【作者】 李春香；

【导师】 钟水映；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2015， 博士

【摘要】 农村人口退出农村融入城市是现代经济社会发展中的必然现象,也是现代化过程中的必经阶段。农村人口从农村的彻底退出关系到农村生产要素的重新组合,农业现代化的实现以及农村发展必须以农业人口的减少为前提,大量存在的农业人口是不可能实现农村现代化的。农村人口的退出也关系到我国城镇化的健康发展,城镇大量流动人口不能转化为永久性居民并实现真正融合,表面看来是与户籍、就业、教育、医疗、社会保障制度相关,其实是与“给农民以土地,给市民以保障”的旧有思路与土地制度基础一脉相承。由于农村退出人口一头连接城市和工业,一头连接农村和农业,其能否有效退出也关系到我国“三化”协调发展。从上述意义上讲,本文研究所指的农村人口退出,是指农村人口的“完全退出”,即是具有农村集体经济组织成员资格和身份的成员,自愿将其凭借其身份取得的土地承包经营权和宅基地使用权等以退还、转让等其他形式让渡给所在农村集体经济组织或其他个人,从法律和经济联系上与原来所在农村社区脱离关系的行为。农村土地制度改革已经进行了长期的探索,但其目标是多元化的,如资源的有效利用、实现粮食生产量的最大化以保证食品的供给、提高农民收入、保持社会稳定等等。但其根本性的缺陷表现在至今未建立起土地改革-农村人口退出-城镇融合和农村现代化发展的有效机制。在城镇化、工业化快速发展过程中中国的农民正在分化,农村土地的功能也在变化,适应这种变化的农村土地制度改革迫在眉睫。因此,本文的着眼点在于完善土地制度改革,同时实现农村人口的有效退出。论文着力探讨了农村土地功能发生变化的背景下如何深化农村土地制度改革以促进农村人口的退出,内容主要分三大部分：第一部分,构建基于农村人口退出视角的人口流动模型,分析土地制度对农村人口退出的影响及农村土地功能的变化。第二部分析现行农村土地制度下农村人口的退出状况以及农村人口退出对土地制度改革的需求。第三部分提出促进农村人口退出的中国农村土地制度改革的对策建议,在比较中国主要农村土地制度创新特征和人口退出效果,对湖北案例进行实证分析的基础上,提出有利于农村人口退出的中国土地制度改革的原则、方向、政策建议、模式选择等。全文共6章,具体内容如下：第一章为导论,对论文研究概况及相关研究基础进行简要介绍。具体包括选题理由、研究意义、文献综述、研究思路、研究内容与方法以及论文创新之处。在对国外乡城人口迁移与农村土地利用、农业发展、农村土地制度、土地市场的相关文献进行综述的基础上,对国内农村人口退出、农地制度改革、农村人口退出与农地制度改革结合相关研究进行较为系统的梳理,并对研究现状进行简要述评。第二章为农村人口退出与农地制度的关系。首先分析了农村人口退出的内涵和必要性,接着分析农地制度以及农村人口退出与农地制度的关系。分析结果显示传统人口流动理论对中国农村人口退出缺乏解释力,本文从农村人口退出视角对托达罗模型再修正,得出农村土地制度是农村人口退出的主要制约因素。这种制约是随着农村土地对农村人口的功能发生变化而产生的,随着经济社会的发展和农民收入水平的变化,农村土地对农村人口来说不再是简单具有生产和保障功能,还具有财产功能,在高收入阶段,财产性功能需求快速增长并成为主要的新增需求。由于土地退出、交易环节制度缺失,影响了农村土地财产功能的实现,影响到农村人口的迁移决策,也使传统的人口流动理论在我国特殊制度背景下缺乏一定的解释力。第三章为现行农村土地制度下农村人口的退出状况。在总结现行农村土地制度(包括农用地和建设用地)的特征的基础上,进一步分析了中国农村人口退出现状及问题。估算结果显示1991-2012年农村人口年均退出850万左右,退出过程中存在农村半退出人口数量多,全退出人口数量较少,退出时财产不能有效变现,社会保障体系不完善,被动型退出占有一定比例等问题。最后分析了现行农村所有权制度、农村土地使用与流转制度、农村土地收益分配制度、农村土地管理制度对农村人口退出的适应性。第四章分析农村人口退出对农地制度改革的制度需求。以在湖北的问卷调查数据为样本,首先分析了农民工及家庭退出意愿,然后采用Logistic回归模型分析农民工退出的相关影响因素,最后分析了农民工退出相关土地政策需要。研究结果显示,近三分之一的农民工及家庭具有退出意愿,对农民工转户意愿产生最大影响的因素是是否在意退出补偿政策(即是否有退出补偿政策),其次是人均承包地面积,第三是承包地利用形式,第四是家乡是否有承包地荒废状况,第五是老家地理环境,第六是务工时间,第七是家庭现居住地。农民工所处的外部条件因素包括政策因素、承包地因素、家庭区位因素对其退出意愿产生显著的影响,而个人条件因素对其退出意愿产生的影响较弱。调查结果同时显示,农民工具有较强的承包地和宅基地流转意愿,在意土地流转收益与补偿,对土地流转“财产收益权”的实现需求强烈,部分农民工具有土地退出意愿与需求,对土地自由退出权的诉求较高。第五章为农地制度创新和农村人口退出的实证分析。改革开放以来主要的农村土地制度创新模式,以推进工业化、城镇化和规模经营为着眼点和落脚点,朝着市场化方向发展,相对清晰的界定了收益权,农民获得了部分增值收益,从发展趋势看,主要创新模式在一定程度上有趋同的趋势。研究结果显示,成都模式、重庆模式、浙江模式综合绩效最好,排在前三位,其人口退出效果也较好。但各种主要土地制度创新人口退出效果存在差异,“宅基地换住房,承包地换社保”、“集体建设用地置换城市建设用地指标”、“土地银行”、“土地市场”等模式人口退出效果很好,“土地承包长久不变”、“两田制”、“宅基地流转”模式有利于农村人口退出,“土地股份合作”、“集体建设用地入市”模式人口退出效果一般,长期来看人口退出效果较好。最后,在对31个省市区聚类分析的基础上对各类地区适用的农村人口退出的土地创新模式进行分析。第六章,提出促进农村人口退出的中国农村土地制度改革的对策与建议。现阶段农村土地制度改革应以完善农村土地集体所有制、推动农村人口退出为主要方向。通过完善土地相关立法、建立土地退出权、推进土地全面确权、引导和规范集体土地流转、建立健全农村社会保障制度,并引导各种人口退出的土地改革模式合理发展推进农村人口的顺利退出。最后提出保障农村人口退出后相关权益的保障措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rural population’ out of rural into city is an inevitable phenomenon of the development of modern economy and society, and also is an inevitable stage in the process of modernization. The rural population thoroughly exiting from the rural area is related to reorganization of agriculture’s production factors, because both the realization of agriculture modernization and rural development must based on the transfering of rural population, for too much rural population will have an negative impact on the rural modernization.The rural population exit is also related to the normal development of urbanization in China. Now, a large number of floating population in city can not become permanent residents and equal to the citizen. It appears to be related to the household registration system, employment system, education system, medical treatment system and social security system, but in fact it comes from the old ideas of "give land to the peasants, give social security to citizen " and the foundation of land system. At the same time, because the rural exit population are joining city and industry directly, joining the rural and agricultural directly, their effective exit is also related to the coordinative development of urbanization, industrialization and agricultural modernization. In view of the above mentioned facts, the exit of the rural population in this study is restricted to the "complete exit", namely a member of the rural collective economic organization with membership and identity, who volunteer to give up his land right which obtained by his identity through transferring or by other means to the rural collective economic organization or other individuals, and who will be independent from the original rural communities in law and economy.Long-term trials are carried out in reforming rural land system, but the reform goal is diversified, such as efficient use of resources, maximizing agricultural production to ensure food supply, improving the income of the farmers, to maintain social stability and so on. But its fundamental flaw is that the effective mechanism of "land reform-rural population exit-urban fusion and agriculture modernization" has not been established now. During the process of rapid urbanization and industrialization development chinese farmers are differentiating, at the same time, the functions of the rural land are changing, so the reform of rural land system adapting to such changes is imminent.Therefore, the focus of this dissertation is to perfect the land system reform, and to ensure the rural population exiting flawlessly. This dissertation mainly discusses how to deepen the rural land system reform to ensure the rural population exit flawlessly response to the rural land’s functions changing. The content including three parts:based on the analysis of rural population exit the first part constructs a population flow model to analyse the impact of land system on rural population exit and the change of land functions. The second part is to analyse the current situation of rural population exit under the rural land existing system, and to analyse the reform demand for the land system that rural exit population needed. The third part is the the suggestion of the rural land system reform in China designed to ensure the rural population exiting smothly. Based on the comparison of characteristics of main innovation modes of rural land system in China and their performance of population exit, and based on the empirical analysis for the cases of Hubei Province in China, the dissertation proposes principles, direction, policy recommendations and mode selection of rural land system reform. The dissertation consists of 6 chapters, the main contents as follows:The first chapter is the introduction, a brief introduction on the basic research situation and relevant research, including the grounds for the topic, research significance, literature review, research ideas, research content and method, also involved the innovation. Based on the foreign research review of rural-urban migration and rural land use, agricultural development, rural land system, land market, the domestic research related to exit of rural population, reform of rural land system, binding studies of them are reviewed, and a brief review on the research status is given.The second chapter is the research of relationship between the rural exiting population and the land system. This chapter first analyses the connotation and necessity of rural population exit, then analyses the rural land system and the relationship between land system and rural population exit. The analysis result shows the traditional theories of population shift are lack of explanatory power to exit phenomenon of rural population in China. The dissertation amends the Todaro mode again from the angle of rural population exit, and makes a conclusion that the rural land system is the main restrictive factor to the exit of rural population. This constraint produces along with functional change of rural land to the rural population.With the development of economy and society and the improvement of farmers’income level, for rural population the function of rural land is changing, for them the rural land has no longer simply appears to the function of production and safeguard, but also has the function of property. In the high-income stage of farmers, property demand rapidly grows and become a new main demand. Due to the deficiency of land exit and transaction system, the property function of land can’t realized and that affects the migration decision of rural population, finally makes the traditional population flow theories lack of explanatory power.The third chapter is the exit status of rural population under the existing rural land system. The features of the current rural land system (including agricultural land and construction sites)is introduced at first.Then the exit status and problems of rural population in China are analyzed. By estimation it can be seen that from the year of 1991-2012 about 8.5 million rural population exit annually. At the same time the exit exists following questions:the number of semi-exit population is large, while the number of the thoroughly exit population is very small; the property can not be effectively realized when exiting; the social security system is imperfect; the passive exit population occupies a great proportion. Finally, the adaptability of current rural land ownership system, rural land use and transfer system, rural land income-distribution system and rural land management system to the exit of rural population is analyzed.The fourth chapter analyses the rural population’s reform demand of rural land system when they exit. According to the sample data of questionnaire survey in Hubei Province, China, the exit intention of migrant workers and their families is given at first, then the factors which influence migrant workers’exit decision are discussed by using logistic regression model, the relevant land policy needs of migrant workers exit are analyzed at last. The results show that nearly 1/3 migrant workers and their families have quit intention. The greatest effect factor on migrant workers’exit intend is whether minding the compensation policy (i.e. whether the exit compensation policy existing), second is the contracted land area per capita, third is the use type of contracted land, fourth is the uncultivated state of the contracted land in the hometown, fifth is the geographical environment of hometown, sixth is the length of work time, seventh is the family’s current residence. Taken together, the external factors including policy factors, the contracted land factors, family location factors have significant effect on the migrant workers’exit decision, but the individual factors’affection is weak. The results also show that the migrant workers have obvious transfer willingness for contracted land and homestead, and they care about benefits and compensation of land circulation, and they also have strong demand to achieve income from land property right transferring. Some migrant workers have the exit intention of land, and they have higher appeal for the free exit right of land.The fifth chapter is empirical analysis of the innovation of rural land system and the exit of rural population. Since the reform and opening up the main innovation model of rural land system, aiming to promote industrialization, urbanization and scale operation, developing toward the direction of market, relatively clearly define the income right of land and farmers receive a part of value-added benefits. From the development trend, the main innovation modes have the trend of convergence to a certain extent. The results show the best comprehensive performance is Chengdu mode, the next is Chongqing mode, the third is Zhejiang mode, and their effect of rural population exit is also better. All kinds of main land system innovation modes in population exit effect are different. "Homestead for housing, the contracted land for social security", "collective construction land replacement city construction land index", "land bank", "land market" mode in population exit effect is very good, "land contract unchanged for a long time," "two-land system", "homestead circulation" mode is conducive to the exit of rural population, "land joint-stock cooperation", "collective construction land into the city" pattern in population exit effect is general, but their long-term exit effect is good. Finally, based on the cluster analysis results of 31 provinces’data, the land innovation modes advancing the exit of the rural population, which apply to various areas, are analyzed.The last chapter is the suggestion of rural land system reform to promote rural population exit in China. At this stage the goal of the reform of rural land system should be improving the collective ownership system and promoting the exit of rural population. To push the exit of rural population some reforms should be adopted, including perfecting the relevant legislation, establishing the exit right of land, promoting land ownership confirmed on a full scale, guiding and regulating the circulation of collective land, building a sound social security system in rural areas, guiding all kinds of land reform modes benefiting the exit to develop reasonablely. Finally, some measures to protect migrant workers’ related interests after their exit are put forward.更多还原