节点文献
中国农村流动人口城市居住选择研究
【作者】 王伟；
【导师】 陈杰；
【作者基本信息】 上海财经大学 ， 房地产经济学， 2020， 博士
【摘要】 稳定居住是任何时期人类生存和发展的重要因素之一。农村流动人口在过去几十年的城镇化建设中为我国城市经济的发展做出了巨大贡献,该群体通过地域流动,在逐步完成职业转换、身份转型。农村流动人口在获得“劳动力接纳”的同时,仍然面临着“社会性排斥”。“社会性排斥”中的“居住排斥”已经成为农村流动人口融入城市的一大障碍。农村流动人口在城市居住空间上已出现城市与乡村之外的居住空间第三元。这一第三元空间与状态的存在引发一系列社会问题,成为农村流动人口“半城市化问题”中的重要方面,深刻影响着农村流动人口在城市的获得感、安全感与幸福感。提高新型城镇化质量,解决发展不平衡不充分问题是现阶段我国“以人为本”城镇化建设的关键任务。农村流动人口就是发展不平衡不充分中特别需要重点关注的群体。研究农村流动人口在流入地城市的居住选择行为具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。在理论价值上,以中国的大样本数据作为试验场所,聚焦于新移民在流入地城市的居住选择的行为特征,以窥探在新的时代背景下发展中国家的移民在新城市居住选择行为存在怎样的变化,从而深化和丰富了发展中国家移民在新城市居住选择行为的研究内容。而在现实意义上,无论从国家层面、城市层面还是微观层面都具有重要的经济社会意义。其一,拥有宜居性、满足举家迁移需求的城市住房是农村流动人口顺利完成市民化过程的重要物质屏障。如何提高具有稳定就业能力的农村流动人口在城市定居的意愿,促进其在城市实现安居乐业的目标,成为农村流动人口顺利完成市民化过程以及实现高质量城镇化发展的关键任务。其二,妥善解决农村流动人口在城市的居住问题,保障其城市居住权,增强该群体在流入地城市的“居住获得感”,才能增强农村流动人口与流入城市的“粘度”,促进流入地城市持续性获得流动人口红利。其三,居住环境质量显著影响农村流动人口在城市的人力资本积累、社会交往空间,是融入城市主流社会的重要纽带。同时,这也是实现农村流动人口举家迁移至城市,解决留守儿童、留守妇女、留守老人等“三大留守问题”的关键,社会意义重大。本研究基于2014-2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,在综合运用理性选择理论、人力资本理论、迁移理论、居住历程理论等框架下,聚焦于我国农村流动人口在城市的居住选择行为,从城市定居意愿、住房租买选择与居住质量三大内容,剖析该群体的城市居住选择行为,研究其内在影响机制。试图通过上述研究,为政府进一步制订有关农村流动人口城市定居安居方面的政策提供有价值的建议。“理性人”会通过迁移和流动,从人力资本低回报地区迁移至高回报地区,从而从微观层面上提高自身的“生产力”,即获取“经济激励”。人力资本在不同地区、不同产业部门所获得的“生产力”不同。通过选择与自身人力资本相匹配的工作地点,从而实现经济收益的最大化。本研究紧紧抓住流动人口所特有的“经济激励”这一因素,对农村流动人口城市居住选择行为内在影响机制进行较为系统全面地研究:第一,以人力资本理论为基础,构建农村流动人口在流入地城市所获得的经济激励,基于迁移成本-收益理论,探讨农村流动人口城市定居意愿的影响机制,关注经济激励、迁移距离等关键变量如何影响农村流动人口的城市定居决策。第二,以理性选择理论为基础,研究农村流动人口在城市的住房租买选择行为的影响机制,重点识别经济激励、收入不确定性、城市层面金融资源可获得性等关键变量对该群体在城市的住房权属选择的影响作用。第三,基于住房阶层理论,以农村流动人口特殊的“利益联根式”流动为切入点,剖析农村流动人口在城市居住质量的影响机制,聚焦经济激励、土地资源禀赋等关键因素对该群体在城市居住质量的影响。本研究可能的创新点集中于研究视角以及研究方法两方面:首先,研究视角方面的创新。本研究将分别从成本-收益、不确定性以及利益联根式流动三个不同视角分别对农村流动人口城市定居意愿、住房权属以及居住质量的内在影响机制进行剖析。从具体研究内容上,抓住农村流动人口这一群体的特殊性,重点聚焦于经济激励、迁移距离、收入不确定性、金融资源可获得性以及土地资源禀赋等关键变量在农村流动人口城市居住选择行为中产生怎样的影响。其次,研究方法(变量选择)的创新。一方面,本研究中基于人力资本理论,构建了微观层面农村流动人口家庭在流入地城市的经济激励,并且全面考察了经济激励在农村流动人口城市居住选择行为中的重要作用。另一方面,在分析农村流动人口城市居住质量时,在被解释变量上,将农村流动人口城市居住质量从“质”(人居健康指数)和“量”(人均住房建筑面积)两个方面来衡量。在关键解释变量上,将土地资源禀赋分解为权属特征(土地资源禀赋指数)以及现实收益两个关键变量,探讨土地资源禀赋对农村流动人口城市居住质量的影响,究竟是“锁定效应”还是“财富效应”。本文关于农村流动人口城市居住选择行为有如下研究发现:(1)经济激励是影响农村流动人口家庭城市居住选择行为的重要因素。其一,经济激励对该群体的城市定居意愿起到显著的“拉动”作用。同时,经济激励对农村流动人口城市定居意愿的边际效用会随着经济激励水平的提高而逐步下降。相较省内流动的样本,经济激励对实现跨省流动的农村流动人口城市定居意愿的边际效用更大。其二,无论是从客观的经济能力还是从主观心理认知上,当农村流动人口在流入地获得较高的经济激励时,会促使他们在该地的住房拥有率随之提高。第三,经济激励无论是对农村流动人口在城市的人均住房建筑面积还是居住环境健康程度均存在显著的正向影响。经济激励对农村流动人口在城市人均住房建筑面积的正向影响会部分通过中介变量城市定居意愿来实现。(2)迁移距离、收入不确定性、城市层面住房融资友好度以及土地资源禀赋是农村流动人口城市居住选择行为中不可忽略的重要因素。其一,经济激励对农村流动人口城市定居意愿的边际效用会随着流入地与户籍地空间距离的增加而逐步下降。其二,家庭收入不确定性的增加不仅对农村流动人口在城市的住房拥有率存在直接的负向影响,同时也会通过降低经济激励对农村流动人口城市购房概率的正向作用而产生间接的负面效应。第三,城市层面“住房融资友好度”对农村流动人口家庭在流入地城市的住房购买概率存在显著的正向影响。第四,土地资源禀赋的权属情况对农村流动人口城市居住质量(人均住房建筑面积)起到负向的“锁定效应”。同时,土地资源禀赋带来的现实收益对农村流动人口的居住健康环境能够起到一定的正面影响,产生显著的正向“财富效应”。(3)农村流动人口家庭在城市居住选择行为方面表现出多维度的异质性特征,包括代际差异在内的人口社会学特征方面的群体异质性以及不同城市规模与层级方面的空间异质性。基于以上研究发现,就如何积极推动有能力的农村流动人口在城市稳定居住,使其在城市实现“住有所居”方面提出如下政策建议:稳定并适度扩大农村流动人口在城镇的就业空间,保障其获得合理薪资的权利;优化住房供应结构,根据不同类型不同区域范围的农村流动人口家庭采取订制化的住房政策措施,精细化解决不同居住阶层的农村流动人口家庭在城市的住房问题,提高政策的有效性;多样化针对农村流动人口的住房金融资源,尤其增强住房公积金保障体系所释放的“住房融资环境友好”的信号;类别化解决农村流动人口在乡村的土地资源禀赋流转问题。
【Abstract】 Living stably is one of the important factors for human survival and development in any period.In the past few decades,the rural migrants,who have been gradually completing the career transformation and identity transformation through the geographical flow,have made great contribution to the development of China’s urban economy.Rural migrants are still facing "social exclusion" while receiving "labor acceptance".Residential exclusion,one aspect of "social exclusion",has become a major obstacle to the integration of rural migrants into the city.Rural migrants live on the edge of cities,"the third space".The existence of the "third space" has caused a series of social problems and became an important aspect of the "semi-urbanization problem" of the rural migrants.It profoundly affects the rural migrants’ sense of acquisition,security and well-being in cities.Improving the quality of "New Type of Urbanization" and solving the problem of insufficient development imbalance is the key task of "people-oriented" urbanization construction in China at present.Special attention is needed on rural migrants,because they are a particularly important group in the unbalanced and inadequate development.In terms of theoretical value,taking China’s large sample data as a test,the paper focuses on behavior of new immigrants’ residential choices in inflow cities,in order to see how the behavior of migrants in developing countries in new cities has changed in the new era.Thus,the research on residential choice of migrants in developing countries might be enriched.How to promote of rural migrants’ long-term stable residence in the city,has important economic and social significance,whether from the national level,the city level or the micro level.First,urban housing with livability,which could meet the needs of family migration,is an important material foundation for successful citizenization of rural migrant.How to improve the willingness of the rural migrants with competence to settle in the city,and to realize the goal of living and working in peace and contentment,have become the key task for civilization of rural migrants and development of high-quality urbanization.Second,to enhance the "viscosity" between rural migrants and migratory cities and ensure that the destination receives a lasting demographic dividend,it is the key for government to properly solve the living problem for rural migrants in the city,protect their urban right of residence,and enhance their "sense of acquisition of residence".Third,the quality of living environment,which is an important link into the mainstream of urban society,significantly affects the rural migrants’ human capital accumulation,social interaction space.At the same time,it is also the key to realize family migration to cities for rural migrants and solve the "three left-behind problems" such as left-behind children,left-behind women and the elderly,which is of great social significance.Based on the dynamic monitoring survey data of China’s floating population from2014 to 2017,this study focuses on residential choice of rural migrants in urban areas,under the framework of the comprehensive application of rational choice theory,human capital theory,migration theory and residence history theory.The urban settlement intention,housing tenure choice and the level of housing consumption are three main contents of the residential choice of rural migrants.Internal influence mechanism of rural migrants’ residential choice is studied.Through the above-mentioned study,valuable advice is provided to the government on the further formulation of policies on urban housing for rural migrants."Rational people" will migrate from low-return areas of human capital to high-return areas through migration or mobility,thereby improving their "productivity" at the micro level,that is,to obtain "economic incentive".Human capital has different "productivity" in different regions and industrial sectors.By choosing a workplace that matches their human capital,economic benefits can be maximized.Grasping the "economic incentive" which is unique to the floating population,this study make a systematic and comprehensive study on the internal influence mechanism of urban residential choice of rural migrants: First,based on the theory of human capital,construct the micro-level economic incentive that rural migrants can obtain in the inflow cities,this paper discusses the influence mechanism of the willingness of rural migrant population to settle in cities from the perspective of cost-benefit analysis,and pays attention to how key variables such as economic incentive and migration distance affect the decision-making of urban settlement of rural migrants.Second,based on the rational choice theory,the influence mechanism of rural migrants’ housing tenure choice in cities is studied,focusing on identifying the influence of key variables such as economic incentive,income uncertainty and availability of financial resources at the urban level on the housing ownership choice of the target group.Third,based on the theory of housing class,taking the special "interest-based" flow of rural migrants as the starting point,the influence mechanism of housing consumption level of rural migrants in urban areas is analyzed,analyzing the influence of key factors such as economic incentive and land resource endowment on urban dwelling quality of the group.The possible innovations of this study focus on research perspectives and research methods: first,innovations in research perspectives.This study analyzes the inner influence mechanism of urban settlement intention,housing ownership and living quality of rural migrants from three different perspectives respectively: cost-benefit,uncertainty and interest-based mobility.Specifically,highlighting the particularity of rural migrants,the study focuses on the role of economic incentive,migration distance,income uncertainty,availability on financial resource and land resource endowment and other key variables in the rural migrants’ urban residential choice behavior.Second,the innovation of the research method(variable selection).On one hand,based on the theory of human capital,this study constructs the economic incentive of rural migrant households,"economic incentive",at the micro level,and comprehensively examines the important role of mobile dividend in the behavior of urban residential choice of rural migrants.One the other hand,for the analysis on the dwelling quality of rural migrants,the land resource endowment is decomposed into two key variables,which are the ownership characteristic(land resource endowment index)and the actual return from the land resource endowment.And the role of these two key variables in the influence factor model of urban living quality of rural migrants is empirically tested,to explore the influence of land resource endowment on rural migrants’ urban living quality,whether it is “locking effect” or “wealth effect”.In addition,in terms of the explained variables,rural migrants’ urban living quality was measured from two aspects: the “quality”(residential health index)and “quantity”(per capita housing floor area).In this paper,research finding on the residential choice of rural migrants are listed as follows:(1)the economic incentive is an important factor affecting the urban residential choice of rural migrant families.First,it plays a significant role in the group’s willingness to settle in cities.At the same time,the marginal effect of the economic incentive on the urban settlement intention of rural migrants gradually decrease with the improvement of the level of the economic incentive.Compared with the sample with intra-provincial mobility,the economic incentive has a greater marginal effect on the urban settlement intention of rural migrants with cross-provincial mobility.Second,whether from objective economic ability or subjective psychological cognition,when the rural migrants obtain a higher inflow dividend from the inflow areas,it will promote their home ownership in the inflow areas.Third,the economic incentive has a significant positive impact on the per capita living area of rural migrants in cities and on the health of living environment.The above positive effect is partially realized by intermediary variable“urban settlement intentions”.(2)Migration distance,income uncertainty,availability on financial resource and land resource endowment are important factors that could not be ignored in analysis of urban residential choice of rural migrants.First,the marginal effect of the economic incentive on the willingness of rural migrant to settle in urban areas will gradually decrease with the increase of the distance between the inflow and the space of the domicile.Second,the increase of household income uncertainty not only has a direct negative impact on home ownership rate of rural migrants in urban areas,but also has indirect negative effects by reducing the positive effect of the economic incentive on the probability of purchasing home of rural migrants.Third,the "housing financing friendliness" at the urban level has a significant positive impact on the probability of rural migrant families on purchasing home in cities where they have flowed in.Fourth,the ownership of land resource endowment plays a negative "locking effect" on the living quality(per capita living area)for rural migrants.At the same time,the income brought by land resource endowment can have a certain positive "wealth effect" on health of living environment for rural migrants.(3)Rural migrant families show multi-dimensional heterogeneity in urban residential choice behavior,such as group heterogeneity in demographic characteristics,including inter-generational differences,and spatial heterogeneity in the size and hierarchy of different cities.On the basis of the above research findings,some policy proposals are put forward on how to actively promote rural migrants who have capacities for work to live in cities in a stable way,so that they can achieve " Everyone has a roof over the head" in the city,as follows: To stabilize and moderately expand the employment chances of the rural migrants in cities or towns,to guarantee their right on a reasonable salary;To adopt customized housing policy measures to solve the housing problems of rural migrant families and improve the effectiveness of policies,according to personalized demand from rural migrant families in different regions or different living strata in cities;To strengthen the signal of " friendly housing financing environment ",which is released by the housing provident fund system;To classify the rural migrants and solve properly the problem of their transferring of land resources in rural areas.