【作者】 刘海波；

【导师】 周敏；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2021， 博士

【摘要】 伴随着城市的快速发展和人民生活水平的提高,我国的建筑能耗比重将逐步加大。近年来,我国一直采取行政手段推进建筑节能减排,并取得了一定的成效,但行政手段往往注重短期效益,长期可持续性不强,只能起到治标不治本的效果。市场化调节手段都是节能减排政策方案中更为有效的选择,在碳市场交易体系建设的背景下,以产权理论和科斯定理为基础建立起的“建筑碳排放权交易”体系是应对气候变化、实现低碳建筑发展的必然选择。因此,本论文以建筑碳排放权交易体系建设为出发点,探讨建筑碳排放权交易的减排效应及其作用机理,对当前的碳交易对建筑业的影响机理进行实证研究,并给出对策和建议。首先,本文以产权理论、外部性理论及科斯定理为基础,提炼出了相关碳排放权交易理论。其次,在对文献进行系统梳理的基础上,以实地调研、专家访谈、问卷调查等方式获取翔实可靠的研究数据,并利用扎根理论对影响我国建筑碳排放权交易减排效应的关键影响因素进行筛选和识别。再次,运用结构方程模型就市场成熟度、政府干预、市场机制、参与主体对建筑碳排放权交易减排效应的影响机制进行了分析。最后,在剖析碳排放权交易与碳税对建筑碳减排行为作用机理的基础上,运用动态CGE模型模拟仿真了碳交易政策对GDP、碳排放、社会福利等因素的影响。主要贡献在于:(1)在建筑碳排放权交易减排效应的影响机制上,参与主体发挥着非常关键的作用,市场成熟度和政府干预在影响建筑碳排放权交易减排效应上起一定的影响作用,市场机制对建筑碳排放权交易减排效应具有一定的影响,但是影响不显著。其次,运用SPSS统计学软件对建筑碳排放权交易减排效应影响机制进行了多元回归分析,研究得出参与主体在建筑碳排放权交易减排效应的影响机制上起着非常重要的作用。两种统计方法结果一致,再次证实了市场成熟度、市场机制、政府干预,以及参与主体对建筑碳排放权交易减排效应的影响。(2)碳排放权交易、碳税影响企业建筑节能减排行为、技术创新激励、碳排放总量控制和实施成本,但作用效果不同。(1)企业采用的碳减排技术特征决定着企业的实际碳排放量,不考虑其他情形下,企业碳减排技术水平越高,则企业碳排放量越低。此外,在考虑碳税的情况下,征收企业碳税税率的高低会影响企业实际碳排放量。税率越高,企业实际碳排放量越低,税率与企业实际碳排放量呈反向关系;在考虑碳排放权交易的情况下,企业碳排放权的价格水平会影响到企业实际碳排放量。价格越高,企业实际碳排放量越低,价格与企业实际碳排放量呈反向关系。(2)企业是否完全遵守环境政策取决于政府的监管力度。监管力度越强,则企业很少出现谎报碳排放量的现象,反之相反。(3)比较碳税和碳排放权交易这两种环境政策工具,在同等条件下,政府可以通过提高环境监管力度来实现企业碳减排技术更新的激励效应。从两种环境政策工具对企业碳减排技术更新政策的影响来看,如果政府能够有效控制碳排放许可证数量,碳排放交易政策的影响相当于碳税。另一方面,如果政府不能有效控制碳排放许可证数量,碳排放交易的政策影响小于碳税。(4)碳税和碳排放权交易对碳排放总量控制的作用不同,这取决于企业技术水平的提高。在企业技术改进的情况下,碳税的控制效果好于碳排放权交易,在企业不存在技术水平改进的情况下,碳税的控制效果相同于碳排放权交易。(5)比较碳税和碳排放权交易的实施成本,如果初始环境政策目标设定在碳排放总量相同的情况下,如果企业能够实现技术进步,碳排放交易的实施成本低于碳税。(3)从整个建筑业碳市场交易目前发展的情况进行分析,利用动态CGE模型展开研究,针对以下九种不同的情景采取了对应的模拟仿真,从这个角度进行分析,研究了交易政策在GDP发展、能源结构以及碳排放过程中造成的影响。主要的研究结论包括:(1)随着配额供给量和免费配额分配率的减少,其对建筑业GDP的负向抑制作用会逐渐增加。主要原因为居民储蓄、企业储蓄、政府储蓄以及居民消费和政府消费的减少。(2)建筑业碳交易政策的实施在一定程度上抑制了碳排放的增长。主要原因在于企业一方面在生产过程中逐渐开始调整能源结构,高排放的燃煤类能源逐渐被可再生能源或其他能源替代,从而产生了能源的替代效应;另一方面,新的技术工艺被开发,高效能模板技术得到了长足的发展。(3)交易政策在一定程度上可以优化建筑业能源结构,但考虑到中国处于城镇化进程发展中期,且低于全球水平,同时中国建筑业水泥消耗比重的居高不下以及建筑业制造方式转型周期的冗长,导致以燃煤类能源为主,燃气类能源为辅的能源结构将长时间存在。(4)碳成本的增加会对企业的发展造成更大的生存压力,这种情况在实际发展的过程中必然会造成产品价格的提升,降低居民购买力。短期内,征收碳税将导致建筑业就业率、工资水平和居民收入下降,增加资本要素,同时缩小劳动要素之间存在的分配差异问题。但从长期来看,只要设定合理的碳税政策,循序渐进,会实现环保和就业的“双重红利”。论文从建筑碳减排的角度为国家有效实施碳排放权交易提供了经验证据,丰富了碳排放权交易在建筑节能减排领域的相关文献。研究表明,建筑碳排放权交易的实施可以有效降低建筑碳排放,但减排效应受诸多因素影响。总体来说,我国应该切实完善政策、市场、法律等基础环境的建设,充分发挥碳排放权交易在建筑节能减排领域的主导作用。论文共有图35幅,表50张,参考文献190篇。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of cities and the improvement of people’s living standards,the proportion of building energy consumption in China will gradually increase.In recent years,China has been adopting administrative measures to promote building energy conservation and emission reduction,and has achieved certain results,but administrative measures often focus on short-term benefits,and long-term sustainability is not strong,which can only achieve the effect of treating the symptoms and not the root cause.Market-oriented adjustment methods are more effective choices in energy saving and emission reduction policies.In the context of the construction of the carbon market trading system,the “building carbon emission trading” system established on the basis of the property rights theory and the Coase theorem is a response to climate change.It is an inevitable choice to change and realize the development of low-carbon buildings.Therefore,this thesis takes the construction of the construction carbon emission trading system as the starting point,discusses the emission reduction effect and the mechanism of the construction carbon emission trading,and conducts an empirical study on the impact of the current carbon trading on the construction industry,and finally gives the countermeasures and suggests.For this reason,this article firstly extracts relevant carbon emission trading theories based on property rights theory,externality theory and Coase’s theorem.Secondly,on the basis of systematically combing the literature,obtaining detailed and reliable research data by means of field research,expert interviews,questionnaire surveys,etc.,and using grounded theory to screen and identify the key influencing factors that affect the emission reduction effects of China’s building carbon emissions trading.Thirdly,the structural equation model is used to analyze the influence mechanism of market maturity,government intervention,market mechanism,and participants on the emission reduction effect of building carbon emission rights trading.Finally,based on the analysis of the mechanism of carbon emission rights trading and carbon tax on building carbon emission reduction behavior,the dynamic CGE model is used to simulate the impact of carbon trading policies on GDP,carbon emissions,social welfare and other factors.The main contributions are as follows:(1)Participants play a very critical role in the impact mechanism of the emission reduction effect of building carbon emission rights trading.Market maturity and government intervention play a certain role in influencing the emission reduction effect of building carbon emission rights trading.The market mechanism has a certain impact on the emission reduction effect of building carbon emission rights trading,but the impact is not significant.Secondly,using SPSS statistical software to conduct a multiple regression analysis on the impact mechanism of the emission reduction effect of building carbon emission rights trading,the research shows that the participants play a very important role on the effect mechanism of the emission reduction effect of building carbon emission rights trading.The results of the two statistical methods are consistent,which once again confirms the influence of market maturity,market mechanism,government intervention,and participants on the emission reduction effect of building carbon emission rights trading.(2)Carbon emission rights trading and carbon taxes affect corporate building energy conservation and emission reduction behaviors,technological innovation incentives,total carbon emission control and implementation costs,but their effects are different.(1)The characteristics of the carbon emission reduction technology adopted by an enterprise determine the actual carbon emissions of the company.Regardless of other circumstances,the higher the level of the company’s carbon emission reduction technology,the lower the company’s carbon emissions.In addition,considering the carbon tax,the level of the corporate carbon tax rate will affect the actual carbon emissions of the company.The higher the tax rate,the lower the company’s actual carbon emissions,and the tax rate has an inverse relationship with the company’s actual carbon emissions.In the case of carbon emissions trading,the price level of the company’s carbon emissions rights will affect the company’s actual carbon emissions.The higher the price,the lower the company’s actual carbon emissions,and the price has an inverse relationship with the company’s actual carbon emissions.(2)Whether a company fully complies with environmental policies depends on the government’s supervision.The stronger the supervision,the less companies will misreport their carbon emissions,and vice versa.(3)Comparing the two environmental policy tools,carbon tax and carbon emission rights trading,under the same conditions,the government can increase the intensity of environmental supervision to achieve the incentive effect of corporate carbon emission reduction technology updates.From the perspective of the impact of the two environmental policy tools on the corporate carbon emission reduction technology update policy.If the government can effectively control the number of carbon emission permits,the effect of the carbon emission trading policy is equivalent to a carbon tax.On the other hand,if the government cannot effectively control the number of carbon emission permits,the policy impact of carbon emissions trading is less than that of carbon taxes.(4)Carbon tax and carbon emission rights trading have different effects on total carbon emission control,which depends on the improvement of enterprise technology level.In the case of enterprise technological improvement,the control effect of carbon tax is better than that of carbon emission rights trading.In the case that the enterprise does not have technological improvement,the control effect of carbon tax is the same as that of carbon emission rights trading.(5)Compare the implementation costs of carbon tax and carbon emissions trading.If the initial environmental policy goal is set at the same total carbon emissions,if the company can achieve technological progress,the implementation cost of carbon emissions trading is lower than the carbon tax.(3)Analyze the current development of carbon market trading in the entire construction industry,use the dynamic CGE model to carry out research,and adopt corresponding simulation simulations for the following nine different scenarios.From this perspective,analyze the impact of trading policies on GDP.The impact of development,energy structure,and carbon emissions.The main research conclusions include:(1)With the reduction of quota supply and free quota allocation rate,its negative inhibitory effect on the GDP of the construction industry will gradually increase.The main reason is the decrease in household savings,corporate savings,government savings,and household consumption and government consumption.(2)The implementation of carbon trading policies in the construction industry has restrained the growth of carbon emissions to a certain extent.The main reason is that on the one hand,companies have gradually begun to adjust the energy structure during the production process,and high-emission coal-burning energy has been gradually replaced by renewable energy or other energy sources,which has produced an energy substitution effect;on the other hand,new technological processes have been Development,high-efficiency template technology has been developed by leaps and bounds.(3)Trading policies can optimize the energy structure of the construction industry to a certain extent,but considering that China is in the middle of the urbanization process and is lower than the global level,at the same time,the proportion of cement consumption in China’s construction industry remains high and the construction industry’s manufacturing method transition cycle Lengthy,resulting in an energy structure dominated by coal-fired energy and supplemented by gas-based energy will exist for a long time.(4)The increase in carbon cost will put more pressure on the survival of the enterprise.This situation will inevitably lead to an increase in product prices in the actual development process and reduce the purchasing power of residents.In the short term,the levy of a carbon tax will lead to a decline in employment rates,wage levels and residents’ incomes in the construction industry,increase capital factors,and at the same time reduce the distribution differences between labor factors.However,in the long run,as long as a reasonable carbon tax policy is set,and gradual and orderly progress,the "double dividend" of environmental protection and employment will be realized.The thesis provides empirical evidence for the country’s effective implementation of carbon emission rights trading from the perspective of building carbon emission reduction,and enriches the relevant literature on carbon emission rights trading in the field of building energy conservation and emission reduction.Studies have shown that the implementation of building carbon emission rights trading can effectively reduce building carbon emissions,but the emission reduction effect is affected by many factors.In general,China should effectively improve the basic environment of policies,markets,and laws,and give full play to the leading role of carbon emissions trading in the field of building energy conservation and emission reduction.In the research process of this paper,there are a total of 35 figures,50 tables,and a total of 190 references.更多还原