【作者】 杨晓东；

【导师】 李晓；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 世界经济， 2018， 博士

【摘要】 粮食是人类最基本的生存保障和最基本的民生需求。在历史的长河中,人类经历了原始社会、奴隶社会和封建社会的漫长岁月,由于政治体制束缚,生产力水平低下,社会分工欠发达,商品经济落后,自然经济占主导地位,国际物资交换很少,各国粮食问题基本处在自给自足的封闭状态。随着产业革命和机器大工业时代的到来,资本主义的生产方式在世界逐步确立,社会生产力得到极大解放,社会分工充分发展,商品经济实现大的跨越,国与国之间的商品贸易和人员往来增多,促进了国际分工和世界市场的形成,世界各国经济逐渐发展成一个互融互通、相互依存渗透的全球经济体系。基于资源禀赋、生产方式、科技水平的差异,世界各国通过国际贸易平衡粮食需求、调节粮食结构,推动了世界粮食市场的形成和粮食贸易的发展。世界经济的发展,加快了各国商品和生产要素的流动,密切了各国经济往来和国际分工协作,促进了世界各国经济一体化、贸易全球化的进程。随着世界贸易的蓬勃发展,世界粮食贸易已成为世界贸易的重要组成部分,并发挥着平衡世界粮食供需、维护世界粮食安全的积极作用。中国一直是农业生产大国,也是农产品需求大国。长久以来,在世界粮食贸易市场中,中国粮食进出口贸易占据重要地位,借助世界粮食市场调剂粮食余缺是中国解决粮食问题的重要选择。在经济全球化的发展趋势下,世界粮食贸易与中国粮食安全联系更趋紧密,这不仅体现在粮食的进出口贸易方面,更多反映的是深层次的贸易体制、价格传导、贸易政策、贸易格局等方面的紧密关联,因此,世界粮食贸易的发展和演进对中国粮食安全问题产生日益重要的影响。2007年美国次贷危机引发的全球经济金融危机对世界经济发展带来了严重影响。世界经济进入大调整大转型时期,经济环境发生重大深刻变化,经济增速陷入低谷,产能过剩问题严重,国际市场竞争更加激烈,贸易投资保护主义有所抬头,贸易体制和秩序在力量消长中博弈和调整。为应对和走出经济危机,主要经济体均采取宽松的货币政策,导致全球性流动性过剩,对国际资本流动、全球金融市场的稳定均产生巨大影响。全球经济环境的重大变化对世界粮食市场和粮食贸易产生重大影响,首当其冲的是2008年全球粮食危机爆发,国际市场粮价暴涨,各国纷纷采取了“限出奖入”的保护主义措施,强化对粮食资源的控制,更加激化了国际粮食市场的波动。以粮食危机为分水岭,在世界政经格局的调整和世界经济环境的变动下,各国更加重视粮食安全,重新审视和调整粮食贸易政策,争取更加有利的粮食贸易规则,世界粮食贸易发展出现新的变化。研究探讨世界粮食贸易的发展特征与趋势,对于中国粮食安全问题有着重要意义。粮食安全对于人多地少、资源紧缺的中国来讲意义非同寻常。过去的几十年,中国在粮食问题上取得举世瞩目的成就,解决了13亿人的温饱问题,实现了粮食基本自给,用事实回击了《谁来养活中国》的作者、散布“中国粮食威胁论”的莱斯特·布郎先生一记响亮的耳光,“一个养活不了自己的中国”不仅生活得很好,而且为世界粮食安全做出了重要贡献。但是,无法回避的是为保障粮食安全付出沉重代价,资源透支、生态恶化、地力退化、食品安全等问题亟待扭转。而且还存在体制积弊严重、生产效率低下、消费升级压力、结构矛盾突出、产业竞争力差、财政不堪重负等现实问题,严重制约着粮食安全可持续发展,中国的粮食安全面临前所未有的挑战。2013年党的十八届三中全会吹响了深化改革的冲锋号,年底中央经济工作会议正式确立了“以我为主、立足国内、确保产能、适度进口、科技支撑”的国家粮食安全新战略,明确了市场化改革方向,提出谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全,更加注重农产品质量和食品安全,转变农业发展方式,抓好粮食安全保障能力建设等总要求。当前,中国经济发展进入结构调整、改革攻坚的关键时期,世界经济环境也处在深刻调整变化时期,中国粮食安全站在了重要的历史节点上。中国的粮食安全离不开世界,世界粮食贸易深刻影响着中国粮食安全。世界粮食贸易的新发展对我国粮食安全产生诸多影响,既有正面影响,也有负面影响;既有直接影响,又有间接影响。我们只有认清世界粮食贸易新的发展脉络和特征趋势,因势利导,趋利避害,有的放矢,才能提升粮食产业世界竞争力,实现粮食安全可持续发展,推进和保障国家粮食安全战略顺利实施。本文通过对世界粮食贸易发展历程的总结、回顾、梳理,以粮食危机这一关系世界政经发展的重大事件为分水岭,从贸易供需、贸易价格、贸易结构、贸易市场、贸易政策、贸易格局六个方面,深入研究分析了2007~2008年粮食危机后世界粮食贸易新的变化、特征和趋势,论证了其内涵,主要包括粮食贸易保护主义与贸易自由化交织并存、粮食贸易日益成为维系粮食安全的重要途径、世界粮食贸易进出口地区日益两极化、美国粮食贸易霸权成为维系和强化美国全球霸权的重要支柱。通过对粮食安全的属性和基本内涵的分析,提出了衡量中国粮食安全的数量安全、质量安全、结构安全、产业安全的四个维度,概述了中国粮食安全的基本状况。在此基础上,坚持以马克思主义政治经济学理论为指导,基于世界经济、世界贸易的基本原理,深入研究论证了世界粮食贸易对中国粮食安全的影响途径和机制。并采用系统分析和定性定量分析的方法,就世界粮食贸易的新发展对中国粮食安全的影响,从数量安全、质量安全、结构安全和产业安全四个维度进行了全面系统的分析,最后简要提出六个方面的建议和措施。总的来看,粮食危机后世界粮食贸易的新发展对我国粮食安全的影响,从数量安全维度,世界粮食贸易对中国带来积极影响,成为中国粮食总量平衡的重要渠道和保障,与此同时其负面影响日渐明显,表现在中国粮食贸易逆差逐年扩大,粮食自给率逐年下降,特别是大豆进口严重依赖国际市场,以及价差驱动下的玉米、大米进口量大幅增加,导致近年来出现“洋粮入市、国粮入库”局面,造成国产粮无效供给增加。从质量安全维度,世界转基因大豆以成本低、价格低的明显优势大量进入中国市场,基本替代了传统大豆压榨市场,随之传统大豆因种植面积萎缩与其他作物轮作减少,使土壤氮素下降,造成粮食生产环境问题显现;而可能对人体带来损害的转基因粮食大量进口,造成粮食品质风险加剧,以及对进口大豆的高度依赖造成粮食营养价值下降,这些都危及到粮食质量安全;从结构安全维度,国外廉价转基因大豆的进口冲击引发了国内粮食种植结构的失衡,进口粮打压下导致“稻强米弱”、“麦强粉弱”的粮食消费失衡问题,以及国产玉米、稻谷市场消化失灵下大量进入国家储备造成的库存结构失衡问题;从产业安全维度,在粮食贸易快速增长、进口谷物价格冲击、转基因大豆大量涌入、贸易定价权缺失、跨国粮食巨头垄断经营、粮食贸易格局强者恒强、由欧美发达国家主导的世界粮食贸易秩序不公平体制犹存的情形下,我国粮食产业的生存环境、国际竞争力、对外依存度和控制力都面临极大挑战,总体上已处于“不安全”的状态,主要影响品种是大豆,大豆产业由于高度依赖进口已处于“很不安全”状态;而谷物产业“基本安全”,基本符合“谷物基本自给,口粮绝对安全”的要求,但是安全分值也已不断接近“不安全”状态,形势不容乐观。本文的具体安排如下:第1章是绪论部分,从本文的研究背景和研究意义出发,在综合梳理目前针对世界粮食贸易、中国粮食安全、世界粮食贸易对中国粮食安全的影响的文献基础上,引出了本文研究的基本思路和方法,总体概况了本文的研究框架。第2章是世界粮食贸易的发展历程及新发展阶段的特征与内涵部分,主要包括简述世界粮食贸易的发展历程,分析粮食危机的爆发及成因,研究了世界粮食贸易新的发展阶段在贸易总量、贸易价格、贸易结构、贸易市场、贸易秩序、贸易格局六个方面的特征和内涵。第3章是中国粮食安全的基本内涵、衡量维度和基本状况,主要包括分析论述了粮食的公共属性和基本内涵,提出了数量安全、质量安全、结构安全和产业安全四个衡量粮食安全的维度,概述了中国粮食安全四个方面的基本状况。第4章是世界粮食贸易对中国粮食安全的影响机制部分,深入研究了世界粮食贸易对中国粮食安全的影响机制,从贸易总量(供需)、贸易价格、贸易结构、贸易市场、贸易政策、贸易格局六个方面分别研究了世界粮食贸易对中国粮食安全的影响原理、路径和机制。第5章是世界粮食贸易新发展对中国粮食安全的影响部分,从数量安全、质量安全、结构安全和产业安全四个维度,全面分析了世界粮食贸易的新发展对中国粮食安全的影响。第6章是建议及措施部分,从世界粮食贸易新发展对中国粮食安全诸多方面的影响得出相关结论,并提出建议和措施。希望能以此对中国有效应对世界粮食贸易的新挑战,对提升中国粮食安全保障能力提出供参考的顶层设计措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Food is the basic guarantee of living of mankind and also the basic demand of people’s livelihood.In the long river of history,human society has passed from primitive society,slave society and feudal society.However,because of the constraint of political system,low level of productivity,less developed social division of labor and commodity economy,predominant position of natural economy,the countries are basically self-sufficient in food production and lack of exchanging.Since Industrial Revolution and the era of large-scale industrial machinery,the social productive forces have rapidly released,social division of labor was quickly expanded,commodity economy has achieved leapfrog development,and business deals were popular among different countries,which have promoted the formation of international division of labor and world market.The global economy subsequently evolved into the mutual interdependence global economic system.In view of the difference of resources endowment,mode of production,scientific and technical level,the countries of the world balanced their food requirements and adjusted the food industrial structure through international trading,which has driven the formation of world food markets and development of food trade.The development of world economy accelerates the flow of goods and factors of production,closing the national economic exchanges and the international division of labor cooperation,promoting the course of economic integration and globalization among the countries of the world.With the vigorous development of world trade,the world food trade has become an important part of world trade,and also plays an active role in balancing world food supply and demand and safeguarding world food security.China is a giant producer of crops and also a great consumer.The imports and exports in China’s food have long been occupied an important position of the world food trade market.It is an important choice for China to resolve the food problems through the world food trade market.Under the trend of the development of economic globalization,the world food trade and China’s food safety have become more closely linked,not the least is its impact on imports and exports in food,but also reflecting on the close relation of the trade system,price conduction mechanism,the trade policy,and the pattern of trade etc.Therefore,the development and evolution of world food trade has an increasingly important influence on China’s food security.The global financial crisis caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 has had a serious impact on world economic development.The world economy has entered an important adjustment and the great period of transition,and its environment has made great changes,economic growth has slow down,the problem of excess capacity is serious,the international market is getting highly competitive,protectionism in international trade and investment is mounting,the system and the order of international trade also exert great effect on the process and outcome of the negotiation.In order to cope with and exit the economic crisis,the major economies adopt moderately easy monetary policy,which lead to global excessive liquidity,having a significant effect on international capital flows and global financial market stability.The great change of global economic environment has great impact on world food market and food trade,the first of these is that global food crisis in 2008,which causes the rising international food price.All countries adopt protectionist measures such as encouraging import and limiting export,to strength the control of food resources,which conflicts over the fluctuations of international food market.It forms the watershed since the global food crisis,all countries become more aware of the food security,reexamining and adjusting the food trade policy,trying to get more favorable order of food trade.the development of international food trade is experiencing new changes.It is important for China’s food security to make a study on the developing characteristics and tendency of world food trade.Food security has great significance to China,where has a big population and little land.In the past few decades,China has achieved remarkable achievements in food production,solving the 1.3 billion people’s food problems,and basically achieving self-sufficiency.The fact hits back at all the questioning.China not only has made a good life for people,but also making significant contributions to safeguard world food security.However,there is an unavoidable problem.That is it comes at a significant cost to guarantee food security,the problems of running out of resources,the ecological deterioration,land capacity degeneration,food safety are essential to be reversed.But also deeply serious existence system,the production efficiency is low,the upgrading of consumption pressure,the structure contradiction,practical problems such as poor industry competitiveness and fiscal burden,severely restricts the sustainable development of food security,China’s food security is facing unprecedented changes.In 2013,the Third Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee of the CPC identified comprehensively deepens the reform of the top-level design.In late 2013,the Central Economic Work Conference established the new strategy of national food safety,refining the marketability reform direction,raising the general requirement of basic self-sufficiency in grains,food security,and quality safety of agricultural products,the transformation of agricultural development methods etc.At present,China’s economic development has entered a crucial period of structural adjustments and reform.The world economy is also in profound adjustments.China’s food security has been in a certain historical node.China’s food security is inseparable from the world,and world food trade has a profound impact on China’s food security.The new development of world food trade has many effects on food security,which has both positive and negative effects,direct or indirect effects.Only if recognizing the new development and characteristic trend of world food trade,we can improve the competitiveness of the food industry,achieving sustainable development of food security,achieving the successful implementation of the national food security strategy.This article focuses on the development course of world food trade,taking food crisis as a watershed,and then deeply analyzed and researched the new development,features and trends of world food trade after the food crisis in 2007-2008 from six aspects,such as supply and demand of trade,trade price,trade structure,trade market,trade policy and trade pattern.It also outlines the connotation of world food trade,including the coexistence and interaction between food trade protectionism and trade liberalization,food trade has become an important channel for safeguarding food security,the polarization of import and export area of world food trade,the hegemony of America’s food trade is an important pillar for strengthening the world’s existing hegemony.Through analyzing the attributes and basic connotation of food security,it is found that China’s food security can be measured in terms of quantity,quality,structure,industrial security,and summary the basic situation of China’s food security.On this basis,adhere to the Theory of Marxist Political Economy as the instruction,according to the basic principle of world economy and trade,the research is finished deeply and summarized the pathway and mechanism of impact on China’s food security from world food trade.By using the method of system analysis and the qualitative and quantitative analysis,and through quantity,quality,structure,industrial security four aspects,this paper makes a comprehensive and systematic analysis of impact on China’s food security from world food trade,and then raises recommendations and measures from six aspects.In general,from quantity security aspects,the new development of world food trade has a positive effect on China’s food security;it has become an important way and guarantee of the overall balance between China’s food supply and demand.At the same time,its negative impact is obvious.For example,the higher food foreign trade deficit,self-sufficiency rate of grain dropped year by year,especially soybean imports relies heavily on the international market,as well as the spread of corn,rice imports increased dramatically,causing the invalid supply to increase grain production.From quality security aspects,more and more genetically modified soybeans enter China because of its low cost and price,basically replace the traditional soybean crushing.Accordingly,the plant area of the traditional soybean and rotate agricultural crops is decreased,which causes the soil erosion and nutrient loss directly.The effect of genetically modified soybeans on human’s health is still uncertain,which has a potential impact on healthy security.All these endanger the food quality security.From structure security aspects,the import of genetically modified soybeans has led to the imbalance of crop-planting structure.The import of food also causes the imbalance of food consumption,and the imbalance of inventory structure.From industrial security aspect,with the rapid growth of food trade,price shocks of imported food,highly dependence on the import of genetically modified soybeans,lack of trade pricing power,multinational food giant monopoly,and the unfair order of world food trade dominated by the developed countries,the living environment,international competitiveness,foreign trade dependence and control of China’s food industrial all have faced great challenges.But overall,it is in an unsafely state,especially the soybeans,which is not safe because of highly reliant on imports.The grain industrial is basically safe,but is much closer to insecurity,and the situation is not optimistic.The detailed content of dissertation is as following:The first chapter is prolegomena.From the perspective of the research background and significance,and on the basis of teasing out the literature about world food trade and its impact on China’s food security,it leads to the basic thoughts and ways of researching,and provides an over view of research framework.The second chapter reviews the development process of world food trade,including the process of world food trade and the analysis of the causes of the food crisis,and then discusses the major expression of new development of world food trade from six aspects,such as trade volume,trade price,trade structure,trade market,trade policy and trade pattern,and also deeply analyzes the connotation and features of new development.The third chapter studies the fundamental connotation,dimensions and basic situation of China’s food security,discussing the common attributes and fundamental connotation of food security,raising quantity,quality,structure,industrial security four dimensions used to measure food security,and summary the basic situation of China’s food security.The forth chapter researches on the mechanism of impact on China’s food security from world food trade.The research is finished deeply and summarized the pathway and mechanism of impact on China’s food security from world food trade through six aspects,such as supply and demand of trade,trade price,trade structure,trade market,trade policy and trade pattern.The fifth chapter is the new development of world food trade and its impact on China’s food security.This paper makes a comprehensive and systematic analysis of impact on China’s food security from world food trade through quantity,quality,structure,industrial security four aspects.The sixth chapter is the recommendation and measure.This article provides the suggestion after analyzing the various impacts on China’s food security from new development of world food trade.It is hoped that this will be a top-level design measures for reference to China to tackle new challenges of world food trade,and also to improve the safeguarding capacity of China’s food security.更多还原