【作者】 李威；

【导师】 赵涛；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2019， 博士

【摘要】 降低能源强度不仅是我国经济可持续发展的重要保证,还是缓解环境污染和温室气体排放压力的关键举措。本文通过对我国能源强度的现状分析发现,我国能源强度整体呈下降趋势,但我国能源强度降低仍面临着两个困境:各省之间不断扩大的能源强度差距,和高能源强度省(能源强度高于全国平均水平的省)的能源强度下降率较低,即“差异”困境和“追赶”困境。能源强度收敛指各地区能源强度水平随时间逐渐趋向接近,因此通过探究我国能源强度收敛可为破解上述困境提供了关键理论支持。本文分别采用目前应用较为广泛的收敛方法,包括σ收敛,β收敛和动态分布收敛,从“差异”、“追赶”和“动态”的视角互为补充地表征了收敛过程。研究结果发现:我国能源强度满足β收敛和动态分布收敛,但并不满足σ收敛。此结果说明整体上部分高能源强度省成功追赶上低能源强度省,而且我国整体能源强度向低能源强度收敛,但是由于少部分省的能源强度仍存在下降难度,导致我国各省之间能源强度差异变大。为破解上述“差异”困境,本文研究了我国能源强度σ收敛来源,识别导致我国能源强度差异扩大的关键省。研究结果发现:促进我国能源强度收敛的主要来源是能源强度较低的山东省、福建省、江苏省和江西省;阻碍收敛的主要来源是能源强度较低的北京市、上海市、辽宁省、黑龙江省、湖北省和能源强度较高的内蒙古自治区、新疆维吾尔自治区和河北省。以上结果说明我国能源强度的发散主要由低能源强度省和高能源强度省之间差异变大导致,内蒙古自治区、新疆维吾尔自治区和河北省是解决“差异”困境需要关注的关键省。内蒙古自治区、新疆维吾尔自治区能源强度的下降难点在于落后经济水平和较低的能源效率;河北省的能源强度下降难点在于重工业化的产业结构。为破解上述“追赶”的困境,本文研究了我国能源强度β收敛的影响因素,识别了高能源强度省追赶低能源强度省的关键因素。研究结果发现:我国能源强度收敛主要得益于效率效应,结构效应对整体收敛有较小的阻碍作用;第二产业是效率效应的主要贡献者并促进了整体收敛,第三产业的效率效应对整体收敛有较小的阻碍作用,第一产业的影响并不显著;第二产业是结构效应的主要贡献者,而第一三产业的结构效应并不显著。本文的研究结果强调高能源强度省追赶低能源强度省的关键途径不仅在于提升第二产业能源效率,还应同时注重第三产业能源效率的提升,此外,关注自身产业结构调整,并避免承接能源密集型行业。更多还原

【Abstract】 The reduction of energy intensity is not only an important guarantee for China’s sustainable economic development strategy,but also a key to alleviate the pressure of environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.Through the analysis of current situation of energy intensity in China,it was found that the overall energy intensity in China declined in the period of 2000-2015.However,high energy intensity provinces(higher energy intensity than the national average)had lower energy intensity decline rate than the low energy intensity provinces(lower energy intensity than the national average),.Under this circumstance,the energy intensity gap among provinces will be widen.Therefore,China’s energy intensity reduction is facing two dilemmas:the widening energy gap among provinces("gap" dilemma)and the lower energy intensity reduction rate of high energy intensity provinces("catch-up" dilemmas).Energy intensity convergence indicates the regional energy intensities tend to be similar gradually over time.Exploring the energy intensity convergence in China will provide a vital theoretical support for solving the above dilemmas.In this dissertation,three well-established convergence methods,σ convergence,β convergence and dynamic distribution convergence,are used,to describe convergence process from the perspectives of "gap","catch-up" and "dynamic",respectively.It was found that the energy intensity in China satisfied β and dynamic distribution convergence,but not σ convergence.This result indicated that some high energy intensity provinces have successfully caught up with the low ones,and the overall provincial energy intensities converged to the lower energy intensity.However,a few high energy intensity provinces still had difficulty in energy intensity reduction.To solve the dilemma of "gap",this dissertation studied the sources of σconvergence of energy intensity in China,and aimed to find out the key provinces that result in the widening energy intensity gap.It was found that the main sources of promoting energy intensity convergence in China were Shandong,Fujian,Jiangsu and Jiangxi with lower energy intensity,while the main sources of impeding energy intensity convergence were Beijing,Shanghai,Liaoning,Heilongjiang,Hubei provinces with lower intensity and Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang,Hebei provinces with higher intensity.These results suggested that the divergence of energy intensity in China was mainly caused by the gap between the mentioned low and high energy intensity provinces.Reducing the energy intensities of Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang and Hebei are the key to solve the "gap" dilemma in China.The difficulties of energy intensity reduction in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang were the lagging economy and low energy efficiency.While the energy-intensive industrial structure was the difficulty of energy intensity reduction in Hebei.To solve the dilemma of "catch-up",this dissertation studied the factors which influences β convergence of energy intensity in China,and identified the key factors for the catch-up of high energy intensity provinces.The results showed that the catch-up of high energy intensity provinces mainly benefited from efficiency effect,and the structural effect had a relatively minor hindering impact on the catch-up.For efficiency effect,the secondary industry,as main contributor,promotes the convergence while the influence of tertiary industry’s efficiency effect impeded the overall convergence.Besides,the impact of the primary industry was not significant.For structural effect,the secondary industry was also the main contribution,while the influences of the primary and tertiary industries were not significant.It can be seen that,high energy intensity provinces not only need to improve the energy efficiency of the secondary industry further to catch up with the low ones,but should also pay attention to the energy efficiency of the tertiary industry.In addition,upgrading the industrial structure and avoidance of undertaking energy-intensive industries are also crucial for the catch-up of high energy intensity provinces.更多还原