【作者】 李伟；

【导师】 李敏强；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 系统工程， 2016， 博士

【摘要】 软件产品的收入能否持续增长对与软件业乃至整个国民经济的发展都至关重要。产品收入的持续递增需要依靠多阶段发布策略的成功实施,而软件产品与物质产品在多个方面的区别使得现有的关于物质产品的研究成果并不能适用于软件产品。为此,本文根据软件产品的经济特性,采用经济学、管理科学、系统科学和进化算法等理论和方法,对软件产品的多阶段发布策略进行了研究。本文的主要内容和创新性工作总结如下:(1)介绍了软件产品物质产品在经济特性上的重要区别,并从多阶段发布、版本划分和新产品的发布时间这三个方面评述了现有关于软件产品的研究成果,进而总结了理论界还有待解决的问题。(2)在两阶段框架内,构建了与需求不确定相关的口碑效应函数以及受此口碑效应所影响的顾客支付意愿函数。构建好两阶段的支付意愿函数以后,再根据顾客的自我选择原理构建总利润函数,进而将软件厂商对各阶段产品质量和定价的最优决策问题定义为一个受需求不确定性影响的最优化模型。采用数值方法求解该最优化模型,分析了顾客需求的不确定程度对软件厂商决策的影响。(3)在两阶段框架内,构建了考虑到顾客需求有界性(即顾客的需求存在上、下限)的分段支付意愿函数,并引入了一个参数,代表顾客对产品质量降低的不容忍程度,该参数可以定量描述顾客需求上、下限之间的线性关系。考虑了两种方案:(a)各阶段均只发布一种版本;(b)各阶段均发布质量有所区别的两种版本。分别针对这两种方案,构建了受需求不确定性影响的口碑效应函数,并通过数值实验分析需求的不确定性和顾客的不容忍程度对软件厂商的设计和定价决策的影响。结果还表明,软件厂商在第一阶段应该只发布一种版本,这样可以获得更好的口碑,而在第二阶段应该发布两种版本,这样能够获得更高的利润。(4)在两阶段框架内,构建了考虑顾客对软件贬值前瞻性预期的支付意愿函数,并引入软件产品贬值速度参数,量化顾客的前瞻性。另外,构建了与顾客需求不确定程度相关的软件厂商需求分析效果函数,需求分析工作的效果同样会影响到顾客的支付意愿。根据顾客的自我选择原理,将软件厂商对新产品的发布时间以及各阶段产品定价的最优决策问题定义为受需求不确定性和软件贬值速度所影响的最优化模型,进而采用数值方法分析顾客需求的不确定程度以及软件产品的贬值速度对软件产品最优发布时间及定价的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 The sustained growth revenue from the software product business is crucial to the development of software industry and the national economy.The sustained growth revenue of one product derives from the multi-period release of the product.Software product is quite different from physical product with regards to many aspects,and the current research on physical product is not adequate for software product.Therefore,we study the policies about multi-period release of software product.Our research work is based on the economic features of software product,and employs the knowledge of economics,management science,systematic science and evolution algorithm.The main contents and contributions of our work are as follow:(1)We discuss the the differences between software product and physical product with regards toeconomic features.And then we review the prior literatures about multi-period release,versioning and new product entry timing.According to the former research,we summarize some issues that remain to be tackled.(2)In a two-period framework,we develop a novel model of word-of-mouth effect relating to the requirements uncertainty.In addition,we propose a new function of willingness to pay(WTP)that is impacted by word-of-mouth effect.We present the total profit function basing on WTP model and customers’ self-selection principles.And then we formulate the software provider’s determination problem into an optimization model.In this optimization model,the provider needs to decide the optimal quality and price of products in the two periods.We solve the optimization model numerically,and invenstigate the impact of requirements uncertainty on software vendor’s determination.(3)In a two-period framework,we propose a piecewise WTP function that takes into account the boundness of customers’ requirements.The boundness means that customers’ requirements has infimum and supresum.We introduce a parameter that denotes the customers’ intolerance to the degradation of software quality.The parameter quantificationally describes the linear relationship between the infimum and supresum of customers’ requirements.We consider two schemes:(a)releasing a single version in each period;(b)releasing two versions in each period.For each scheme,we develop a word-of-mouth effect model impacted by the requirements uncertainty.We numerically analyze how the requirements uncertainty and customers’ intolerance to quality degradation impact on the optimal qualities and prices of products in each period.The results show that the software provider should introduce a single version in the first period to generate a better word-of-mouth,but two versions in the second period to obtain a higher profit.(4)In a two-period framework,we develop a noval WTP function that corporates the customers’ foresight on software depreciation.In the WTP function,we introduce a software depreciation speed parameter to quantify the customers’ foresight.Moreover,we present a function describing the performance of the softwar firm’s work on requirements analysis.The performance of requirements analysis relates to the customers’ requirements uncertainty and impacts customers’ WTP.According to customers’ self-selection princeples,we formulate the software provider’s decision problem as an optimization model that takes requirements ucertainty and customers’ foresight as its parameter.The software provider needs to determine the optimality of the second-period product entry timing and the prices in each period.We solve the optimization model numerically,and then we analyze the impact of requirements uncertainty and software depreciation speed on the optimality of software launching timing and prices.更多还原