“精准扩中”路径研究

【作者】 李波；

【导师】 何玉长；

【作者基本信息】 上海财经大学 ， 政治经济学， 2020， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放伊始,中国就提出了三步走战略目标,解决温饱、实现小康,到21世纪中叶基本实现现代化。进入新千年时,我国已经宣布基本建成小康社会。近年来,我国党和政府进一步提出到2020年全面建成小康社会的目标。全面小康即是全体人民的小康,不让一人掉队的小康。中国特色社会主义已经进入新时代,党的十九大为此做出新的战略安排:从2020——2035年,在全面建成小康社会的基础上,再奋斗十五年,基本实现社会主义现代化,共同富裕迈出坚实步伐;从2035年——本世纪中叶,在基本实现社会主义现代化的基础上,再奋斗十五年,把我国建成富强民主文明和谐美丽的社会主义现代化强国,共同富裕基本实现。在全面建成小康社会的决胜期的当下,改善居民收入分配关系至关重要,而重点又在于扩大中等收入群体,逐渐缩小城乡、地区及行业间差距,加快构建“橄榄型”收入分配格局。“精准扩中”相对于“粗放扩中”而言,改变以往粗略而漫灌的“扩中”方式,采取准确而涓滴的“扩中”方式。主要包含“精准识别”、“精准施策”两个层面。“精准识别”即借助互联网、大数据及云计算等现代高新信息技术精准地识别各居民收入层次,尤其是识别“潜在中等收入者”,为收入分配调节提供依据;“精准施策”即对已经识别出的“潜在中等收入者”精确分析其收入低下原因,分类施策,如通过扶持优势产业、新型城镇化建设、社会保障兜底等手段来扩大中等收入群体。“精准扩中”利于资源的高效配置和合理利用,既是建设资源节约型社会的题中之意,更是构建和谐社会的本质要求。习近平总书记提出“精准扶贫”战略,具体指:扶持对象精准、项目安排精准、资金使用精准、措施到户精准、因村派人精准及脱贫成效精准。“精准扶贫”是一种精细化的扶贫方式,重点在于帮助每一个贫困人口找出贫困的根源所在,并为其寻找破解之道,使得每一个贫困人口脱贫致富。农村贫困人口是低收入群体的最底层。提升低收入者收入水平、扩大中等收入群体,首要任务就是要在2020年全面建成小康社会前,使农村贫困人口成功脱贫,全国贫困县全部脱贫摘帽。这是“精准扩中”首要前提,符合“精准扩中”内在逻辑,进而成功实现“精准扩中”与“精准扶贫”有效对接。中等收入群体通常具有稳定社会功能、推动社会改良、促进社会消费、引领社会风尚等积极作用。在经济层面上,中国经济发展已经进入新常态,传统依靠投资和出口的粗放型增长模式已不可持续,通过消费来拉动内需是促进我国经济增长的重要支撑点。中等收入群体具有较高的消费倾向,因而“精准扩中”有利于推动我国消费水平和质量迈上新台阶,进而推动我国经济迈向更高质量发展阶段;在政治层面上,中国社会的性质是社会主义,不是资本主义、也不是“第三条道路”,目标是通过生产力的高速发展逐步使得发展成果共享,最终实现共同富裕。“精准扩中”有利于缩小贫富差距,进而加快实现共同富裕的步伐;在社会层面上,中等收入群体占主体的“橄榄型”社会,是人民安居乐业、社会和谐安定的强大保障。“精准扩中”有利于社会财富的均衡配置、缓解人民内部矛盾,进而维持社会的和谐稳定;在文化层面上,中等收入群体通常具有保守温和的价值观念,构成社会中的主流价值观念。“精准扩中”有利于全社会形成积极向上的意识形态,构建风清气爽的社会风气,避免各种社会矛盾引发极端行为的产生。“精准扩中”是我国在2020年全面建成小康社会的重要举措之一,也是落实新发展理念的本质要求,更是社会主义政党执政为民的内在体现。在新时代下,对“精准扩中”的路径研究具有强大的现实意义。本文的主要架构分为以下几大部分:第一章,导论。本部分主要对论文研究背景、选题意义、基本概念界定、相关文献综述、研究方法及创新点、研究思路及框架进行阐述,为后续研究提供了思路和构建了总体框架。第二章,“精准扩中”路径研究的理论基础。本部分主要对于“精准扩中”的相关理论进行回顾与总结,为全文的研究提供坚实的理论支撑。主要包括四部分:马克思主义的收入分配理论、共同富裕论、公平效率论、社会阶级与分层论。第三章,我国中等收入群体的演变、测度及协整检验。首先,从经济发展和制度变迁的双重视角下来考察我国中等收入群体的演变与由来,经济发展包括经济增长、产业结构变迁,制度变迁包括经济所有制、收入分配制度;其次,采用国家统计收入分组数据,借鉴统计模型对全国、甘肃、河南及浙江的中等收入群体比重及数量进行全面的测度,进而揭示我国中等收入群体比重大小和空间布局;最后,采用现代时间序列计量经济学方法,分析中等收入群体比重与经济发展、人力资本存量的长期均衡及短期波动关系。第四章,我国中等收入群体现状与“精准扩中”现实困境。首先,从构成来源、价值观念、消费观念、脆弱性四个方面来详细分析了中等收入群体基本特点;其次,概括出我国现阶段中等收入群体的比重特征:比重偏低及增速放缓、城乡差距明显、区域差距突出;最后,分析了我国今后“精准扩中”面临的一些体制机制、思想及技术层面上的一些障碍。主要包括:收入分配制度改革滞后、新型城镇化建设面临挑战、社会保障制度不健全、农户思想观念落后及空心化现象凸显、“潜在中等收入者”识别障碍、社会阶层固化。第五章,“精准扩中”国际视野与经验借鉴。本部分通过梳理美国、日本及瑞典在发展中产阶级方面的经验与教训,如中产阶级发展道路各具特色、建立精简高效现代型政府、加大教育体制改革、发挥政府在再分配中作用,进而更高效“精准扩中”。第六章,“精准扩中”阶段目标与实现路径。本部分通过灰色组合预测模型,设定我国“精准扩中”的阶段目标为在2030年左右,全国中等收入群体的比重要突破60%,城乡比重差距缩小,比重增长速率逐渐稳定,“橄榄型”收入分配格局初步达致。共享型收入分配为“精准扩中”提供制度保障。大数据、云计算等现代信息网络技术为“精准扩中”提供技术支撑。具体实施路径为:加快新型城镇化建设、大力发展公共教育、扩大农民财产性收入、培育地区优势产业、完善社会保障建设、优化财政政策等。第七章,结论与展望。本部分主要高度概括了全文的基本结论:经济发展是“精准扩中”内生动力、制度创新是“精准扩中”有力推手、中等收入群体比重区域差距突出及增长速率递减、“精准扩中”回旋空间重点在农村、“精准扩中”存在诸多制约因素、坚持社会主义经济制度。以期为后续学者做深化研究提供思考。“精准扩中”与“精准扶贫”、乡村振兴、城乡一体化等战略部署既是一脉相承又与时俱进,有其理论逻辑与实践指向,深刻体现了历史唯物主义与辩证唯物主义,深刻体现了社会主义制度的强大生命力,是马克思主义政治经济学中国化的具体实践,中国共产党人必须一以贯之。更多还原

【Abstract】 At the beginning of reform and opening up,China has proposed a three-step strategic goal to solve the problem of food and clothing,achieve a well-off society,and basically achieve modernization by the middle of the 21 st century.When entering the new millennium,China has already announced the establishment of a well-off society.In recent years,the Chinese party and government have further proposed the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020.A comprehensive well-off society is the well-off of all the people,and it is not easy for one person to fall behind.Socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era.The 19 th National Congress of the Party has made new strategic arrangements for this: From 2020 to 2035,on the basis of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way,we will strive for another fifteen years to basically realize socialist modernization and take solid steps towards common prosperity.From 2035 to the middle of this century,on the basis of the basic realization of socialist modernization,we will struggle for another fifteen years to build China into a strong socialist modern country with prosperity,democracy,civilization,harmony,and beauty,and achieve common prosperity.At the moment of the decisive period for building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way,it is crucial to improve the relationship between the income distribution of residents.The focus is on expanding the middle-income groups,gradually narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas,regions and industries,and accelerating the construction of an "olive" income distribution pattern."Precision expansion" is relative to "extensive expansion",changing the "expansion" method of large and diffuse irrigation in the past,adopting a small and trickle-down "expansion" method.It mainly includes two aspects: "accurate identification" and "accurate policy".“Accurate identification” means to accurately identify the income level of each resident by means of modern high-tech information technologies such as the Internet,big data and cloud computing,especially to identify “potential middle-income earners” and provide a basis for income distribution adjustment;"Accurate policy" is to accurately analyze the causes of their low incomes for the "potential middle-income earners" that have been identified and to classify and apply policy.For example,by supporting advantageous industries,new urbanization,and social security,we will expand middle-income groups."Precision expansion" is conducive to the efficient allocation and rational use of resources.It is not only the meaning of building a resource-saving society,but also the essential requirement of building a harmonious society.General Secretary Xi Jinping has proposed a precise poverty reduction strategy,which specifically refers to the precise target of support,the precise arrangement of projects,the precise use of funds,the precise measures to households,the precise allocation of personnel according to villages and the precise results of poverty alleviation.Precise poverty reduction is a refined poverty reduction method,which focuses on helping every poor person to find the root cause of poverty,and to find a solution for it,so that every poor person out of poverty and become rich.The rural poor are the bottom of the low-income group.To raise the income level of low-income people and expand middle-income groups,the top priority is to lift the rural poor out of poverty and lift all poor counties out of poverty by 2020,when the Xiaokang is fully built.This is the first premise of accurate expansion,which is in accordance with the internal logic of accurate expansion,and it is successful to realize the effective docking of accurate expansion and accurate poverty reduction.Middle-income groups usually have a positive role in stabilizing social functions,promoting social improvement,promoting social consumption and leading social customs.At the economic level,the Chinese economy has entered a new normal and the traditional model of extensive growth based on investments and exports is no longer sustainable.To boost domestic demand through consumption is an important support point for China’s economic growth.Middle-income groups have a relatively high propensity to consume,so "precision expansion" is conducive to push China’s consumption level and quality to a new level and then push China’s economy to a higher quality development stage;At the political level,the nature of Chinese society is socialism,not capitalism or the third road.The goal is to gradually share the fruits of development through the rapid development of productive forces and eventually achieve common prosperity."Precision expansion" is conducive to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor and thus acceleratethe pace of achieving common prosperity;At the social level,the “olive-type” society in which the middle-income group occupies the main body is a strong guarantee for the people to live and work in peace and harmony."Precision expansion" is conducive to the balanced distribution of social wealth,ease internal contradictions among the people and maintain social harmony and stability;At the cultural level,middle-income groups often have conservative and moderate values that constitute the dominant value in society."Precise expansion" is conducive to the formation of a positive ideology of the whole society,the construction of a clear and refreshing social atmosphere,to avoid the emergence of extreme behavior caused by various social conflicts."Precision expansion" is one of the important measures for China to build a moderately prosperous society in all respects in 2020.It is also an essential requirement for the implementation of the new development concept and an intrinsic embodiment of the socialist political party ruling for the people.In the new era,the research on the path of "precision expansion" has a powerfully practical significance.The main structure of this article is divided into the following parts:Chapter1,Introduction.This part mainly expounds the background,significance,definition of basic concepts,related literature review,research methods and innovation points of the thesis,research ideas and framework,which provides the thought and the general framework for the follow-up study.Chapter2,theoretical basis of the "precision expansion" path research.This part mainly reviews and summarizes the relevant theories of "precision expansion" to provide solid theoretical support for the research of the full text.It mainly includes four parts: Marxist income distribution theory,common prosperity theory,fair efficiency theory,social class and stratification theory.Chapter3,the evolution,measurement and cointegration test of middle-income groups in China.First of all,from the perspective of economic development and institutional changes,this part examines the evolution and origin of middle-income groups in China.Economic development includes economic growth,industrial structure changes.Institutional changes include economic ownership,income distribution system.Secondly,using the data of national statistical income grouping,we can make a comprehensive measurement of the proportion and quantity of middle-income groups in the whole country,Gansu,Henan and Zhejiang,then it reveals the size and spatial distribution of the middle income group in China.Finally,the modern time series econometric method is used to analyze the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation relationship between the proportion of middle-income groups and economic development and human capital stock.Chapter4,the present situation of middle-income groups and the reality dilemma of "precision expansion".Firstly,this part analyzes the basic characteristics of the middle income group in detail from the four aspects of its source,value,consumption and vulnerability;Secondly,it summarizes the characteristics of the middle income group in China at this stage: low proportion and slow growth rate,obvious urban-rural gap,prominent regional gap;Finally,it analyzes some obstacles in the institutional mechanism,thought and technology of China’s "precision expansion" in the future.They include: lagging behind in the reform of the income distribution system,facing challenges in the construction of a new type of urbanization,imperfect social security system,backward rural households ideological concepts and hollow phenomenon highlights,obstacles to the identification of "potential middle income earners",and social class solidification.Chapter5,"precision expansion" international perspective and experience.This section is based on the experience and lessons of the development of the middle class in the United States,Japan and Sweden.For example,the middle class has its own unique development path,establishes a streamlined and efficiently modern government,increases the reform of the education system,gives full play to the role of the government in redistribution,thus making it more efficient to " precision expansion ".Chapter6,"precision expansion" stage goal and realization path.Through the grey combination prediction model,this part sets the stage target of China’s "precision expansion" to be around 2030,the proportion of middle-income groups in China will exceed 60 %,the proportion gap between urban and rural areas will narrow and the specific gravity growth rate is gradually stable.The income distribution pattern of "olive type" is basically achieved.Shared income distribution provides institutional guarantee for "precision expansion".Big data,cloud computing and other modern information network technologies provide technical support for "precision expansion".The specific implementation paths are as follows: accelerate the construction of a new type of urbanization,vigorously develop public education,expand farmers ’property income,cultivate superior industries in the region,improve social security construction,and optimize fiscal policies,etc.Chapter7,conclusions and prospects.This part mainly summarizes the basic conclusion of the full text: economic development is the internal motive force of " precision expansion ",the institutional innovation is a powerful push for "precise expansion",the regional gap in the proportion of middle-income groups is prominent and the growth rate is decreasing,"precision expansion" swing space focuses on rural areas,"precision expansion" has many constraints,adhere to the socialist economic system.In order to provide further research for the follow-up scholars.The strategic plans of "precision expansion" and " precision poverty alleviation ",rural revitalization,urban-rural integration are both consistent with each other and keep pace with the times.They have their theoretical logic and practical direction,profoundly embody historical materialism and dialectical materialism,and profoundly embody the strong vitality of the socialist system.It is a concrete practice of the sinicization of Marxist political economy.The Chinese Communists must always follow suit.更多还原