【作者】 王炜；

【导师】 罗守贵；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 产业经济学， 2017， 博士

【副题名】以上海为例

【摘要】 随着知识经济时代的到来,知识密集型产业在促进整个世界经济发展所起的作用越来越大,知识密集型产业的影响日益突出。本文围绕知识密集型产业的演化这一主题,基于国内外文献,以上海中国最重要的经济中心城市上海为研究对象,多角度综合立体地从微观、微-中观、中观视角提出了知识密集产业演化的四个关键问题:在微观视角中,创新与合作是知识密集型企业最为频繁和显著的活动,我们就知识密集型企业规模和数量变化规律提出关键问题。在微-中观视角中,企业内部组织方式和外部环境变动是相互作用的过程,在这一过程中,不同的细分产业、不同的所有制结构、不同的产业关联方式以及合作伙伴所处位置之间发生复杂的相互影响,我们就知识密集型产业演化绩效提出关键问题。在中观视角中,基于第二产业向第三产业演化以及知识密集型制造业逐步向知识密集型服务业转型,我们就知识密集型产业结构演化规律提出关键问题。在所提出的关键问题基础上,运用智能体仿真模型、三螺旋模型、实证研究等工具和方法进一步探析所提出的问题:在微观视角分析层面,基于Matlab大规模并行计算能力,采用智能体来模拟知识密集型企业频繁的自主创新和合作创新活动。企业在创新行为的基础上,不断地更新知识产品或知识服务来适应市场,致使企业规模的变化,从而在市场上呈现优胜劣汰。同时,在Netlogo仿真平台上,对知识密集型企业建立知识空间模型。企业进行保守合作和积极合作。通过不同合作方式间的知识交换,企业的数量经历了复制(模仿)、变异、选择的过程。在微-中观视角分析层面,基于上海市7年的科技型企业近十万个样本数据,本文创新地将螺旋理论运用于区位、组织类型、垂直空间关联及合作伙伴互动融合的研究,定量地从时间演化角度分析知识密集型产业演化绩效的差异。在中观视角分析层面,运用2000年-2015年《上海统计年鉴》数据,从知识密集型制造业和知识密集型服务业分别展开,采用数理统计、DEA方法、主成分分析、区位熵等方法分析与讨论上海知识密集型产业总体和细分产业的演化情况,运用回归模型研究知识密集型制造业和知识密集型服务业互动关系。通过智能体仿真模型、螺旋模型与实证研究等方法回答了所提出的关键问题,并得出以下主要结论:(1)知识密集型企业规模和数量的演化是一个动态的过程,企业对创新与合作方式的选择也是一个动态决策过程。不同的创新活动影响企业规模的变动方式:有弱者相对于强者的超越、强者更强与弱者更弱的马太效应、强弱者携手共同成长三种结果。不同的合作方式影响着市场上企业的数量:保守合作机制导致企业数量下降、积极合作机制导致企业数量先下降后上升。(2)上海知识密集型企业的组织类型对知识密集型产业的融合程度影响最大,合作伙伴对知识密集型产业的融合程度也有促进作用,垂直关联对知识密集型产业的融合程度的影响最小。这一调整方向和效果还处于较大的波动过程中,两两之间的作用仍处于不确定性的波动之中。(3)上海知识密集型制造业的演化经历了三个阶段:稳步增长、高速增长、缓慢增长,其细分产业的产值与利润并不成正比,其中通用设备制造业的知识密集程度最高。知识密集型服务业经历的三个阶段分别是下降阶段、稳定停滞阶段、稳步增长阶段。知识密集型服务业增加值与其它服务业增加值是正相关,与第二产业增加值有负相关关系。金融业产业对经济贡献最大,其集聚程度比较高,但总体上有下降的趋势。知识密集型制造业的辐射力相对较弱,而知识密集型服务业辐射能力相对较强,对经济的拉动明显,知识密集型产业结构演化正表现为从知识密集型制造业为主导趋向知识密集型服务业为主导的变动过程中。本文可能的创新点在于:一是着重研究上海知识密集型产业演化机制,对其内在演化机制进行理论分析,使用数学模型对演化过程进行大规模的微观模拟与论证,运用大量的知识密集型企业样本数据来验证知识密集型产业演化过程,并进行了系统性实证研究。二是在“微观、微-中观、中观”研究框架下,多角度综合立体地研究知识密集型产业演化过程中企业规模、企业数量、产业绩效、产业结构的变化规律。三是用仿真分析、旋模型与实证研究相结合的方法回答四个关键问题:创新地将智能体仿真模型模拟企业大规模的创新和合作行为,创新地将螺旋理论模型的应用于区位、组织类型、垂直关联与合作伙伴相互间的关系来研究知识密集型产业演化绩效变化规律,结合多种统计方法来研究知识密集型产业结构演变规律。其中,智能仿真模型包括Matlab智能体仿真和Netlogo智能体仿真,螺旋模型包括三螺旋和四螺旋模型,实证分析中采用了数理统计、DEA方法、主成分分析等方法。总体上,对知识密集产业的相关的理论研究进行了拓展,而在实证研究方面开辟了新的路径。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the advent of knowledge economy,knowledge intensive industry is promoting the whole world economic development and the influence of knowledge intensive industry is increasingly prominent.This article research based on literature with Shanghai as one of China’s most important economic cities,puts forward key questions about knowledge intensive industry from micro,micro-medium,medium view.In the microview,the first and second question is about how do the knowledge intensive enterprise scale and quantity change in the rules with innovation and cooperation activities;In the micro-mediumview,the third question is about how do organization,partners,vertical relationship have the mixed effect on evlution;In the medium view,the fourth question is about how do the evolution of knowledge intensive industrial structure change.In order to answer above questions,we use tools such as multi-agent model,three spiral model and empirical study to further answer related problems of knowledge intensive industry evolution: in the micro perspective,matlab parallel computing based on the multi-agent simulation is to describe intensive enterprises frequent innovation and cooperative activities.Based on innovations,intensive industrialenterprises constantly update product or service to adapt to the market by leading to the change of enterprises’ scale.At the same time,the of knowledge space model is established for knowledge intensive enterprise in the Netlogo platform.By means of knowledge exchange,the number of enterprises experienced copy(imitation),variation,selection.In the micro-medium perspective,nearly 100000 Shanghai techical enterprises’ samples in 7 years based on the spiral model,we has the research on location,organization type,vertical spatial association and partner interaction to show industry performance difference of knowledge intensive evolution.In the medium perspective,we use mathematical statistics,DEA method,principal component analysis,location entropy analysis to discuss the knowledge intensive manufacturing industry and knowledge intensive service industry by using the 2000-2015 “Shanghai Statistical Yearbook” data.The regression model is used to exploit the relationship to intensive manufacturing industry and knowledge intensive service.We provide conclusions as follows:(1)In the perspective of microscopic level,it finds that the evolution of the knowledge intensive enterprise scale and number is adynamic process.The enterprise’s choice of innovation mode is also a dynamic decision process.There are three kinds of enterprise scale different results: the younger enterprises exceed the older enterprises;the big enterprises become stronger and the small enterprises become weaker;the old and young enterprises work in cooperation in increasing scale.It also concludes that different ways of cooperation affects the number of companies on the market: conservative cooperation mechanism leads to decline;positive cooperation mechanism leads to a decline in the number of enterprises.(2)In the perspective of micro-medium level,it reveals that organization type has the biggest influence,partners also have a promoting effect,vertical relationship has the minimum effect.In recent years,the adjustment direction and the effect is still pending.(3)In the perspective of medium level,it shows that the knowledge intensive manufacturing industry has three sub-stages: steady growth,rapid growth,slow growth.Subdivision industry output value and profit is not in coordination,general equipment manufacturing industry the highest knowledge intensive.The analysis of the knowledge intensive service industry shows three sub-stages: the decline stage,the stable stagnation stage and the steady growth stage.The added value of knowledge intensive services and other service industry is a positive correlation,have the negative correlation relationship with the second industry,finance industry has the maximum economic contribution and more concentrated and it has decreasing trend.The regression method is used for the interaction evolutionary between knowledge intensive manufacturing and knowledge-intensive services.It shows that knowledge intensive manufacturing is weaker influence,while knowledge intensive service is stronger influence in the economy.The knowledge intensive service is becoming the main role in the third industry.The possible innovation of this paper lies in: Firstly,the emphasis on the study of Shanghai knowledge intensive industry evolution,explore the evolution with mathematical models based on samples.Secondly,in the perspective of micro,micro-medium and medium,we focus on the evolution of enterprise scale,the number of enterprises,the performance of industrial structure,industrial structure changes.Thirdly,simulation,spiral model and empirical research is to answer key questions: multi-agents simulate innovation and cooperation behavior,the helix theory model is applied to the location,organization,vertical relationship with partners to study the evolution of performance,a variety of statistical methods showsknowledge intensive industrial structure evolution.Also,the simulation model including Matlab simulation and Netlogo simulation,spiral model including three spiral and four spiral model,statistical methods including mathematical statistics,DEA method and so on.It extends the relevant theoretical research on knowledge intensive industry and provides the new ways for empirical research.更多还原