considering the temporal and spatial variations are proposed.And then,a specific DLCA model is developed.It provides support for the dynamic environmental impact assessment of pure electric vehicles,plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and conventional internal combustion vehicles in the following chapter.Secondly,taking three types of BYD vehicles as illustrations,dynamic life cycle environmental impact assessment of electric vehicles and conventional internal combustion vehicles in China is carried out.The LCA goals,system boundary and temporal and spatial scopes of the DLCA of the three types of vehicles are defined respectively,along with the in-depth analysis of the life cycle inventories of the three vehicles.And then,the influence of the different temporal and spatial factors on the life cycle environmental benefits of electric vehicles is explored.This part can provide the support for the low carbon vehicle development and green consumption.Then,after analyzing the time-varying characteristics of the life cycle environmental impact of passenger vehicle fleet,an overall DLCA framework of passenger vehicle fleet is established and the functional unit and the system boundary,etc.of the DLCA are clarified.And then the calculation models of the dynamic life cycle environmental impact of passenger vehicle fleet are developed.A dynamic life cycle environmental impact assessment method of passenger vehicle fleet that considers the whole life cycles of the passenger vehicle fleet and covered a variety of environmental impacts is developed.Finally,based on the single-and multiple-factor scenario analysis,the environmental impact mitigation potential of China’s passenger vehicle fleet under the scenarios of various control strategies,including the large-scale deployment of electric vehicles,the restrictions of the growth of passenger vehicle ownership and the vehicle use intensity,the elimination of the old vehicles in advance,and the improvement of vehicle technologies,is predicted and analyzed.And then,the policy suggestions for the achievement of low carbon development goals of China’s passenger vehicle fleet are provided.更多还原