【作者】 郭磊；

【导师】 张巍；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2018， 博士

【摘要】 城市是人类文明的历史见证,使人类的文化遗产得以世代相传,展现了人类的非凡成就。据预测到2030年,全球近三分之二的人口将生活在城市,中国也位列其中。改革开放以来,中国在城镇化建设方面取得了举世瞩目的成就。截止至2017年底,我国城镇化率从1978年17.92%上升至58.52%,城镇常住人口也由1978年1.7亿人激增到8.1亿人。大量人口从农村转移至城市,也给我国城镇化的建设提出了更大的挑战与难度。在国家颁布的《国家新型城镇化规划(2014-2020年)》中指出,未来我国需要建立市场配置和政府保障相结合的住房制度,推动形成总量基本平衡、结构基本合理、房价与消费能力基本适应的住房供需格局,从而有效保障城镇常住人口的合理住房需求。同时,习近平主席在党的第十九次全国代表大会中强调:“我国未来要坚持房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的,更要通过建立多主体供给、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度,让全体人民住有所居”。因此,如何健全我国城镇住房制度,保障房地产价格保持平稳发展,是我国新型城镇化建设的一个重点与难点。但在实际生活中,随着城镇化进程的加快,全国各地区房地产价格也增涨迅速且不同区域之间商品房价格差异明显。例如,在城镇化率大多超过60%的东部地区,商品房均价在35000元/㎡以上,而在城镇化率大多低于50%的中西部地区,商品房均价则在4000元/㎡左右。因此,在新型城镇化背景下,研究导致我国不同地区城镇化率与商品房价格之间不平衡现象产生的原因,从而促进房地产价格平稳发展显得尤为重要。基于此,本文选择商品房平均销售价格波动为研究对象,以新型城镇化建设为研究背景,深入分析我国不同省份地区之间房价差异产生的诱因,从而为保障我国新型城镇化与房地产业共同健康发展提供相关理论与实践依据,主要包括了以下研究内容:首先以可持续发展理论、市场供求理论等理论方法为基础,在对相关理论文献进行梳理与总结的基础上,界定新型城镇化建设的内涵,并从供给与需求两个维度对房地产价格波动形成的原理进行归纳总结。其次,根据房地产价格波动原理的分析结果,从经济城镇化、人口城镇化、空间城镇化和社会生活城镇化四个视角,对新型城镇化建设诱导商品房价格波动的作用关系进行理论分析。在此基础上,归纳总结新型城镇化建设诱导商品房价格波动的影响因素,通过综合运用DEMATEL与专家打分等方法,对新型城镇化建设诱导商品房价格波动的关键要素进行识别。最后,根据关键要素的分析结果,通过对相关研究数据进行收集与整理,综合运用多元回归、面板数据等研究方法,从经济、人口、空间和基础设施四个视角,对我国处于不同城镇化水平的地区其商品房价格波动的关键要素进行实证分析,并根据分析结果,对我国新型城镇化进程中商品房价格平稳波动的调控提出相关政策建议。本文针对商品房价格波动这一核心问题,深入剖析新型城镇化建设诱导商品房价格波动的作用关系,识别诱导商品房价格波动的关键影响要素,发现我国不同城镇化水平地区其商品房价格波动影响因素的差异。本文成果为丰富相关领域的理论研究具有一定贡献,同时对政府调控我国房地产市场具有参考意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 City is a historical witnesses of human civilization.It has enabled humanity’s cultural heritage to be handed down from generation to generation,demonstrating the extraordinary achievements of mankind.It is predicted that nearly two-thirds of population in the world will live in cities by 2030 and China will also be among them.Since the reform and opening up,China has made remarkable achievements in urbanization.By the end of 2017,the urbanization rate in China has increased from 17.92% in 1978 to 58.52%,and the urban resident population has also surged from 170 million in 1978 to 810 million.The large number of people moving from rural areas to cities has also brought greater challenges and difficulties to the construction of urbanization in China.The “ National New Urbanization Planning(2014-2020)” published by the Chinese government pointed out that in the future,China needs to establish a housing system combining market allocation and government guarantee,promote the formation of a basic balance of total volume,and the basic pattern of housing supply and demand that has reasonable structures and housing prices and spending power,so as to effectively protect the reasonable housing needs for the urban residents.At the same time,Chairman Xi Jinping emphasized at the 19 th National Congress of the party:“In the future,our country must insist that the house is used for livelihood,not for speculation.Besides,we should allow all people to benefit from establishing housing system that features multi-subject supply,multi-channel guarantee and rent-purchase encouragement”.Therefore,how to improve China’s urban housing system and ensure the stable development of real estate price is a key and difficult point in China’s new urbanization construction.However,with the acceleration of the urbanization,real estate prices in various regions of the country have also increased rapidly and there has been a significant difference in the prices of real estate between different regions.For example,in the eastern region where the urbanization rate is mostly over 60%,the average price of commercial housing is above 35,000 yuan /㎡,while in the central and western regions where the urbanization rate is mostly below 50%,the average price of commodity housing is about 4,000 yuan /㎡.Therefore,under the background of new-type urbanization,it is particularly important to explore the causes of the imbalance between the urbanization rate and the price of commercial housing in different regions of China,so as to promote the stable development of real estate price.Based on this,this paper selects the average sale price fluctuation of commercial housing as the research object,takes the new urbanization construction as the research background,and deeply analyzes the incentives for the price difference between different provinces and regions in China,in order to provide relevant theoretical and practical foundation for ensuring the healthy development in Chinese new urbanization and real estate industry,mainly including the following research contents:Firstly,The connotation of new urbanization is defined through summarizing and combing the relevant theoretical literature,based on the theories of sustainable development as well as market supply and demand,and summarizing the principles of real estate price fluctuation in the two dimensions of supply and demand.Then,this paper theoretically analyzes the role of new urbanization construction in inducing price fluctuations in commercial housing from the four aspects of economic urbanization,population urbanization,spatial urbanization and social life urbanization,according to the principle of real estate price fluctuations in analytical results.On this basis,the influencing factors of commercial housing price fluctuations induced by new-type urbanization construction are summed up,and the key elements of commercial housing price fluctuations induced by new urbanization construction are identified through the comprehensive application of DEMATEL and experts scoring.Finally,according to the analysis results of the key elements,This paper empirically analyzes the key elements of price fluctuations in commercial housing in different urbanization areas in China from four perspectives: economy,population,space,and infrastructure,through collecting and arranging relevant research data,using comprehensive multiple regression,panel Data and other research methods.Then,based on the analysis results,relevant policy proposals are put forward for the regulation of stable fluctuations in commercial housing prices in the process of new urbanization in China.This paper focuses on the core issue of commodity house price fluctuations,analyzes the relationship between price fluctuations of induced commercial housing in the new urbanization construction,identifies the key influencing factors in inducing price fluctuations of commercial housing,and finds the differences in the factors affecting the price fluctuations of commercial housing in different levels of urbanization in China.The research results have contributed to the enrichment of theoretical research in related fields,and at the same time it has certain reference value for the government to regulate and control Chinese real estate market.更多还原