【作者】 李中；

【导师】 周勤；

【作者基本信息】 东南大学 ， 产业经济学， 2015， 博士

【摘要】 经济竞争归根到底是产业竞争,国家整体经济竞争力关键取决于其主要产业国际竞争力的强弱。在经济全球化和知识经济形成的今天,服务业特别是知识密集型服务业逐渐成为了发达国家的支柱型产业,一个国家(地区)的服务业发展水平也直接决定该国(地区)的经济发展水平的高低。改革开放以来,我国产业结构调整和优化的步伐逐渐加快,经济建设取得显著成效,综合国力大大增强。随着经济全球化进程的加快,产业结构调整和优化进入一个新的历史阶段。今后二三十年,进行产业结构调整和优化,将成为中国经济发展的主线。交通基础设施作为一种社会先行资本,更是成为实现经济发展的重要先决条件。随着交通技术的不断发展,越来越多新型的交通工具被研发使用。高速铁路作为一种高速、环保的交通工具受到了各国政府的青睐,未来几年我国高速铁路的发展将进入全面收获期。不同于西方发达国家的建造模式,我国高速铁路的建造主要通过对原有铁路技术与设施改进而成(如京沪线和京九线),换句话说我国铁路发展是遵循一条铁路技术演进的路线。本文正是基于中国全面推进高速铁路建设和积极有效地推动产业结构升级两方面考虑,探索中国在交通基础设施的技术演进背景下的产业结构升级问题。理论上本文首先归纳交通基础设施的两个经济学特征：网络性和知识溢出性,引申出交通基础设施的技术演进与知识溢出性之间的关系,认为交通基础设施的技术演进提高城市通达性,加快隐性知识的溢出,从而建立交通基础设施的技术演进—知识溢出—产业结构升级的逻辑思路。在此基础上,以产品内分工理论为基本框架,论文构建交通基础设施技术演进与产业结构的理论模型,并得出了两个命题：第一、技术演进缩短城市间的旅行时间,加快地区间知识溢出,降低了该地区的可变生产成本,促进技术服务由发达地区转移至落后地区生产,沿线城市的产业结构水平得到进一步提高。第二、相对通达性也是产业结构水平高低的关键因素,相对通达性越高的地区,产业结构水平也就越高。实证上,本文将2007年沪宁杭动车组的开通视为一次自然实验,选取了泛长三角地区的26个城市的面板数据,并将样本城市分为两组：实验组和控制组,使用倍差法分析和探讨了2003-2011年沪宁杭动车组开通对城市产业结构的影响。实证结果表明2007年沪宁杭动车组的开通有效地促进了沿途站点地区产业结构升级,验证了本文的命题。相对通达性也是长三角各城市产业结构水平高低的关键因素,相对通达性越高的地区,产业结构水平也就越高。此外,我们还分行业考察沪宁杭动车组开通促进产业结构升级的影响效果,回归结果显示沪宁杭动车组开通仅仅促进金融业产业份额的提高,而对其他行业产业份额提高作用不明显。这是因为行业特征差异对溢出知识的吸收能力产生一定影响,技术差异的扩大会给企业的学习和模仿行为带来更多的困难,因此会对知识溢出效应的产生形成一定的阻碍,从而导致各行业发展的不平衡性。从城市群视角来看,产业结构升级内涵不仅包括成员城市产业部门的演进变化,还包含了成员城市在相互作用的基础上所形成的专业化分工关系(城市群产业结构)。因此,本文还考察了交通基础设施的技术演进对城市群产业结构优化升级的作用机理。通过对数理模型的扩展分析,我们认为交通基础设施的技术演进不仅可以促进沿线城市产业结构升级,还能够促进沿线城市专业化水平的提高。在得到理论命题之后,本文采用了长三角26个地级以上城市的面板数据进行了实证分析,实证结果证实了沪宁杭动车组开通有效地促进沿线城市专业化水平的提高,长三角城市群产业结构得到优化升级。最后,根据前文的研究成果,本文分析了技术演进背景下阻碍长三角城市群产业结构升级的影响因素,并从城市产业结构升级和城市群产业结构优化升级两方面提出出相应的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Economic competition in the final analysis is industrial competition. Country’s overall economic competitiveness depends greatly on international competitiveness of its major industry. Following the trend of the economic globalization and knowledge economy, service became the foundational industry of our society. Since China’s reform and opening up, its industrial structure adjustment and optimization have been accelerated and economic development achieved remarkable results with overall national strength increasing greatly.As a social capital, transportation infrastructure is an important prerequisite that obtains economic development.Along with the constant development of transportation technology, more and more new vechiles were researched and put into practice. High-speed railway as a high-speed and energy-efficient vechile, was favored by the government of each country. In the next few years, our country will enter a period of harvest.Being from the construction mode of developed countries, our country’s model is that the technology and infrastructure existed was improved gradually such as Beijing-Shanghai Railway and Beijing-Kowloon Railway. In other words, our country follows the line that the technology evolves gradually. Combining the building of high-speed railway and industrial structure upgrading, the paper will explore how to upgrade the industrial structure of china and solve the problem that whether the technological evolution of transportation infrastructure could promote industrial structure upgrading.Theortically, this paper firstly summarizes the two economic characteristics of transportation infrastructure:network and knowledge spillover. They raises the relationships between technological evolution of transportation infrastructure and knowledge spillovers. We consider that the economics implication of the opening of high-speed railway will raiseand speed up the tacit knowledge spillover. Finally combining with relationship between the knowledge spillover and the industrial structure, this paper proposes technological evolution of transportation infrastructure—knowledge spillover—industrial structure upgrading. Baseing on the theory of intra-product specialzation, this paper set up the theoretical model of the transport infrastructure development and industrial structure. It concluded two important propositions. Proposition 1:technological evolution of transport infrastructure will short the travelling time among cities, accelerate knowledge spillover and reduce variable cost, which promote technical services transferring from developed area to developing area. Therefore, we make a conclusion that industrial structure of the cities connecting transportation infrastructure will be promoted. Proposition 2:The relative accessibility of the region is higher, the level of industrial structure is higher.Empirically, the paper using the data of 26 cities of Yangtze River Delta region in 2003-2011, estimates dynamic panel data model. The empirical results shows Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou multiple unit can promote local industrial structure upgrading. Therefore, the proposition of the paper is proved. We find relative accessibility is an important influencing factor. The relative accessibility is an important factor deciding the level of industrial structure.The relative accessibility of the city is higher, the level of industrial structure is higher. Additionally, we will investigate the effect what Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou multiple promoted local industrial structure upgrading according division of industries. The empirical results shows the opening of Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou multiple unit just promoted the industry share of finance increasing, the industry share of the other industries not remarkable. Because the difference of industrial characteristics will impact absorbing capacity of knowledge. Technical gap will bring more difficult for the behavior of learning and imitation, which hindered absorbing knowledge spillovers and leaded to imbalanced development of the industry.From the perspective of urban system, the intension of industrial structure upgrading includes not only evolution of industrial sector of the menber cities but regional division of labor relationship-industrial strucutre of urban system. Basing on this, our paper investigate the mechanism about which technological evolution of transportation infrastructure impact on industrial structure of urban system. According to the extension analysis of the above model, we consider that technological evolution of transportation infrastructure not only could promote industrial structure upgrading but raise the level of specialization. After the theoretical theorem was achieved, our paper captures data of Yangtze Delta megalopolis for empirical analysis. Empirical result reveals that the opening of Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou multiple unit promote industrial strucutre of urban system of the Yangtze delta upgrading.Finally, According to the above research results, our paper analyse the influences hindering industrial structure of Yangtze delata upgrading. Some suggestion are given from industrial structure of member upgrading and industrial structure of urban system upgrading.更多还原