【作者】 宋琳；

【导师】 卢进勇；

【作者基本信息】 对外经济贸易大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2018， 博士

【摘要】 中国经济从上世纪八十年代改革开放起逐渐进入了高速发展的新时期。在充足的市场空间、便利的地理贸易条件、廉价的物质与人力生产成本优势等多重因素作用下,实现了经济长期保持高速增长的领先优势。然而,进入新世纪以来,国际经济环境已经发生了巨大的变化,尤其是2008年从美国逐渐蔓延至全球范围的金融危机,彻底改变了世界各国经济发展的轨迹。对于中国而言,虽然在国家宏观政策的支持下,最大限度的降低了金融危机对国内经济的影响,但长期以来经济运行中存在的问题也充分地暴露出来。这些问题集中在过度依赖劳动力资源优势,使得以工业行业为主的供给侧经济长期处于全球产业链中低端,导致国内经济增长乏力,国际竞争优势减弱。在中国经济转型调整的关键时期,党和国家领导人开创性的提出了“供给侧产业结构性改革”的经济发展战略,为中国经济结构转型调整指明了方向。目前中国的供给侧结构问题主要是指以工业行业为代表的一系列供给端行业企业存在着库存过高、产能过剩、技术落后等多种弊端。如何能够有效的改变供给侧行业整体发展水平,在学术界存在着多种不同的观点,但是对于对外投资对供给侧结构性改革的积极效果却达成了较为一致的意见。这方面的研究目前大多集中在理论层面,尚未在实证领域给予充分的证明。因此,本文选择供给侧结构改革的代表性行业即工业作为研究对象,通过理论分析与实证研究相结合的方法,全面分析对外直接投资对工业产业结构调整的影响与作用,同时分析了中国不同地域差异环境下影响作用的区别,并提出相应的政策建议,力求得出对工业产业结构优化升级有价值的结论。本文的研究内容主要包括以下五个方面:第一,通过理论研究逐步分析对外直接投资对产业结构的影响与作用;第二,对比了国内外供给经济理论的共同点与差异;第三,通过实证研究证明了对外直接投资对中国供给侧工业产业结构具有明显的积极作用;第四,通过实证研究得到结论,中国不同经济发展水平地区对外直接投资行为对产业结构的影响效果存在差异;第五,通过案例分析证明理论与实证研究结果的合理性。本文结构上共分为七个章节:第一章:引言。简要介绍了本文的研究背景、研究的理论意义及现实意义。第二章:文献综述。详细描述了对外直接投资理论的发展现状,以及国内外关于OFDI对母国产业结构影响的研究成果。第三章:中国工业对外直接投资现状及发展路径。从工业行业对外直接投资规模、对外投资吸引力、对外直接投资方式、投资区位特征等方面分析了中国工业行业对外直接投资现状,并分析了目前存在的问题。第四章:对外直接投资与供给侧改革关系的理论分析。首先,分析了中国供给侧结构性改革的背景及理论内涵,同时通过分析西方供给经济理论,探索东西方供给侧理论的区别和联系,进而将对外直接投资理论与供给经济理论相结合,分析对外直接投资对产业结构的影响作用。第五章:对外直接投资与工业产业结构关系的模型建立及实证分析。建立工业产业结构评价指标体系,利用全国各省份面板数据进行实证分析,并针对不同经济发展水平的地区进行单独分析,得出对外直接投资对工业产业结构的量化影响效果。第六章:对外直接投资推动供给侧产业改革案例分析。选取工业行业对外直接投资特点突出的鞍钢集团、洛钼集团、美的集团分别分析它们对外直接投资的方式与效果。第七章:主要结论、政策建议和展望。总结论文的主要结论,并从投资政策、产业政策、人才管理等方面提出政策建议,同时还提出了本文的研究展望。通过以上的研究,得出如下结论:第一、供给侧结构性改革是中国经济发展的经济工作主线。中国供给侧结构性改革是建立在充分的理论基础和实践经验基础上形成的有利于中国经济发展的战略决策,其内涵与西方供给经济理论有一定的联系,可以从西方供给经济发展轨迹中得到必要的经验。第二、对外直接投资能够有效推动供给侧结构性改革。通过文献研究、理论分析、实证分析与案例分析,可以得出结论,在中国工业视角下,对外直接投资行为可以在实质上对工业产业结构调整升级起到积极的促进作用,从而有效推动中国供给侧结构性改革。第三、由于中国不同省份地区经济发展水平存在很大差距,导致工业行业视角下,不同地区工业产业结构发展水平与对外直接投资规模都存在差距,同时受到对外贸易环境的影响,使得不同地区体现的提升产业结构水平的决定因素也不同。东部经济发达地区由于工业发展较快,工业企业对外投资行为起步相对较早,同时具备资源优势与投资能力优势,因此对外直接投资对东部地区工业产业结构发展水平影响较为明显。而西部经济欠发达地区,由于工业水平落后,对外投资规模也较少,因此提升西部地区工业产业结构水平的有效措施并不是对外直接投资。对西部地区而言,应首先关注影响工业发展最为核心的地理位置因素与技术发展水平因素,优先改善西部地区工业企业的对外贸易条件,这样才能有效提升产业结构水平。对于东北地区而言,由于东北老工业区具有长久的工业发展历史,工业产业生命周期特点也体现的最为明显。老旧的东北重工业企业已经明显处于产业发展的边际状态,符合国内外认同的边际产业发展特征,适合利用对外投资这一有效手段将部分工业企业尽快转移至更具比较优势的东道国,寻求新的发展空间,提升资源的有效利用,从而改善国内的工业产业结构水平。对于中国中部地区,由于工业发展水平较为平均,且具备一定的贸易条件,但同时又不具备对外投资的资本优势,因此工业企业需要尽快从企业内部入手,通过采取加大研发力度、提升企业管理经营能力等手段,先练好内功,以此提升产业结构水平。在结论的基础上,本文提出了六个方面的政策建议:第一、进一步推进政策层面的支持力度。应在现有的基础上充分利用政策手段对企业投资行为加以引导和激励;第二、加强产业间及产业内联动。目前除大型国有企业外,中国广大的工业企业,尤其是民营制造企业都存在着资金少、规模小、风险承受能力弱的困难,因此银行业、保险业、法律服务业等应积极配合展开联动,在工业产业内部也要加强企业间的沟通和协调;第三、加快境外产业园区建设。政府层面应主动为工业企业在“一带一路”重点国家、在具有先进生产技术的工业强国以及具有优质工业资产的发达国家和地区协商建立集中的产业园区与产业基地;第四、加强国际投资领域人才培养。企业层面应尽早着手设立专门的对外投资部门,组建优秀的投资人才队伍,避免管理者盲目对外投资,提高投资质量;第五、树立优秀的国内自主品牌。在国内应该首先为工业企业创造良好的发展空间,为国内优秀的工业企业提供专利技术、品牌价值的有效保障,避免侵权事件的发生,使现有的优质工业品牌尽快成长为国际知名品牌;第六、构建中国企业主导的跨境产业链,助力供给侧改革。中国作为参与全球价值链的新生力量,首要目标是尽快提升自身在全球价值链中的地位,同时通过“供给侧结构性改革”和对外投资实现产业结构升级,尽快在不同领域构建由中国企业主导的跨境产业链。本文在学术界已有的理论研究基础上,兼顾了刘淑茹(2011)建立的中国经济产业结构综合评价指标体系的全面性优势,以及李廉水(2014)建立的制造业产业评价指标体系的简明性和新型化内涵优势,创造性的建立了包含四个维度、12个影响因素的工业产业结构评价指标体系。并且利用全国各省、自治区、直辖市2004年至2015年的面板数据进行了实证研究,发现了对外直接投资对产业结构影响的差异化特征,得出了较为科学的结论。由于统计数据来源限制,本文无法对供给侧产能过剩、库存过剩等问题突出的钢铁、煤炭等重点行业进行专门的实证分析,而仅仅从工业总体产业结构水平的角度进行研究,使得重点行业借鉴作用受到影响。同时,受到研究时间限制,本文仅对西方发达国家供给经济理论进行了粗略分析,没有充分收集整理发达国家供给经济统计数据,未能进行实证对比研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s economy has entered a new period of rapid development since the reform and opening up in the 80 s.The economy has achieved the leading advantage of maintaining high speed growth for a long time,under the influences of multiple factors,such as sufficient market space,convenient geographical and trade conditions,cheap material and the cost advantage of manpower for production.However,since the new century,great changes have taken place in the international economic environment.Especially the financial crisis that gradually spread from the United States to the rest of the world in 2008,which has completely changed the track of the economic development of all countries in the world.Though the impact of the financial crisis has greatly reduced by China adopting a series of macro policies,the problems that have existed for a long time in the economic operation have been fully exposed.These problems mostly derive from the excessive reliance on the advantages of labor resources,which has made the supply side economy dominated by industrial sector lie in the low end of the global industrial chain for a long time.This has weakened the domestic economic growth and international competitive advantages.In this critical period of China’s economic transformation and adjustment,the party and state leaders have pioneered the economic development strategy of "supply side industrial structural reform",which has pointed out the direction for China’s economic structural transformation and adjustment.At present,the problem of supply side structure of China mainly refers to those disadvantages embraced by a series of supply side enterprises,such as overstock,overcapacity,technology gap and so on.There are many different views in the academic circle about how to effectively change the overall development level of the supply side industry,but the positive effect of the foreign direct investment on the supply side structure reform has reached a more consistent opinion.Most researches in this field are concentrated on the theoretical level rather than providing persuasive empirical evidences.Therefore,this paper takes the representative industry of reform of the supply side,which is industrial sector,as the research objects.By combining theoretical analysis and empirical research,this paper then analyzes the effects of FDI on industrial structure adjustment comprehensively and the differences among different regions in China concerning the effects.Then this paper put forward corresponding policy suggestions in order to provide useful conclusions about the industrial structure optimization and upgrading.The research contents of this paper include the following five parts.First,this paper analyzes the impact of foreign direct investment on the industrial structure stepwise through theoretical research.Second,it compares the similarities and differences between domestic and foreign supply economics theories.Third,through empirical research,it proves that FDI has a positive effect on China’s supply side industrial structure.Fourth,it is concluded from empirical research that the effect of FDI on industrial structure in regions with different levels of economic development in China are different.Fifth,it proves the accuracy of theoretical and empiricalfindings through case studies.This article is divided into seven chapters.Chapter one is introduction.This chapter briefly introduces the research background,the theoretical and practical significance of the study.The second chapter is literature review.It describes the development status of the theory of outward direct investment in detail,and the domestic and foreign research results of OFDI’s influence on the industrial structure of home country.The third chapter demonstrates the current situation and development path of China’s industrial outward foreign direct investment.This chapter analyzes the present situation and existing problems of OFDI in China’s industrial industry from several aspects,such as the scale of foreign direct investment,the attractiveness towards foreign investment,the method of OFDI and characteristics of foreign investment location choices,etc.The fourth chapter presents the theoretical analysis of the relationship between OFDI and supply side reform.It firstly analyzes the background and theoretical connotation of supply side reform of China.Then it explores the differences and similarities between the domestic and foreign supply side economic theories.Finally,it analyzes the impact of OFDI on industrial structure by combining OFDI theories and supply side economic theories.The fifth chapter contains the model establishment and empirical analysis of the relationship between OFDI and industrial structure.This chapter builds up an evaluation index system of industrial structure,and conducts empirical analysis based on this by using provincial panel data of China.Then,separate analyses are made by dividing the regions by different economic development levels,and the effect of the quantitative influence of OFDI on industrial structure is obtained.The sixth chapter is the case study of foreign direct investment promoting the supply side industry reform.This chapter chooses to analyze typical cases that conduct OFDI with outstanding characteristics,including the Ansteel Group,the China Molybdenum Company Ltd and the Midea Group.The seventh chapter includes main conclusions,policy recommendations and prospects.This chapter summarizes the main conclusions of the paper,and put forward policy recommendations from the aspects of investment policy,industrial policy,talent management and so on.At the same time,it also puts forward the research prospects of this paper.Through the above research,the following conclusions are drawn.First,the structural reform of supply side is the main economic work in China’s economic development.The structural reform of China’s supply side is a strategic decision that will benefit the development of China’s economy which is based on sufficient theoretical basis and practical experience.The connotation of China’s supply side is related to the western supply economy theory,and it can obtain necessary experiences from the western supply of economic development.Second,foreign direct investment can effectively promote structural reforms on the supply side.Through literature research,theoretical analysis,empirical analysis and case analysis,we can draw a conclusion that in the perspective of Chinese industry,foreign direct investment canplay a positive role in promoting industrial structure adjustment and upgrading,thus effectively promoting the reform of China’s supply side structure.Third,because of the large gap between the economic development level of different provinces and regions in China,the industrial structure development level of and the scale of foreign direct investment different regions display marked differences.At the same time,the determinants of industrial structure upgrading are different due to the effects of the foreign trade environment.The impact of OFDI on industrial structure is more obvious in eastern regions because of the rapid development of industry,relatively early activities of OFDI,resource advantages and investment ability.In the underdeveloped western regions of China,the OFDI fail to be an effective way to upgrade the industrial structure due to the underdeveloped industrial level and limited scale of OFDI.For the western region,we should pay more attention to the factors that affect the industrial development and the level of technology development,and improve the foreign trade conditions of industrial enterprises in order to improve the industrial structure.For the northeast region,t he characteristics of the industrial life cycle are most obvious because the northeast old industrial area has a long history of industrial development.The old northeast heavy industry enterprises have obviously been in the marginal state of industrial development,which conforms to the characteristics of the development of marginal industries identified at home and abroad.It is suitable to use foreign investment as an effective means to transfer some industrial enterprises to a more advantageous host country as soon as possible,so as to seek new development space,to improve the effective utilization of resources and to improve the domestic industrial structure level.For the central part of China,the industrial enterprises need to start from the internal enterprise as soon as possible through the measures of increasing R&D and improving the management ability of the enterprises in order to improve the industrial structure level.It is because of the average industrial development level and certain trade conditions,but at the same time,it does not have the capital advantage of foreign investment.This paper puts forward six policy proposals based on the conclusions.First,we should further promote policy support.We should make full use of policy measures to guide and encourage investment behavior on the basis of existing ones.Second,strengthen inter industry and intra industry linkage.At present,except large state-owned enterprises,vast numbers of industrial enterprises in China,especially the private manufacturing enterprises,endure the difficulties of limited capital,small scale and weak risk bearing capacity.Therefore,the banking,insurance,legal services should actively cooperate with each other and strengthen their communication and coordination with the enterprises in the industrial industry.Third,accelerate the construction of overseas industrial parks.The government should take the initiative to negotiate the establishment of centralized industrial parks and industrial base for manufacturing enterprises in the "The Belt and Road" key countries,that with advanced production technology,industrial power and high quality industrial assets in developed countries and regions.Fourth,strengthen the training of talents in the field of international investment.The enterprise level should set up a special foreigninvestment department as soon as possible,build up an excellent team of investment talents,in order to avoid the blind foreign investment and improve the quality of investment.Fifth,build excellent domestic brand.We should first create a good space of development for industrial enterprises,and provide effective protection against their patent technology,brand value,avoid the happening of violations,in order to make existing high quality industrial brand become international well-known brand as soon as possible.Sixth,build a cross border industrial chain led by Chinese enterprises to promote supply side reform.As a new force to participate in the global value chain,China’s primary goal is to improve its position in the global value chain as soon as possible,then to upgrade the industrial structure through the "structural reform of supply side" and foreign investment,and to build a cross border industrial chain led by Chinese enterprises in different fields.On the basis of academic research,this paper takes into account the comprehensive advantages of the comprehensive evaluation index system of China’s economic industrial structure established by Liu Shuru(2011),as well as the simplicity and new connotation advantages of the evaluation index system of manufacturing industry established by Li Lian Shui(2014),creatively establish an evaluation index system of industrial structure contains four dimensions and 12 factors.By using the panel data of all the provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government from 2004 to 2015,the empirical study was carried out,and the different characteristics of the impact of FDI on industrial structure were found,and a more scientific conclusion was drawn.Due to the limitation of statistical data sources,this paper is unable to carry out a special empirical analysis on the key industries,such as iron and steel and coal,which have problems on the supply side overcapacity,overstock and so on.It can only conduct the research from the perspective of overall industrial structure level which has limited the use for reference for these key industries.At the same time,by the time limit of research,this article only makes a rough analysis of the western developed countries’ supply of economic theory,and does not fully collect and collate the economic statistics from the developed countries,therefore fail to make comparative studies from the empirical perspectives.更多还原