【作者】 丁涛；

【导师】 张岩； 宁亚东；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 能源与环境工程， 2018， 博士

【摘要】 全球气候变暖已经成为人类社会生存和发展的主要威胁,控制和减少二氧化碳等温室气体排放已经成为世界各国的普遍共识。改革开放以来,尤其是加入世界贸易组织以后,受益于经济全球化,我国经济取得了举世瞩目的快速发展。然而,化石能源的大量消耗以及贸易和资本的频繁流动导致我国的碳排放和碳转移问题日趋严峻。厘清我国碳排放和碳转移的现状及特征,找出影响碳排放和碳转移的影响因素,对我国实现碳减排具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文着眼于开放经济下的国内与国外生产、国内与国外需求,系统全面地估算了我国二氧化碳排放量,深入分析了最终需求、国际贸易和国际投资与碳排放之间的作用机制,探究了开放经济下影响我国碳排放及碳转移的驱动因素,明确了开放经济下我国碳排放及碳转移的主要特征。本文以国内碳排放、双边贸易隐含碳和对外直接投资碳转移为主要研究内容,构建了开放经济下我国碳排放及碳转移的研究框架,并以此进行相关特征分析和影响因素研究,研究区间为2000～2014年。本文首先基于“生产者负责”原则从排放源视角估算了化石燃料燃烧、工业生产过程和废弃物处理起源的碳排放量;利用本文构建的进口非竞争型投入产出表,基于“消费者负责”原则从最终需求视角计算了最终消费、资本形成和出口引起的碳排放量;利用双边贸易隐含碳估算模型计算了我国同219个国家/地区由出口贸易和进口贸易分别引起的隐含碳排放量;基于投入产出分析方法构建了对外直接投资碳转移估算模型,量化计算了我国与180个东道国的对外直接投资引起的碳排放转移。在此基础上,本文详细分析了碳排放和碳转移的产业分布特征;根据双边贸易净隐含碳排放量,探讨了国际贸易对我国碳排放的影响;引入“无贸易/投资情景”假设,探究了我国双边贸易和对外直接投资对全球碳排放的影响。最后,本文通过加权平均结构分解模型,分别对最终需求引起的碳排放、双边贸易净隐含碳排放和对外直接投资碳转移的主要影响因素进行了研究。通过研究发现:考察后期,我国二氧化碳排放量增长趋势逐渐减缓;双边贸易使得我国为其他国家/地区承担了大量碳排放,快速增长的对外直接投资引起的碳转移也不容忽视;我国双边贸易对全球碳排放的影响程度非常小,而且通过对外直接投资可以实现全球碳减排;影响因素中,能源强度因素显著减少了我国最终需求引起的碳排放量,能源结构因素也起到了一定的减排作用;但我国能源强度、能源结构和经济结构与发达国家之间仍存在差距,这些因素又是导致我国双边贸易净隐含碳排放量增加的主要因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global warming has ever become a major threat to the survival and development of human society.Monitoring and reducing greenhouse gas emissions,such as carbon dioxide,has become a universal consensus around the world.Benefiting from the economic globalization,China’s economy has made remarkably rapid development since the reform and opening up,especially after joining the World Trade Organization.The issue of China’s carbon emissions is becoming increasingly serious owing to the large consumption of coal-based fossil energy and the large amount of carbon transfer caused by trade and capital flows.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to clarify the current situation and characteristics of China’s carbon emissions and carbon transfer and find out the driving factors of carbon emissions and carbon transfer.Focusing on domestic and foreign production,domestic and foreign demand in an open economy,to comprehensively estimate China’s carbon emissions,in-depth analyze the mechanism of final demands,international trade and international investment,and in detail explore the driving factors of carbon emissions and carbon transfer in China,are the necessary prerequisites for clarifying the current situation and characteristics of China’s carbon emissions and carbon transfer and also an important issue to realize the transition to a low-carbon economy in China.Focusing on China’s domestic carbon emissions,carbon emissions embodied in China’s bilateral trade and carbon transfer caused by China’s outward foreign direct investment,their characteristics and driving factors were analyzed on the basis of the framework of carbon emissions and carbon transfer in an open economy constructed in this paper.Based on the principle of producer responsibility,China’s carbon emissions from energy activities,industrial processes and waste treatments were comprehensively estimated from the perspective of emission sources.And then,based on the principle of consumer responsibility,China’s carbon emissions caused by final consumption,capital formation and export were also estimated with the input-output table using the non-competitive imports assumption established in this paper.Based on the model of emissions embodied in bilateral trade,this paper estimated carbon emissions embodied in China’s bilateral trade with 219 countries/regions over the period of 2000-2014.In addition,carbon transfer caused by China’s outward foreign direct investment to 180 host countries was quantitatively calculated utilizing the input-output model.On the basis of detailed and accurate volume of China’s carbon emissions and carbon transfer,industrial distribution characteristics of China’s carbon emissions and carbon transfer were analyzed.The influence of international trade on China’s carbon emissions was discussed according to the results of net carbon emissions embodied in bilateral trade.Contributions of China’s bilateral trade and outward foreign direct investment to global carbon emissions were analyzed under the assumption of non-trade/investment scenario.Finally,the driving factors of carbon emissions caused by final demands,net carbon emissions embodied in bilateral trade and carbon transfer caused by outward foreign direct investment were studied by the weighted structural decomposition method.The results of estimation and analysis indicate that:the growth trend of China’s carbon emissions gradually slowed down in the later period of investigation.The bilateral trade made China produce a large amount of carbon emissions for other regions,and the fast-growing carbon transfer caused by outward foreign direct investment should not be ignored.China’s bilateral trade increased global carbon emissions by an extremely low degree,and China’s outward foreign direct investment contributed to global carbon emission reduction.The energy intensity factor,as well as the energy structure factor,dramatically reduce carbon emissions caused by China’s final demand.However,these two factors and the economic structure factor made carbon emissions embodied in China’s exports higher than those embodied in China’s imports in different degrees due to the gaps of energy intensity,energy structure and economic structure between China and developed countries.更多还原