【作者】 戴翔；

【导师】 张二震；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 应用经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 发端于2007年美国次贷危机的本轮全球金融危机,对世界各国实体经济领域掀起强烈冲击波进而导致经济衰退:统计数据显示,2009年全球实际GDP同比增长率为-1.98%,是自1929-1933年世界经济大萧条以来最为严重的一次经济衰退。受其影响,2009年全球贸易流量也大幅受挫,衰退幅度竟高达23%之多。而随着全球经济的复苏,2010年全球实际GDP同比增长3.94%,与此同时,全球贸易流量也实现了 20.98%的同比增长。显然,相对于经济波动而言,全球贸易波动有些"过度",更为重要的是,计算结果显示,1990至2009年期间,全球出口贸易收入弹性长期均值为2.63,而本轮危机冲击期间2009年全球出口贸易收入弹性值却高达11.62,即危机冲击期间贸易调整显然超出了长期均衡贸易收入弹性水平。在经济全球化深入发展的大背景下,全球经济形成了"你中有我,我中有你"的相互依赖格局,作为经济全球化重要内容之一的国际贸易,其大幅波动必然对各国经济的健康发展带来不利影响。具体到中国而言,目前已经成为出口名列全球第一、进口名列全球第二的开放度很高的国家,对外贸易在中国的经济发展中仍然扮有重要角色。因此,对于危机冲击下全球贸易"过度"震荡的作用机制进行研究,对于我们正确认识贸易波动的本质特征及其对全球经济发展的含义,并进而采取有效的应对之策,无疑具有极其重要的理论意义和实践价值。不可否认,在危机冲击和经济波动期间,影响贸易波动的传统因素,例如需求疲软、生产开工不足、贸易保护主义抬头等,依然发挥着重要作用。但是,仅从传统影响因素的角度或者这些因素简单叠加的角度,是无法准确解释全球贸易"过度"震荡的。实际上,贸易的基础是分工,因此,研究和看待贸易波动问题,除了要对传统影响因素进行分析外,还必须深入到国际分工层面。通过对近20年来历次危机冲击下全球贸易波动的特征进行经验比较分析后发现,每次危机冲击下,贸易波动都存在过度波动现象,并且随着时间的演进,过度波动现象愈发明显。对贸易收入弹性值的分析进一步表明,其总体呈上升趋势,而危机冲击下的贸易收入弹性值较之于经济增长常态水平表现更高,或者出现负值。单从这一点来看,用贸易增长历来高于经济增长的事实也是很难准确解释和理解危机冲击下全球贸易过度波动现象的。经验比较的分析结果初步预示了分工演进对危机冲击下贸易波动的可能影响。对此,文章以国际生产分割为切入点,对危机冲击下全球贸易过度波动的机制进行理论探讨。研究表明,在生产分割的国际分工演进下,全球价值链得以不断延长和分解,中间需求环节越来越多,危机冲击下中间贸易品的存货调整效应,会透过全球价值链上的顺次中间需求产生不断的"放大"效应,辅之实体经济部门和虚拟经济部门的相互作用,最终结果必然表现为全球贸易的过度波动。通过建立误差修正模型,并纳入能够反映中间贸易品存货调整和国际生产分割专业化指数的替代变量,回归结果证实了上述理论假说的正确性。对本轮危机冲击下中国进、出口贸易波动的特征进行分析,结果表明,与全球贸易的过度波动具有表现形式和根本原因上的高度一致性,这一点无论是从中国贸易波动的总量特征来看,还是从进出口贸易波动的国别特征以及进出口贸易波动的产品类别特征来看,都是如此。对危机冲击下中国经济增长波动的贸易冲击效应进行分析,结果显示,进出口贸易的大幅震荡的确在一定程度上引发中国经济增长波动,但是其解释力并不高,或者说,危机冲击下中国经济增长波动的贸易冲击效应并非如我们想象的那么严重。对本轮危机冲击下全球贸易过度波动机制的研究,充分揭示了当前国际分工的演进已经使得各国经济之间相互依赖性增强,或者说,当代经济全球化红利不仅来源于贸易利益,也来源于国家间"协同生产"的收益,国家间的分工与贸易已从"互利性"向利益上的相互"依存性"转变。为此,倡导投资和贸易自由化,对于尽可能地缓解危机冲击下贸易波动,促进各国经济健康可持续发展,是必由之路。危机冲击后,经济全球化仍是大势所趋,也给中国带来了重要战略机遇,坚持对外开放基本国策不动摇、加快推进国内价值链构建、推进市场多元化发展、推动贸易自由区建设、拓展国际市场空间等,不仅有助于应对危机冲击,缓解可能的贸易波动幅度,而且也是进一步发挥对外贸易在中国经济发展中重要作用的必然选择。更多还原

【Abstract】 The global financial crisis originated from US Sub-prime crisis,brought great negative impacts to global economy.Statistics indicates that real world GDP in 2009 declined by 1.98%,which is the most serious global economic recession since 1929.Under this background,global trade declined greatly in 2009 by 23%.With recovery of global economy,real world GDP in 2010 grows by 3.94%,at the same time,global trade also realized growth rate of 20.98%.Obviously,global trade shows feature of over-adjustment compared economic volatility,and we can call this phenomena as "excess volatility of global trade".Under the background of economic globalization,the dependence among nations is becoming stronger and stronger.As one of important aspects of economic globalization,the great volatility of international trade will inevitably harm healthy development of global economy.As for China,at present,China has been the largest exporter in world market and its degree of open economy is very high,and international trade still plays an important role in China’s economic development.Therefore,to study the mechanism of excess volatility of global trade has important theoretical and practical implications,since it can helps us to understand correctly the essence of global trade excess volatility and its impact to global economy,based on which we can take effective counter measures.Admittedly,the traditional factor,like lumpy demand and trade protectionism,has important impacts on international trade during crisis shocks period.But,relying on traditional factors,we can’t explain global trade excess volatility correctly.In fact,the basis of trade is international specialization,so the correct explanation of global trade excess volatility must be based on international specialization.By empirical comparison of global trade volatility under crisis happened in recent 20 years,we find trade excess volatility is a common characteristics,and the more closer to present,the more obvious this characteristics.The further analysis on trade income elasticity indicates it has a trend of becoming larger and larger.And trade income elasticity during crisis shocks period is higher or is negative.This facts tell us clearly that we can’t depend on the fact that trade growth rate is higher than economic growth rate to understand trade excess volatility.In other words,empirical comparative analysis initially suggests that the pattern of international specialization has important impact on trade excess volatility under crisis shocks.Based on above analysis,from the point of international production fragmentation,this paper probe the mechanism of global trade excess volatility under crisis shocks.Results shows that,with the revolution of international production fragmentation,global value chain is extended and intermediate inputs needs become more and more,inventory of intermediate goods will magnify its impacts on international trade through intermediate inputs in succession on global value chain,be aided with Real economy and monetary economy interaction,global trade excess volatility is an inevitable phenomena eventually.By establishing Error Correction Model and bring into explanatory variables substituting inventory adjustment of intermediate goods and specialization index of international production fragmentation,regressive results support the above theoretical hypothesis.China’s foreign trade volatility under the global financial crisis shows the same characteristics as the global trade excessive volatility and the fundamental cause is also the same as we analyzed above.Analysis on the effects of trade shocks in China’s economic volatility during this global financial crisis period finds that,trade shocks can really contribute to economic volatility,but is impacts is not as much as we imagine.Research on the mechanism of excess volatility of global trade under the financial crisis reveal the fact that the evolution of international specialization has closed economic relations among nations,in other words,the current bonus of economic globalization not only comes from trade gains,but also comes for co-production gains among nations.Specialization and trade between nations has transformed from "mutually benefit" to gains’inter-dependence.For this reason,to advocate free trade and global investment is the only way to alleviate the trade excessive volatility and its great impacts on global economy.During post ciris era,the trend of economic globalization is irreversible,and this irreversible trend also bring great opportunities to China.To persist in the reform and opening-up policy,to promote export strategy of multi-markets,to promote establishment of domestic value chain,to promote establishment of free trade area and to develop and expand international market,are not only helpful in mitigating possible trade volatility under crisis shocks,but also necessary for further taking advantage of foreign trade well in promoting rapid and healthy development of China’s economy in future.更多还原