【作者】 宁海龙；

【导师】 单仁亮；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学(北京) ， 工程管理， 2018， 博士

【摘要】 随着改革开放的不断深入,我国城镇化进程加快持续推进,掀起了一波又一波的建设浪潮。在建筑业快速发展的同时,也伴随着十分严峻的施工安全问题。过去20年,我国建筑业粗放式发展,安全事故频发,根据住房和城乡建设部资料,2000年至2010年十年间,我国每年平均发生建筑安全事故847起,死亡1090人。2010年我国房建和市政工程发生安全事故627起,导致772人死亡。2011年房建及市政工程安全事故共计589起,致死738人。另据国家安监局最新统计,2012年我国建筑业各类安全事故致死人数达到2437人,已经超过煤炭行业死亡人数,成为工矿商贸类危险的行业。2014年,北京清华附中一在建工地施工中发生脚手架坍塌,导致10人死亡;2015年,兰陵县某公司驻地院内一在建工地挡土墙发生坍塌,致使10人死亡,直接经济损失721.5万元;2016年,山东省烟台市龙口市金域蓝湾B区29号楼工程“7·15”事故(8人死亡);2017年,山东省聊城市高唐县尚品福城三期工程发生一起打桩机倾倒事故,造成4人死亡。近年来,建筑工程安全问题已经引起政府部门的高度关注,伴随着社会生活质量的提高,人们对安全的要求也越来越高。在工程建设过程中,工人越来越期望自己的人身安全能够得到保障。施工企业也能够意识到安全事故对企业的负面影响有多大。但是具体到工程项目上,涉及到具体的经济利益时往往存在侥幸心理,风险管理意识不够,为了节约建设成本,不愿意开展风险与损失的研究,不愿意研究如何调动项目各参与方安全管理的积极性,对项目的安全管理,大多依赖有经验的管理者凭经验实施安全管理,并没有根据建筑行业自身特点来制定符合项目实际的安全决策方案,尤其是对建筑工程项目参与方之间的安全博弈行为、安全投入资源分配、安全效益评估、施工现场安全状况评价等缺乏系统性研究。由此造成了巨大的资源浪费,给企业造成了无法估量的经济损失。在这样的背景下,本文针对建设工程项目安全管理进行了系统性研究,在对国内外现有文献研究的基础上,从经济学和管理学角度对建筑施工安全管理和施工现场安全状况评估方法进行了深入研究;利用博弈论探讨利益相关方安全决策行为之间的相互影响关系,找出达到比较合理的平衡方法;建立表达安全投入与安全效益之间关系的合理模型,建立合适的数学模型改进AHP模糊综合方法构建多层次安全管理评价模型。希望通过本文系统深入的研究能够为建设单位和施工单位的安全决策提供理论指导。本论文主要研究内容有建筑企业安全管理理论研究、工程参建方之间的博弈行为研究、建筑工程项目合理安全投入研究、安全投入与安全效益关联分析以及建筑施工现场安全状况综合评价五大部分。(1)安全经济学研究和安全管理学研究。首先对建筑企业安全管理进行概述性评价,对安全投入的影响因素和职业安全卫生费用模型进行分析;对系统安全工作基础进行深入研究,包括全寿命周期各阶段的系统安全工作、实施工程系统安全管理的要点等内容;接着对建筑业常用的安全经济评价方法进行解析,介绍了安全事故风险评估的步骤。(2)介绍博弈理论的基本概念,探讨采用博弈论对建筑工程主要参与方,包括建设单位、施工单位和监理单位任意两方或者三方之间进行安全管理分析的可行性。在建设单位与施工单位的安全博弈中,求解在一定假设条件下博弈均衡时建设单位检查的概率和施工单位安全投入的概率;并根据博弈结果,从建设单位角度进行制度设计,提出提高施工单位安全投入的概率。从施工单位和监理单位的阶段博弈获得施工单位和监理单位安全投入和安全监管与其影响因素的关系,引入贴现因子后进一步进行重复博弈分析,并证明冷酷战略是一个子博弈精炼纳什均衡;三方博弈中考虑监理单位与施工单位的寻租可能以及建设单位对寻租监督的有效性问题,列出三方的支付函数,根据博弈均衡分析各参数对博弈结果的影响关系。(3)剖析建筑企业安全投入的构成和来源,整理并完善建设工程安全事故直接损失和间接损失计量的方法,构造了多层次安全投入和安全效益之间的模型关系,利用模型学习历史参数,以北京住总第六开发建设有限公司为实例,进行定量计算分析,获得使得安全事故损失最小的各个安全投入分项的安全投入率。(4)建设工程安全投入与安全效益分析,首先对建设工程安全效益进行界定,利用灰色关联建立了安全投入——效益系统关联模型,对北京住总第六开发建设有限公司进行工程实例分析,分别从定性和定量的角度对投入资源的分配比例进行调整,并找出施工企业安全分项投入与事故经济损失的关联程度,为企业提高安全经济效益提供参考依据。(5)采用基于模糊综合评价法的安全评价理论体系,达到将工程项目建设过程中安全状况的“好”和“差”量化,使得对于安全状况的评价更加科学客观。结合北京住总第六开发建设有限公司房建工程项目进行实例分析,采用基于组合赋权法的模糊综合评价体系来对建筑施工现场的安全状况进行综合评估,获得的安全评价结果可信度较高,操作性较强,具有一定的实际应用价值。本文运用多种研究手段,针对在工程项目建设过程中如何制定更有效安全策略进行深入研究,采用统计学、工程管理理论、运筹学、博弈论理论、关联度分析、非线性规划、模糊综合评价及组合赋权法等科学理论体系,取得了一些研究成果。具体内容如下:(1)利用多种博弈模型对建设单位、施工单位与监理单位这三方之间的安全行为进行博弈分析。对建设单位而言,建设单位的监督成本与施工单位同监理单位的寻租概率正相关;当建设单位的监督成本一定时,寻租的概率与监督有效概率、对施工单位和监理单位的惩罚金额总和均呈反比;对施工单位而言,建设单位的监督概率与施工单位的净收益呈正比,与监督有效概率及对施工单位的惩罚金额呈反比;对监理单位而言,当施工单位和监理单位寻租获利多时,建设单位势必为了减少自身利益损失,会提高监督概率;当建设单位有效监督的概率大时,对施工单位和监理单位的合谋寻租造成震慑作用,建设单位对寻租的处罚力度越大同样会减少施工单位和监理单位的寻租行为。(2)为合理分配建设项目安全投入资源,首先,构建多层次安全投入指标,构造基于标准反比例函数模型的多层次安全投入比例计算模型,通过LM优化算法对相关历史数据进行了学习,以求解非线性模型的参数。其次,构造了非线性规划模型,通过matlab对非线性规划模型进行求解,计算出各个层次的安全投入分配比例。(3)构建建设工程项目中安全投入要素和安全经济效益的关系模型,采用灰色关联分析安全投入各要素和安全经济效益之间的关联度,对安全经济效益的影响因素进行分析。通过对比实验,发现对多层次安全投入指标进行调整,能够使安全效益有较大的提升。(4)提出针对安全效益提高的改进措施,具体措施方法包括:(1)安全投入措施进行合理正确的分配;(2)在保障安全水平的前提下降低劳动消耗;(3)尽量减少在安全管理活动中的物化劳动;(4)制定突发事故紧急方案,及时有效的进行善后处理;(5)制定现代化的安全管理方案。(5)构建基于组合赋权法的模糊综合评价模型,对建筑施工现场安全状况进行综合评估,建立多层次安全评价指标体系,通过层次分析法和熵权法分别计算评价指标的主观权重和客观权重,将两个权重进行组合得到结合主客观因素的新权重,确定最终评价结果。结合工程实例,采用基于组合赋权法的模糊综合评价模型进行综合评价,并将评价结果与AHP模糊综合评价方法进行对比,进一步验证了基于组合赋权法的模糊综合评价模型对建筑施工现场安全状况综合评价的实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the deepening of reform and opening up,the process of urbanization in China is speeding up,and a wave of construction wave has been set off.With the rapid development of the construction industry,it is also accompanied by a very serious problem of construction safety.Over the past 20 years,the extensive development of China’s construction industry has caused frequent accidents.According to the data of Ministry of housing and urban rural development,847 accidents occurred in China every year from 2000 to 2010,and 1090 people died.In 2010,627 accidents occurred in China’s housing construction and municipal engineering,which resulted in the death of 772 people.In 2011,there were 589 safety accidents in housing construction and municipal engineering,which killed 738 people.According to the latest statistics from the State Administration of work safety,in 2012,the number of all kinds of safety accidents in China’s construction industry reached 2437,which has exceeded the number of deaths in the coal industry,and has become a dangerous industry and mining industry and commerce industry.In 2014,Beijing Tsinghua high school in the construction of a construction site in the scaffold collapse occurred,resulting in 10 deaths;in 2015,a company of Lanling County resident in the construction site of retaining wall collapsed,killing 10 people,the direct economic loss of 7 million 215 thousand yuan;in 2016,29 building project in Shandong Province,Yantai city Longkou City Golden Mile Island B 7-15 "accident(8 deaths);2017,Shandong city of Liaocheng province Gaotang County Pinfu city is the three phase of the project occurred in piling machine dumping accident caused 4 deaths.In recent years,the safety problem of building engineering has attracted the attention of government departments.With the improvement of social life quality,people’s demand for safety is also increasing.In the process of construction,workers are increasingly expecting their personal safety to be guaranteed.Construction enterprises can also be aware of the negative impact of safety accidents on enterprises.But specific to the project,there are chances related to the specific economic interests,risk management awareness is not enough,in order to save the construction cost,not willing to carry out research risk and loss,not willing to study how to mobilize the enthusiasm of all parties involved in the project safety management,safety management of the project,mostly rely on experience the management experience of safety management,and has not formulated the safety decision scheme is in line with the actual project according to the characteristics of the construction industry,especially for the construction projects involved in safety behavior,game between the safety investment allocation of resources,safety benefit assessment,construction site safety evaluation such as the lack of systematic research.This has caused huge waste of resources and caused inestimable economic losses to the enterprises.In this context,the safety management of the construction engineering project are studied systematically based on the existing domestic and foreign literatures,from the perspective of economics and management evaluation of construction safety management and construction site safety conditions are studied;Study on the mutual influence between stakeholders safety decision the relationship between behavior by game,to achieve balance reasonable method;establish reasonable expression model of the relationship between safety investment and benefit,to establish the appropriate mathematical model to build a multi-level security management evaluation model of improved AHP fuzzy comprehensive method.It is hoped to provide theoretical guidance for the safety decision of the construction units and the construction units through the in-depth study of this system.The main contents are between the construction enterprise safety management theory research,engineering construction party game behavior research,construction project reasonable safety investment research,safety investment and benefit association analysis and construction site safety comprehensive evaluation of five parts.(1)Research on security economics and safety management.Firstly,the construction enterprise safety management summary evaluation,influence on safety input factors and occupation safety and health cost model analysis;in-depth study on the safety work of the foundation,including the system of work safety,each stage of the whole life cycle of the implementation of safety management system engineering etc.;then the construction safety and economic evaluation the commonly used analytical methods,introduces the safety accident risk assessment steps.(2)Introduce the basic concepts of game theory,and discuss the feasibility of using game theory to analyze the safety management of main construction participants,including construction units,construction units and supervision units,between any two party or three party.In the security game construction unit and construction unit,construction unit inspection in solving game equilibrium under certain assumed conditions when the probability of safety investment and construction units;and according to the results of the game,the system is designed from the angle of construction unit,put forward to improve the probability of safety inputs of construction unit.Construction units and supervision units of safety investment and safety supervision and its influencing factors from the stage of the game between the construction units and supervision units,the discount factor further repeated game analysis,and prove the grim strategy is a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium;consider the supervision units and construction units and construction units may be rent-seeking effectiveness on the three party supervision rent-seeking Yi Bo,lists the three party payment function,according to the equilibrium analysis of the parameters influence on the game results.(3)Analysis of the composition and source of safety investment in construction enterprises,and improve the finishing method of construction engineering safety accident direct loss and indirect loss measurement,construct the model of relationship between multiple levels of safety investment and safety benefits,using the model parameters to study history,Beijing total in the sixth development and construction company as an example,the quantitative calculation and analysis.Get the safety accident to minimize the loss of all safety investment item safety investment rate.(4)Analysis of construction engineering safety input and safety benefit,first of all the benefits of building engineering safety are defined,established the related model of safety investment benefit system by using grey relation of Beijing development and construction company total in the Sixth engineering example analysis,respectively,adjust the distribution proportion of investment resources from the Perspective of qualitative and quantitative,and find out the economic loss of partial construction enterprise safety cost and accident related degree,in order to improve the safety and economic benefits of reference.(5)The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to evaluate the safety status of the project in terms of "good" and "bad",which makes the evaluation of the safety status more scientific and objective.According to the Beijing total in the sixth development and construction company construction project are analyzed,the comprehensive assessment of the security situation in the construction site of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation system of combination weighting method based on the safety evaluation result obtained high credibility,strong operation,has a certain practical value.This paper uses a variety of research methods,in order to develop more effective security strategy in-depth study in the process of project construction,the project management theory,statistics,operational research,game theory,correlation analysis,nonlinear programming,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and combination weighting theory system of scientific method,obtained some results.The specific contents are as follows:(1)A game model is used to analyze the security behavior between the three parties,such as the construction units,the construction units and the supervision units.The construction units,construction units and supervision cost of rent-seeking probability with the construction units supervision units are related;the cost of supervision when the construction unit must,rent-seeking probability and probability,the amount of punishment for effective supervision of construction units and supervision units are combined is inversely proportional to the construction unit;that was proportional to the net income supervision probability the construction units and construction units,is inversely related to the effective supervision and punishment,the probability for the construction unit amount;supervision units,construction units and supervision units when seeking profit for a long time,the construction unit is bound to reduce the loss of their own interests,will improve the supervision probability;if the probability of the construction unit of effective supervision of large,rent-seeking construction units and supervision units,construction units caused deterrent penalties for rent-seeking more will also reduce the construction units and supervision The rent-seeking behavior of the unit.(2)For the rational allocation of resources,the construction project safety first,construct the multi-level index structure calculation model of safety input,standard inverse proportion function model based on multi-level security investment proportion,through the LM optimization algorithm of the relevant historical data for the study,to solve the non linear parameter model.Secondly,the nonlinear programming model is constructed,and the nonlinear programming model is solved by MATLAB,and the proportion of security input distribution at various levels is calculated.(3)Build a relational model between safety input elements and safety and economic benefits in construction projects,and use grey relational analysis to analyze the correlation degree between safety inputs and safety and economic benefits,and analyze the influencing factors of safety and economic benefits.Through the comparison experiment,it is found that the adjustment of the multi-level safety input index can make the safety benefit be greatly improved.(4)Put forward the improvement measures to improve the safety benefit,and the specific measures include:1)The reasonable and correct allocation of the safety input measures;2)Reduce labor consumption on the premise of guaranteeing the level of safety;3)To minimize the physical and chemical labor in the safety management activities;4)To formulate emergency emergency plans and timely and effective treatment;5)To formulate a modern safety management scheme.(5)To construct the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on combination weighting method,a comprehensive evaluation of the construction safety status of the construction site,the establishment of evaluation index system of multi-level security,by AHP and entropy method to calculate the evaluation index of the subjective and objective weights,two weight is obtained by combining the new weights combination of subjective and objective factors the final evaluation results.Combined with the engineering example,the comprehensive evaluation of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on combination weighting method,and the evaluation results were compared with AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,verified the practicability of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of combination weighting method on construction site safety condition evaluation based on.更多还原