【作者】 文云冬；

【导师】 周茂荣；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 世界经济， 2016， 博士

【摘要】 世界人口的持续增长与世界各国的经济发展,导致全球水资源短缺和此起彼伏的国际跨境水资源利用冲突,给世界各国开发利用跨境水资源带来巨大的政治和经济压力。澜沧江—湄公河是亚洲的一条重要河流,流经中国、缅甸、老挝、泰国、柬埔寨、越南。流域六国有着不同的用水需求目标,在澜沧江—湄公河跨境水资源开发利用竞争中形成博弈,流域各国的竞争和合作都是明显的。流域各国正通过对话与合作,寻找符合澜沧江—湄公河流域各国实际情况的、可接受的、最可行的跨境水资源利用方案。出于保护流域整体利益考虑,为预防和解决跨境水资源利用冲突提供明确的思路和可行的方法,论文以跨境水资源利用的首要原则——公平和合理利用为核心,对澜沧江—湄公河流域跨境水资源分配问题进行了深入的研究,全文共分为六章。第一章对澜沧江—湄公河流域跨境水资源分配问题的理论和现实意义进行分析,对国内外研究现状加以综述,意在提供课题研究的背景。第二章分析澜沧江—湄公河跨境水资源按照流域规划制定的多种分配管理模式在国内外应用现状及发展趋势,指出现有规划模式存在的问题,以及这些问题导致的国际河流跨境水资源竞争利用和冲突的严峻性,指出澜沧江—湄公河跨境水资源整体流域规划的必要性。第三章根据澜沧江—湄公河流域跨境水资源的现有分配模式,探讨跨境水资源统一管理开发模式框架,对澜沧江—湄公河跨境水资源分配模式发展趋势进行分析,进而研究跨境水资源整体流域规划模型。在该模型中,对不同国家的多个开发目标的权重矩阵及效益差矩阵进行分析,以确定后续章节研究的流域整体开发的重点目标——农业灌溉水权分配及水电开发效益的合作博弈分析。第四章根据跨境水资源整体流域规划模型,进行了澜沧江—湄公河五国农业灌溉水权分配博弈分析。首先对水权管理和水权界定理论进行分析,接着讨论了澜沧江—湄公河跨境水资源水权交易经济影响及不确定性分配方法,利用比例法和两部分配法对五国灌溉水权进行分配,对其效益进行博弈求解和分析,并比较了博弈合作和其他水资源分配方法的结果并做分析,得到多国合作比各参与国单干获得更多效益的结论,从而验证了澜沧江—湄公河流域的整体流域规划模型的科学性。这是文章的一个重要创新点。第五章基于全流域整体规划模型,针对澜沧江—湄公河流域内其他五个国家普遍关注和忧虑中国在上游进行水电开发会对下游国家带来怎样的影响这一现实问题,运用跨境水资源分配效益差矩阵的计算方法,分析中国在澜沧江—湄公河上游进行水电开发对流域内六个国家开展跨境水资源利用的七个开发目标所造成的影响,求出六个国家各自的七个开发目标具体效益差量化指标。运用效益差,根据各国水电开发容量计算澜沧江—湄公河全流域年发电量和发电收益,并对整体收益进行了合作博弈分析。从而验证上游国家进行水电开发对其他下游国家的多个开发目标的影响利大于弊,且合作收益优于单干收益。第六章在对澜沧江—湄公河跨境水资源合作开发研究基础上,就澜沧江—湄公河流域内建设“一带一路”战略与澜沧江—湄公河跨境水资源合作模式之间的关系、相互作用和发展趋势进行分析,强调全流域整体规划模型作为创新的跨境水资源合作模式,对于澜沧江—湄公河跨境水资源合作研究的重要性,以及对于澜沧江—湄公河流域内建设“一带一路”战略的积极作用。从中国自身综合利益角度出发,指出在复杂的地区国际形势下,中国在澜沧江—湄公河流域内进行水电开发应持立场和解决办法。最后,总结全文,并对今后的研究作出展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the continuous increasing of world population and world economic development, it has caused the global shortage of water resources and continuous utilizing conflict of trans-boundary water resources. This brings great political and economic pressure on the utilization of freshwater resources to each country. Lancang-Mekong River is an import river in Asia and it flows through China、Burma、 Laos、Thailand、Cambodia and Viet Nam. The six countries within the watershed have different water targets and form the game in utilization competition for trans-boundary water resources in Lancang-Mekong River. The competition and the cooperation of basin countries are noticeable. Basin countries are looking for acceptable and the most feasible programme for utilization of trans-boundary water resources corresponding to the actual situation of the Lancang-Mekong River basin countries through dialogue and cooperation.For the reasons of protecting the public interest of basin and providing a clear idea and feasible methods for avoidance and resolution conflict problem of trans-boundary water resource utilizing, this dissertation focus on the first principles of trans-boundary water resources—equitable and reasonable utilization, and makes a thorough study on problems of trans-boundary water resource allocation in Lancang-Mekong River. This dissertation is divided into six chapters.Chapter 1 analyses the theoretical and practical significance of problems about trans-boundary water resource allocation in Lancang-Mekong River. It aims to provide research background of the subject.Chapter 2 analyses situation and tendency at home and abroad of multiple allocation and management models formulated according to watershed planning for trans-boundary water resources in Lancang-Mekong River. It also explains the problems of existing planning mode and seriousness of competitive utilization and conflict of trans-boundary water resources caused by these problems. Then it points out the necessity of watershed integrated planning for trans-boundary water resources in Lancang-Mekong River.Chapter 3 discusses organization framework of unified management and development of trans-boundary water resources, according to the current allocation mode of Lancang- Mekong River. It analyses allocation patterns of trans-boundary water resources in the Lancang-Mekong River and researches overall watershed planning model of trans-boundary water resources. In the model, it analyses weight matrix and benefit difference matrix of multiple development objectives for different countries to make sure the central objectives of watershed integrated planning to be researched in the following chapters——water rights allocation for agricultural irrigation and cooperative game analysis for hydropower project development.Chapter 4 makes game theory analysis on agricultural irrigation water rights allocation for five countries in the Lancang-Mekong River according to overall watershed planning model of trans-boundary water resources. First, it analyses theory of water right management and definition of water right. Then it discusses economic influence of water right trade and uncertainty allocation method in the Lancang-Mekong River and allocates irrigation water rights for five countries using proportion method and Two-Part allocation method. Then it solves the game problem and analyses the benefit of the game. Finally it compares the results between cooperation game and other methods of water resources allocation and gets a conclusion that multinational cooperation can get more benefit than working alone by each participating country. This is an important innovation of this dissertation.Chapter 5 is based on the model of overall watershed planning and for the situation about what influence and impact the upstream countries will bring to downstream countries when they develop hydropower in the upstream, which is concerned and worried universally by basin countries in Lancang-Mekong River, Chapter 5 computes impacts and benefits of hydropower development by China in the upstream of Lancang-Mekong River on seven development indicators of trans-boundary water resources utilization made by six countries in the basin, using computing method of benefit difference matrix of trans-boundary water resources allocation. It solves respective specific quantitative indicators of seven development objects in basin countries. It computes basin-wide annual energy production and power generating benefits according to capacity of hydropower development of each country. Then it takes Laos for example, makes a cooperative game analysis on overall benefit. Through these computing results, it verifies that the hydropower development in upstream countries can do more good than harm to the multiple development indicators in downstream countries and cooperative benefit is better than benefit of working alone.Chapter 6 is based on research of the Lancang-Mekong cooperation in trans-boundary water resources development, analysis the relationship and the interaction and the development trend between the Lancang-Mekong River basin constructs "The Belt and Road" strategy and the Lancang-Mekong River water resources trans-boundary cooperation. Then, it emphasizes the importance of the overall planning innovation model as a whole basin is used to research the trans-boundary water resources cooperation mode of the Lancang-Mekong River, and how it plays a positive role on the Lancang-Mekong River Basin constructs "The Belt and Road" strategy. Finally, from the point of view of China’s own comprehensive benefits, it points out that China’s position and solution should be held in the development of hydropower development in the Lancang Mekong River Basin. At last, it summarizes the research conclusions and proposals of the dissertation, and gives prospect on the continuing study.更多还原