【作者】 杨春梅；

【导师】 赵宝福；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁工程技术大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 冰雪旅游业在社会经济发展的地位越来越重要,对区域经济影响日渐明显,成为众多区域的发展目标之一。中国的冰雪旅游业发展态势良好,但在发展中还存在若干问题,因此对冰雪旅游业进行深入研究,无论从冰雪旅游业自身发展和现实需求出发,或是从区域稳定发展和经济持续增长考虑,都显得十分迫切和必要。本文采用灰色关联方法、系统动力学仿真方法,运用Vensim PLE软件对冰雪旅游业发展模式进行研究。通过冰雪旅游业的动力系统功能与特性,选取了资源、经济、文化和环境4个子系统的22个指标,创新性的构建了冰雪旅游业发展动力系统模型,并对哈尔滨冰雪旅游业发展模式进行选择并提出相关建议。研究结果表明：(1)提出了四种冰雪旅游业发展模式。国外冰雪旅游业发展比较完善,国内冰雪旅游业尚处于发展阶段,通过对国内外冰雪旅游业发展模式的分析及总结,提出了资源驱动型、经济高效型、文化兼顾型、环境保护型四种冰雪旅游业发展模式。(2)确定了冰雪旅游业发展动力系统及动力因素。以冰雪旅游业4种发展模式为基础,构建冰雪旅游业动力系统结构模型,指出动力系统包括资源子系统、经济子系统、文化子系统和环境子系统。(3)构建了冰雪旅游业发展模式的选择模型。运用系统动力学的原理与方法,分析冰雪旅游业发展系统的因果反馈结构,构建24条反馈回路及4个动力子系统因果关系图。通过系统变量及指标确定,构建冰雪旅游业发展模式选择模型,通过系统模型的函数关系式及真实性检验,对冰雪旅游业发展模式进行选择。(4)选择了哈尔滨冰雪旅游业发展模式。根据哈尔滨冰雪旅游业的发展现状,分析冰雪旅游业动力系统关联性,构建72个函数关系式并进行真实性检验,对哈尔滨冰雪旅游业发展模式进行选择,测度出文化兼顾型模式为哈尔滨冰雪旅游业的理想模式,其模式选择结果符合哈尔滨冰雪旅游业现实情况。最后提出合理利用资源,突出地域特色；深化冰雪旅游文化,树立旅游品牌；加大环境保护力度,宣传冰雪旅游新理念等措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 The ice and snow tourism is becoming one of the regional mainstay industries with more impacts on the regional economy and playing more and more important roles in the social and economic development, which has become one of the developing objectives in many regions. Though the ice and snot tourism in China is enjoying a good developing trend, there are still many problems associated with it. For this reason, it is very urgent and necessary to carry out an in-depth research no matter from the self-development and self-reliance prospect, or from the regional developing stability and economic sustainable growth prospect.The research has been carried out by applying literature review, expert screening, grey correlation analysis method and systemic simulation on the dynamic system of the developments of the ice and snow tourism, with the help of software. Through the ice and snow tourism dynamic system function and characteristics, combined with the existing power system model, select the resources, economy, culture and environment 22 indexes of four subsystems, The operation process of the ice and snow tourism has been reflected through the systemic variables and index confirmation, ice and snow tourism development power system model was established by using the model of Harbin ice and snow tourism development mode selection and puts forward related Suggestions. The results show that:(1)China snow tourism development model includes four types. More perfect snow tourism development abroad, domestic tourism is still in the development stage snow, Through the research, developing patterns have been proposed, including resource-driven pattern, high economic efficiency pattern, culture-balanced pattern, and environmental protection pattern, after the analysis of the developing patterns for ice and snow tourism both at home and abroad. (2) Snow tourism development power system includes four subsystems. Four kinds of ice and snow tourism development model, It is also pointed out that the dynamic system for ice and snow tourism consists of resource subsystem, economic subsystem, culture subsystem, and environmental subsystem and influencing factor analysis then applied.(3)Build the ice and snow tourism development mode choice model.Based on the above mentioned, systemic simulation method is applied to analyze the casual feedback relations of the developing system of the ice and snow tourism and construct 24 feedback loops and 4 casual relation charts, as well as the systemic model for the ice and snow tourism patterns. The operation process of the ice and snow tourism has been reflected through the systemic variables and index confirmation, while fully integrated all influencing factors including resources, economy, culture and environment.(4)At the same time, Harbin has been taken as a typical example to analyze and select its developing pattern for the ice and snow tourism as culture-balanced pattern. Then suggestions are also given to utilize its resources and highlight geographic features, develop in-depth ice and snow tourism and establish its own tourism brand; and then improve environmental protection and introduce new concepts of ice and snow tourism.更多还原