【作者】 张晶；

【导师】 魏丽莉；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 应用经济学·区域经济学， 2021， 博士

【副题名】基于能力禀赋优势的路径遵循与路径创新

【摘要】 全球经济格局面临百年未有之大变局与挑战,此前的生产和分工体系持续性被打破,国际环境复杂性与动荡因素不断增加。自2008年以来,世界经济仍处在金融危机后的恢复阶段,新冠肺炎疫情的蔓延再次导致全球性经济衰退,更是强化了世界各国的复杂发展格局。后疫情时期,面临着不确定冲击与风险的加剧,地区抵御外部干扰、增强经济韧性,是经济发展的基本需求,也是经济高质量发展的关键因素。一直以来,中国与全球分工体系的紧密联系,很大程度上平衡了国内生产要素的供求关系。随着中国经济进入“新常态”,人口老龄化、债务杠杆、环境保护及结构失衡等约束条件问题突显。同时,全球格局的变化也增大了我国对外经济的不确定性风险,对宏观经济产生较大冲击,地区间发展差异呈现出扩大趋势,因而提升区域应对内外部冲击的经济韧性,是国家发展的重要战略问题。国家和地区经济发展依赖于生产能力的提升,是结构转型与转型所需能力的累积过程,经济结构对塑造区域应对不确定性冲击的表现起到重要作用。在中国共产党成立100周年及“十四五”规划的开局之年,全面建成小康社会基础上开启中国特色社会主义建设的新征程,重塑地区比较优势,提高生产要素利用效率,提升地区生产能力,加快产业结构转型升级,优化经济结构,是提升经济韧性、实现地区高质量增长的必然选择。那么地区要通过何种生产能力累积及产业转型升级路径,才能更有效率地促进经济高质量增长,提高应对内外部冲击的经济韧性?是应遵循既有能力禀赋优势发展路径,还是更应强调路径创新实现跨越式发展,这是值得探讨的问题。基于此,本文系统构建产品空间演进影响区域经济韧性的微观作用机制,使用中国海关进出口数据、CEPII-BACI全球贸易数据及中国省级层面数据,基于产品空间理论刻画2001-2016年中国省级产品空间演进与产业转型升级过程,并使用案例法、统计指标法和因果推断的反事实法衡量区域经济韧性,以剖析既有能力禀赋优势下经济韧性提升的路径遵循与路径创新。本研究以2001-2016年30个省域为研究对象,借助面板回归及Probit回归模型等方法,实证分析既有能力禀赋优势的路径遵循下产品空间演进对抵御、恢复能力和产业结构转型升级的影响,并讨论了遗漏变量、双向因果所导致的内生性和回归结果的稳健性问题,进一步分析人均GDP、市场化程度、国有经济占比和产品类型的异质性影响。同时,利用遗传算法的适应性模型,构建适应度地形中产品跳跃位置选择算法,假设以相同和相异的地区既有能力禀赋优势,分别跨越5或10的产品距离下,探讨省份显性比较优势产品数量及产品空间适应度的变化,以考察路径创新下经济韧性提升的最优路径选择。研究发现如下:(1)地区间的经济韧性差异远大于经济发展水平差异本文使用省级数据,通过抵御力、恢复力和产业结构转型升级衡量经济韧性,发现各省份经济韧性所呈现出的区域内部和区域间发展差距显著,远大于使用经济发展水平衡量的地区间差异,并没有明显的抵御力和恢复力“高-高”“低-低”集聚的特征。这一结果说明,以往通过经济发展水平探讨区域非均衡发展不够细致,并不足以说明地区间发展路径的分化问题。经济韧性能够以动态演化展现地区发展过程,是分析区域非均衡发展的全新视角。在全球不确定风险加剧的背景下,以经济韧性角度全方位深入探究地区高质量增长和发展分化,是制定区域协调发展政策的关键。(2)产品空间演进是提升区域经济韧性的重要途径产品空间演进对区域经济韧性提升具有显著促进作用,是解释地区发展路径分化的有力证据。根据产品空间理论,产品空间网络呈现出“中心-外围”结构,产品空间演进伴随着产品密度的提高,以及产品从边缘区域向中心位置集聚,表现出地区显性比较优势产品数量及产品技术复杂度“量与质”的提高。中国省际产品空间表现出五种不同的演进特征,分别为基础良好并逐渐上升型、基础良好发展缓慢型、基础良好但发展衰退型、基础较差且发展缓慢甚至衰退型、基础较差但发展迅猛型。对于基础良好且逐渐上升型的上海市,显性比较优势产品及高技术复杂度产品多,新产品出现概率更高,冲击后的恢复力较强。基础较差且发展缓慢甚至衰退型的山西省,失势产品数量较多,产业转型升级困难,抵御力较低且冲击过后的恢复较慢。产品空间演进通过“量与质”促进地区生产能力的积累,有利于地区抵御力、恢复力的提升及产业结构转型升级。(3)产品空间演进对经济韧性提升的影响效应呈现出既有能力禀赋优势的路径遵循特征研究发现区域经济韧性提升路径遵循于地区产品空间既有生产能力禀赋优势,具有较高生产能力禀赋优势的地区,抵御力和恢复力更强。同时,产品空间密度具有促进产业结构转型升级和阻止产业衰退的双重作用,总体来看前者效应大于后者。经济发展水平和市场化程度越高的地区,经济韧性提升对既有生产能力禀赋优势的路径依赖程度更低,能力禀赋优势的路径偏离显著,地区间发展分化现象更为突出。国有经济占比较高的地区,更依赖于当前能力禀赋优势,有一定阻碍产业转型升级的现象,而较低国有经济占比的产业转型升级效应不显著。劳动密集型和资本密集型产品,当前能力禀赋优势保持和阻碍产业衰退的效应更强,技术密集型产品的产业升级效应明显。(4)地区生产能力与产品技术复杂度塑造了经济韧性提升的创新发展路径本文通过地区企业数量对初始生产能力禀赋进行设定,根据Von Neumann邻近分析产品在适应度地形中跳跃的位置。结果发现,当设定各省份具有相异的初始生产能力禀赋时,产品跳跃的距离为5或10,都呈现出相似的发展趋势。初始生产能力禀赋较高的地区,适应度更高,区域经济韧性更强,而初始生产能力禀赋低的地区,出现了可能的增长陷阱。因此提高地区生产能力禀赋优势,更容易通过路径创新,出现高技术复杂度高附加值产品,提升区域经济韧性。当设定各省份具有相同的初始能力禀赋,产品跳跃的距离为5或10,初始生产能力禀赋与适应度没有明显的相关性。随着模拟次数的增多,各省份发展路径与不同初始生产能力禀赋假设下的发展趋势出现一致性,但增长俱乐部特征更为明显。产品跨越距离从5上升到10时,地区间适应度整体提升且差距缩小。虽然将初始企业数量设定为相同水平,但各省份显性比较优势产品类型差异巨大,因此地区生产产品的质量变得尤为重要。更多技术密集型产品,增大了路径创新的潜力,加快了产业结构转型,是促进经济韧性提升的关键因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 The global economy is marked by changes and challenges unseen in a century,meaning that the previous global fragmentation of production is being disrupted and the volatility of the international environment increasing.Since 2008,the world economy is still recovering from the financial crisis,but the COVID-19 pandemic has again led to a global recession,reinforcing the change and challenge by a more complex development pattern in all countries of the world.In the Post-COVID-19 period,faced with increased uncertainty shocks and risks,it is a fundamental element of economic development and a key indicator of high-quality economic development for regions to withstand external disruptions and enhance economic resilience.For a long time,China’s close integration with GVC has largely balanced the supply and demand of domestic production factors.China’s economy has entered a period of new normal,constraints such as an aging population,debt leverage,environmental protection,and structural imbalances are prominent.While the reshaping of the global development pattern has also increased the uncertainty risk of China’s external economy,which has had a significant impact on the macroeconomy,and the differences in development between regions have shown a tendency of continued expansion.Therefore,enhancing the regional economic resilience to cope with internal and external shocks has become an important strategic issue for national development.Economic development depends on the upgrading of productive capacities,which is a process of structural transformation and the accumulation of capabilities needed for transformation.Economic structure plays an important role in shaping regional performance in response to uncertainty shocks.In The 100th Anniversary of the Founding of The Communist Party of China and the first year of the 14th Five Year Plan,a new journey of socialism with Chinese characteristics is being launched based on building a moderately prosperous society in all respects.As a result,reshaping the comparative advantages of the region,improving the utilization efficiency of production factors,enhancing the production capacity of the region,optimizing the economic structure,and accelerating the transformation and upgrading,it is inevitable choice to enhance economic resilience and achieve high-quality regional economic growth.What is the path of accumulation of productive capacity endowment and industrial transformation and upgrading that will enable the region to promote economic growth more efficiently and increase its economic resilience to internal and external shocks?It is worth exploring whether we should follow a development path that is based on the strengths of existing capacity endowment,or whether we should place more emphasis on path innovation to achieve leapfrog development.Therefore,The paper systematically constructs the micro-level mechanisms of product space change affecting regional economic resilience.Using Chinese customs data,CEPIIBACI global trade data,and Chinese provincial-level data,this paper depicts product space change,industrial transformation and upgrading at the provincial level in China from 2001 to 2016 based on product space theory,and measures the economic resilience at the provincial level using the case method,the statistical indicator method,and the counterfactual method.In this way,the paper analyzes the path dependence and path innovation of economic resilience given the existing advantages of capacity endowments.Using Probit regression models and panel regressions as the research object that 30 provinces from 2001 to 2016,the study empirically analyzes the impact of product space change on resistance and recovery,as well as industrial structural transformation and upgrading under the path dependence of existing capacity endowment advantages.The endogeneity due to omitted variables and bidirectional causation and robustness of regression results are also discussed.The heterogeneity of provincial GDP per capita,degree of marketisation,the share of state-owned economy,and product type is further analyzed.At the same time,using the fitness landscape of a genetic algorithm,assuming that product span distance of 5 or 10 for the same and different capacity endowment advantages respectively,the product jump location selection algorithm is constructed to analyze the change products with a dominant comparative advantage and the degree of fitness in the province.This explores the optimal path for enhancing economic resilience.The findings are as follows:(1)Differences in economic resilience between regions are much greater than in levels of economic development.The paper uses provincial data to measure economic resilience through resistance,recovery,and industrial structural transformation and upgrading,and finds that the intra-regional and inter-regional development gaps in economic resilience across provinces are still large,with regional differences in economic resilience are much greater than the regional differences measured by economic development levels.And there is no clear "high-high" and "low-low" clustering of resistance and recovery.This result suggests that the previous discussion of regional uneven development through the level of economic development is still not sufficiently detailed to illustrate the differences in development paths between regions.Economic resilience provides a dynamic perspective on regional development processes and is a new way of analyzing uneven region development.Under the backdrop of heightened global uncertainty and risk,a comprehensive and in-depth examination of intra-regional development differentiation through the lens of regional resilience in response to shocks is key to the formulation of coordinated regional development policies.(2)Product space change is an important way to improve regional economic resilience.Product space change contributes significantly to regional economic resilience,which is a strong explanation for the divergence of regional development paths.According to product space theory,the product space network is a "centerperiphery" structure.With the evolution of product space,product density is increasing and products are clustering from the periphery to the center,showing an increase in the number of products with significant comparative advantage and the technical complexity of products,both quantitatively and qualitatively.The product space of Chinese provinces shows five different evolutionary characteristics,which are good and rising,good and slow,good but declining,poor and slow or even declining,and poor but fast-growing.For Shanghai is a good foundation and gradually rising,there are many products with significant comparative advantages and high technological complexity,and the probability of new products emerging is higher,and the recovery from shocks is stronger.While Shanxi is a poor foundation and developing slowly or even declining,has more products that are losing ground,and it is difficult to transform and upgrade its industry,which is less resistant and slower to recover from shocks.The evolution of product space through the accumulation of "quantitative and qualitative"endowments of productive capacity,is conducive to regional resistance and recovery,as well as the transformation and upgrading of industrial structures.(3)The effect of product space change on enhancing economic resilience is characterized by the path dependence of the advantages of capacity endowments.Product space theory suggests that the emergence of new products of comparative advantage depends on the existing dominant products of comparative advantage around them.It is related to the proximity of products to each other.The paper finds that the increased regional economic resilience follows existing productive capacity endowments in product space.Regions with productive capacity endowments are more resistant and recovered.At the same time,product space density has the dual effect of promoting the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure and discouraging industrial decline,with the former effect being greater than the latter in general.Regions with a higher GDP per capita and marketisation have a lower degree of path dependence on the current capability endowment advantage for economic resilience enhancement and have a more pronounced deviation from the path of capability endowment advantage,and a more prominent differentiation in development between regions.Regions with a higher share of the state-owned are more dependent on the current capability endowment advantage,and hinder industrial transformation and upgrading,while the lower share of state-owned economies is not significant.For labor-intensive and capital-intensive products,current capacity endowment advantages have stronger effects for maintaining and hindering industrial recession.While industrial upgrading effects are significant for technology-intensive products.(4)The accumulation of productive capacity endowments and the technological complexity of products shape the path innovative for enhancing regional economic resilience.In the paper,the initial endowment of production capacity is set by the number of firms in the region,and the position of the product in the fitness landscape is analyzed according to the Von Neumann neighborhood.It is found that when provinces were set with different initial productive capacity endowments,assuming that products could jump a distance of 5 or 10,a similar development trend was observed.Regions with higher initial productive capacity endowments are more resilient in terms of adaptation and regional economic resilience,while regions with low initial productive capacity endowments experienced a possible growth trap.Thus increasing the accumulation of regional productive capacity endowments makes it easier to innovate through breakthrough paths,resulting in high technological sophistication and high value-added products,which enhances regional economic resilience.When provinces are assumed to have the same initial capacity endowment and a product jump distance of 5 or 10,there is no significant correlation between the initial production capacity endowment and the degree of adaptation.As the number of simulations increases,the development paths of the provinces are consistent with the trends under different initial capacity endowment assumptions,but with more pronounced growth club characteristics.As the product spanning distance increases from 5 to 10,the fitness gap between regions decreases.Although the number of initial firms is set at the same level across provinces,there are significant differences in the types of products,so the quality of the products becomes particularly important.More technology-intensive products have a greater potential for path innovation and accelerate structural transformation.It is a key factor for promoting economic resilience.更多还原