【作者】 吴丰光；

【导师】 林木西；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 国民经济学， 2018， 博士

【摘要】 2018年是中国改革开放40周年。经过40年的快速发展,中国的经济实力和综合国力有了较大提升。作为大国崛起的内在要求和必然结果,人民币国际化也逐步被提上日程。从20世纪90年代人民币在民间边境贸易中使用,到2009年中国政府试点跨境贸易人民币结算正式启动人民币国际化,再到2016年10月1日人民币纳入SDR货币篮子,人民币国际化进程扎实推进,步步为营。人民币国际化的积极进展应该说是主观和客观因素共同推动的结果。从主观上讲,作为世界第二大经济体和第一大贸易国,中国在国际货币体系中的话语权需要与中国对世界经济的影响力和贡献度相匹配。同时,大量使用美元作为我国国际贸易的计价和结算货币使我国的宏观经济调控常常受制于美国的经济政策影响,而且以美元计价的储备资产的不断积累也使我国外汇储备资产的安全无法得到保障。因此,中国需要逐步推进和实现人民币国际化,这关系到中国的长远利益。从客观上讲,20世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系瓦解后,国际货币体系进入到牙买加体系。然而,从布雷顿森林体系到牙买加体系,实际上是由“美元—黄金本位制”过渡到“美元本位制”,国际货币体系的固有缺陷依然存在。1997年亚洲金融危机和2008年美国次贷危机就是最有力的例证。美国以本国利益为先,制定和调整货币政策,造成美元汇率的大幅波动,使世界各国特别是新兴市场经济体受到了沉重的打击。美国之外的发达经济体和新兴市场经济体都在思考变革现有的过度依赖美元的国际货币体系。国际货币体系多元化已成为很多国家的共同呼声。人民币国际化在理论和实践上都具有重大意义。首先,传统国际货币理论都是在西方货币经济学的理论框架内展开的,对于在位国际货币国际化的条件、影响因素、作用机制等的分析,特别是宏观层面的分析,本身就隐含着主权货币发行国制度同质性的假设。因而,在应用传统国际货币理论对人民币国际化进行分析时,一些解释变量对现状解释能力不强,从而造成了人民币国际化理论上的“缺陷”。其次,人民币国际化是新兴市场经济体货币国际化的一次突破性的实践。人民币国际化的成功将为国际货币体系多元化和其他新兴市场经济体货币国际化探索出有效的实现路径。正是由于上述几个方面的原因,国内外学者对人民币国际化的研究也不断升温,并取得了很多积极的成果。然而,作者认为现有人民币国际化研究存在以下两个方面的不足:一是从“问题——对策”角度研究的多,但从理论根源角度探究的少;二是套用西方学者理论模型进行实证分析的多,使用原创理论模型分析的少。本文首先对人民币国际化的概念进行了界定,对相关国际货币理论进行了梳理,然后从人民币国际化的理论原点再到现实逻辑,深入剖析人民币国际化的原理和作用机制。在此基础上,建立了人民币国际化影响因素计量模型和指标体系,并进行实证分析。此外,本文还通过对主要国际货币和人民币国际化进程的回顾,从国际货币体系演进历史的角度总结出主要国际货币对人民币国际化的启示。最后,本文在实证分析结论和历史事实推演的基础上,提出了进一步推进人民币国际化的政策建议。人民币国际化关系到中国在国际货币体系中的话语权和长远经济利益,推进人民币国际化是国家势在必行的一项重大战略。2017年《政府工作报告》提出要“坚持汇率市场化改革方向,保持人民币在全球货币体系中的稳定地位。”2017年7月全国金融工作会议又进一步明确要“稳步推进人民币国际化”。当前,世界政治经济格局正在发生深刻变化,以美国为代表的国际贸易保护主义和逆全球化趋势日益抬头,如何在复杂的国际环境中巩固和不断扩大人民币国际化业已取得的成果,沉着应对人民币国际化进程中的各种挑战和调整,我们需要在新兴市场经济体货币国际化的理论和实践上取得突破。希望本文能够对该问题的研究做出些许贡献。更多还原

【Abstract】 2018 is China’s reform and opening up 40 th anniversary.After 40 years of rapid development,China’s economic strength and comprehensive national strength have been greatly improved.As the inherent requirement and inevitable result of the rise of great powers,the internationalization of RMB has also been gradually put on the agenda.Since the use of RMB in the private border trade in 1990 s,by 2009,the Chinese government pilot cross-border trade RMB settlement formally started the RMB internationalization,and then the RMB into the SDR currency basket in October 1,2016,the process of internationalization of RMB was steadily advancing.The positive progress of RMB internationalization should be driven by subjective and objective factors.Subjectively,as the second largest economy and the largest trading country in the world,China’s discourse power in the international monetary system needs to be matched with the influence and contribution of China to the world economy.At the same time,a lot of use of US dollars as the valuation and settlement currency of China’s international trade makes the macroeconomic regulation and control of our country often affected by the economic policy of the United States,and the continuous accumulation of reserve assets based on the dollar denominated the security of our foreign exchange reserve assets can not be guaranteed.Therefore,China needs to push forward and realize RMB internationalization step by step,which is related to China’s long-term interests.Objectively speaking,after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1970 s,the international monetary system entered the Jamaica system.However,from the Bretton Woods system to the Jamaica system,it is actually a transition from the "dollar gold standard" to the "dollar standard",and the inherent defects of the international monetary system still exist.The Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 were the most powerful examples.The United States,with its own national interests,made and adjusted its monetary policy,resulting in a large fluctuation in the exchange rate of the United States dollar,which made the world,especially the emerging market economies,suffered a heavy blow.The developed economies and emerging market economies outside the United States are thinking about reforming the existing international monetary system which relies too much on the US dollar.The diversification of the international monetary system has become the common voice of many countries.RMB internationalization is of great significance both in theory and practice.First,the traditional international monetary theory is carried out in the theoretical framework of western monetary economics.The analysis of the conditions,influencing factors and mechanism of the international currency internationalization,especially the macro level analysis,implies the hypothesis of the homogeneity of the sovereign currency issuer.Therefore,when the traditional international monetary theory is applied to the analysis of the internationalization of RMB,some explanatory variables are not able to explain the current situation,which leads to the "defects" in the theory of RMB internationalization.Secondly,RMB internationalization is a breakthrough practice of currency internationalization in emerging market economies.The success of RMB internationalization will explore an effective way to realize the diversification of the international monetary system and other emerging market economies.Because of the above reasons,domestic and foreign scholars’ research on RMB internationalization has also been heated up,and many positive results have been achieved.However,the author believes that there are two shortcomings in the study of the current RMB Internationalization: one is from the perspective of "problems and Countermeasures",but less from the theoretical root;the two is to use the theoretical model of western scholars to carry out empirical analysis,and the use of original theoretical model is less.This paper first defines the concept of RMB internationalization,combs the related international monetary theory,and then from the origin of the theory of RMB internationalization to the realistic logic,in-depth analysis of the principle and mechanism of the RMB internationalization.On this basis,we set up the econometric model and index system of the influencing factors of RMB internationalization,and make an empirical analysis.In addition,through the review of the main international currency and the process of RMB internationalization,this paper summarizes the Enlightenment of the major international currency on the internationalization of RMB from the perspective of the evolution of the international monetary system.Finally,based on the empirical analysis and the deduction of historical facts,the paper puts forward policy recommendations for further promoting RMB internationalization.The internationalization of RMB is related to the discourse power and long-term economic interests of China in the international monetary system.It is a necessary strategy for the country to promote the internationalization of RMB.In 2017,the government work report put forward that we should adhere to the direction of exchange rate market reform and maintain the stable position of RMB in the global monetary system.In July 2017,the national financial work conference further clarified the need to "steadily push forward the internationalization of RMB".At present,the political and economic structure of the world is undergoing profound changes.The trend of international trade protectionism and reverse globalization,represented by the United States,is increasing.How to consolidate and continuously expand the achievements made in the internationalization of RMB in the complex international environment and to cope with the challenges and adjustments of the internationalization of the people’s currency,we need to be in the currency countries of the emerging market economies.The interdisciplinary theory and practice have made a breakthrough.I hope this article can make some contributions to the research of this problem.更多还原