【作者】 史贞；

【导师】 王森；

【作者基本信息】 山西财经大学 ， 政治经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 有关金融发展、产业进化与经济成长的研究几乎是从发展经济学诞生以来,学术界和政府部门一直在探讨的热门话题。2008年由金融领域诱发的全球范围的经济危机,已经对它们赋予了新的含义,如何诠释和解决它们产生的一系列问题,是各国未来社会经济发展的重要课题。从1969年戈德史密斯(Goldsmith)提出金融发展的概念以来,学术界对金融发展的内涵争议较大;目前发达国家正在经历金融发展的再平衡过程,而发展中国家在其资源禀赋的背景下,是发展中的局限性导致的金融抑制还是制度不完全情况下过度开放,或是两者兼而有之,成为考量经济能否健康发展的关键问题。产业进化作为重新配置资源,促进经济成长的重要途径,需要处理海量的市场信息,平衡收益与风险。而除了金融没有任何一种有效的机制可以完成如此巨大和精细的任务。大量的理论和实践表明金融不仅直接为产业进化提供升级资金、甄别信用、配置资源和管理风险,同时也通过影响技术进步,进而对产业进化与经济成长发生作用。同时,随着全球经济规模的持续扩大和开放程度的进一步提高,产业进化是转变经济增长方式的核心,已经成为经济学家的共识,但具体到不同资源禀赋的国家或地区如何选择经济成长的不同路径,显然是一个富有挑战性的课题。而对于经济成长,自1960年罗斯托(Rostow)首次提出这一概念以来,学术界不断地在内涵和外延上对其进行修正,但基本上是以单纯围绕经济增长模式的思路来设置经济成长的目标,显然这是有缺陷的。可以说,如何诠释和解决它们产生的一系列问题,成为各国未来社会经济发展中的重要课题。有鉴于此,本文从国际层面、国家层面和山西层面对这三个相互关联的问题做出研究,并重点关注经济成长中的金融发展与产业进化的关系,希望探讨在新的历史条件下所产生的新问题的解决路径,具有较大的现实意义。本文综合运用产业理论、金融发展、经济增长等理论,并运用数理推导、统计描述、计量分析、比较分析等方法对相关问题进行了分析,并得到了有意义的研究结论。论文主要内容和结构安排如下:第一部分是导论。由于国际金融危机的发生,全球经济金融的再平衡以及中国展开的新一轮产业进化和金融转型构成了论文研究的背景。然后,论文对金融发展、产业进化和经济成长概念进行了界定。接着介绍了论文研究的逻辑安排和研究方法,以及主要创新之处。第二部分是文献综述。长期以来,只有经济成长才将金融发展与产业进化联系起来。论文在该部分对国内外金融发展、产业发展、经济增长三个问题中的两者之间的相关性研究进行了梳理、归纳和分析。在综述基础上,提出了论文重点关注的视角和问题。第三部分是理论分析。该部分探讨了经济成长中的金融发展与产业进化的内在关系,并对此进行了理论解释,发现金融发展可以通过直接渠道(资本积累)和间接渠道(技术进步)影响产业进化和经济成长。接着,论文通过数理推导分析了金融发展的直接和间接作用机制。第四部分是中国金融发展与产业进化的实践分析。该部分考察了中国金融发展和产业变化现状。在此基础上,说明了金融发展、产业进化与经济成长之间发展不平衡的几个典型事实。然后基于中国转型时期的特殊国情,分析了地方政府这一典型因素对此事实的影响作用,并通过计量模型对影响效应进行了验证。第五部分是金融发展、技术进步与产业进化关系分析。理论已经证明金融发展可以通过技术渠道间接作用于产业进化。本部分首先构建了三者关系的均衡模型,证明在均衡状态下金融发展和技术进步对产业进化的影响关系。接着,选取相应指标,实证检验了中国金融发展、技术进步与产业发展之间的作用效果。第六部分金融发展与产业进化的国际经验。本部分选取比较了美国、日本,欧盟和台湾等经济体产业结构变迁规律;归纳了产业发展的金融支持模式和货币国际化进程中产业发展的国别经验。在此基础上,最后提出了对中国产业进化中金融发展的几点启示,以及新的历史条件下实现中国产业进化的新的思路。第七部分是山西案例。山西属于典型的资源性地区,是我国经济转型和结构调整的重点区域。该部分重点考察了山西产业发展的区域特殊性;分析了区域金融发展的特征;检验了区域金融发展与产业进化的关系。基于资源禀赋和经济发展的差异性原则,对资源型地区的金融发展与产业进化提出了有针对性的建议。第八部分是研究结论、政策建议和研究不足。在梳理论文研究结论的基础上,从金融发展、开放经济、政府行为等角度针对性地提出了推动我国经济成长的政策建议,并对论文研究的不足进行了说明。综合论文的研究,创新之处主要有三点:一是构建了以储蓄向投资转化的比率反映金融发展水平,以不同产业的全要素生产率反映技术进步差异的均衡模型,得到了均衡状态下的金融发展、技术进步增长率对产业变化的影响关系。二是通过案例分析发现区域金融发展与产业进化具有地方特色,与国家层面的发展状况并不一致,区域发展不能简单模拟国家层面的制度安排,而需要制定因地制宜的、具有地方特色的金融发展和产业发展政策。三是在把握中国经济成长的历史进程和未来趋势的基础上,运用博弈论方法分析和验证了转型时期政府行为、金融发展和产业发展的动态关系,为今后处理三者关系提供理论参考和方向指引。同时,反思了封闭经济分析框架下的经济成长中的金融发展和产业调整的思路,提出了人民币国际化影响要素禀赋,推动产业创新和结构调整的新思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 The researches related to financial development,industrial evolution and economic growth have been the hot topics among the academia and government sectors almost since the birth of development economics.In 2008,the global economic crisis induced by the financial sector gives a new meaning to the three aspects above.Hence,how to interpret and solve a series of issues induced by the three aspects must be an important topic for social and economic development of all nations in the future.The connotation of financial development has been very controversial in the academia ever since Goldsmith put forward the concept of financial development in 1969.Currently,developed countries are experiencing the rebalancing of financial development while under the background of their resources endowment,developing countries is facing a key issue concerning healthy economic development on account of financial repression caused by the development limitations or over-opening without complete systems,or both.Industrial evolution,as the important way of reallocating resources and promoting economic growth,needs to handle huge amounts of market information and balance the benefits as well as risks.However,there is no any effective mechanism which can complete such a great and exquisite task except finance.A lot of theories and practice show that finance offers industrial structure with upgrading funds,identifies credit,allocates resources and manages risks and then takes effect on industrial evolution as well as economic development by the way of influencing technological progress.Meantime,along with the continuous expansion and further openness of the global economy,industrial evolution has become the core of transformation of the economic growth mode,which has been the consensus of economists.However,it is clearly a challenging task to choose the different path of economic growth for the specific countries and regions with different resources endowment.For the economic growth,academic circles continuously modify it from its denotation and connotation ever since 1960 when Rostow firstly put forward this concept.But all the modifications simply set the goal of economic growth simply based on the thinking of economic growth mode,which is obviously flawed.Hence,how to interpret and solve a series of issues induced by the three aspects above must be an important topic for social and economic development of all nations in the future.For this reason,this article makes researches on the three interconnected aspects from the international level,national level and Shanxi level,and pays great attention to the relationship between financial development and industrial evolution in the economic growth.In this way,I hope to explore the new paths to resolve the problems produced under the new historical conditions,which is with great practical significance.This thesis analyzes the related issues with the integrated use of industrial theory,financial development theory and economic growth theory as well as by utilizing methods such as mathematical derivation,statistical description,measurement analysis and comparative analysis.Finally,the meaningful research conclusions are reached.The content and structure of the thesis is as follows:Chapter One is Introduction.Due to the international financial crisis,the global economic and financial rebalancing as well as the new round of industry evolution and financial transformation China launches constitute the research background of this thesis.Then,the part defines the concept of financial development,industrial evolution and economic growth.Next,the thesis introduces the logical arrangement,research methods and the main innovation points.Chapter Two is literature review.For a long time,financial development is connected with industry evolution only through economic growth.In this part,this paper conducts the combing,induction and analysis based on the correlation between the each two among financial development,the industrial development and economic growth home and abroad.Based on the review,the thesis puts forward the focus views and questions.Chapter Three is theoretical analysis.This chapter carries on the theoretical explanation for the intrinsic relationships between financial development and industrial evolution in the progress of economic growth.Then,the thesis finds that financial development can affect the industry evolution and economic growth through direct channel(capital accumulation)and indirect channel(technological progress).Then,through mathematical derivation,this paper analyzes the direct and indirect effect mechanism of financial development.Chapter Four is the practical analysis of financial development and industrial evolution in China.This part investigates the current situation of China’s financial development and industrial changes.On this basis,this chapter also describes several typical facts of the unbalanced relationship among financial development,industrial evolution and economic growth.Then based on the special national conditions during China’s transition period,this paper analyzes influence of the local government,a typical factor,to this fact,and verifies the effect through the measurement model.Chapter Five is the analysis on relationship among financial development,technological progress and industrial evolution.Theories have proved that financial development can indirectly affect industrial evolution through technical channels.At first,this part builds the equilibrium model for the three aspects above,which is going to show the influence of financial development and technological progress on industry evolution under equilibrium condition.Then,the paper empirically test the effect among China’s financial development,technological progress and industrial development by selecting corresponding indicators.Chapter Six is the international experience about the financial development and industrial evolution.This part selects and compares the industrial structure change rules in economies like the United States,Japan,the European Union and Taiwan;summarizes the financial support mode of industry development and the internationalization experience on the industry development in the process of currency nationalization.Based on that,the thesis finally puts forward several suggestions for the financial development in the process of China’s industry evolution and the new ideas to realize China’s industrial evolution under the historical conditions.Chapter Seven is about the cases in Shanxi Province.Shanxi is the typical resourceful region and is the key area of economic transition and structural adjustment in China.This part focuses on the area particularity of the industrial development in Shanxi;analyzes the characteristics of the regional financial development;inspects the relationship between regional financial development and industrial evolution.Based on the principle of resources endowment and the principle of economic development differences,this thesis puts forward targeted suggestions for the financial development and industry evolution in resource-based regions.Chapter Eight is on the research conclusions,policy suggestions and the lacks of this paper.Based on combing research conclusions in this paper,this paper puts forward the policy suggestions on promoting economic growth in China from views like financial development,open economy and government actions and then states the lacks of the researches in this thesis.Synthesizing the researches in this paper,there are three main innovation points:Firstly,the paper constructs the equilibrium models:reflecting the level of financial development on the rate of conversion from saving to investment as well as reflecting technological progress differences on the total factor productivity in different industries;and reaches the influence of financial development,technical progress rate on the industrial structure change under the equilibrium condition.Secondly,through case analysis,this paper finds that regional financial development and industrial restructuring is with local characteristics and discordance with the development status on the national level.Therefore,I come up with the conclusion that regional development cannot simply model the system arrangement from the national level but needs to formulate financial and industrial development policies according to local conditions and with local characteristics.Thirdly,on the basis of grasping the historical process and the future trend of China’s economic growth,the paper analyzes and verifies the dynamic evolution relationship among government actions,financial development and industrial development during the transition period by using the game theory,which provides theoretical reference and direction for dealing with the relationship among the three hereafter.At the same time,the thesis rethinks the thoughts on financial development and industrial restructuring under the framework of closed economic analysis in the process of economic growth and puts forward the new research perspectives that endowment of RMB internationalization affects industry innovation and structural adjustment.更多还原