【作者】 戴新颖；

【导师】 朱学义；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2015， 博士

【摘要】 中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家,目前已经成为世界上二氧化碳排放量最大的国家,在2009年12月哥本哈根气候变化会议上,中国政府承诺:“到2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%-45%的目标”,在这样的背景下,中国碳减排的压力巨大。我国能源结构以煤为主,煤炭的生产和消费都占到全部一次性能源的70%左右,我国对于煤炭这种高碳化石能源的依赖性,将在未来很长一段时间内无法改变。因此,对于我国来说,合理的利用煤炭资源,分析煤炭碳排放的影响因素以减少煤炭资源的碳排放,是我国实现碳减排目标面临的现实问题。论文在介绍了我国能源消费、碳排放、煤炭消费及煤炭碳排放的基础上,对基本Kaya理论进行了扩展,将该理论应用于煤炭碳排放的影响因素的分解,提出了影响煤炭碳排放量的五个影响因素,包括煤炭碳排放因子、能源结构、能源的消费强度、人均国内生产总值及人口规模,在此基础上进一步对我国第一、二、三产业煤炭碳排放量进行因素分解,提出了影响我国各产业煤炭碳排放的六个影响因素。针对Kaya理论分析所提出的影响我国煤炭碳排放的影响因素,分析了各个影响因素变量对我国煤炭碳排放的影响。采用实证分析的方法分析经济发展、人口规模、能源结构因素与我国煤炭碳排放之间的长期稳定的协整关系,用规范分析的方法分析了煤炭碳排放强度、产业结构对于煤炭碳排放的影响,研究发现我国经济发展与我国煤炭碳排放之间存在单向的因果关系和长期稳定的协整关系,发现人口数量、能源结构与煤炭碳排放没有协整关系,但有因果关系,根据生产函数理论和相关文献,论文提出了影响我国煤炭碳排放量的一些其他影响因素,并运用实证分析的方法研究了城市化、教育及科研投入、人均耗电量、煤炭价格等因素与我国煤炭碳排放量之间的存在的因果关系和协整关系,并采用规范分析的方法分析煤炭转换效率对我国煤炭碳排放量的影响。研究表明,人均耗电量与我国碳排放之间存在双向的因果关系,并存在长期稳定的协整关系。通过对教育科研投入、城市化程度与煤炭碳排放进行的多变量协整分析,发现三者之间存在协整关系,教育科研投入与煤炭碳排放之间是反向的关系,而城市化增长速度对煤炭碳排放则是正向的影响,煤炭价格与煤炭碳排放有单向的因果关系。针对前文所分析的影响煤炭碳排放的各种因素,建立了因子分析模型,提取了三个主因子,进行因子回归分析的基础上,提出了影响我国煤炭碳排放的主要因素为基础经济因素和能源技术因素。基于主因子分析中提取的主因子,进一步细分为6个潜变量,构建了我国煤炭碳排放影响因素的结构方程模型,分析了各个因素对我国煤炭碳排放的影响程度和影响路径,以及各个影响因素之间的相互影响的影响程度和影响路径情况。建立了VAR模型分析影响我国煤炭碳排放量的人均国内生产总值、能源结构等6个主要因素,分析了各个因素对我国煤炭碳排放量的长期影响和短期响应情况,分析各个因素对煤炭碳排放的方差贡献水平。基于煤炭价格这一影响因素,提出了在煤炭采选业进行碳排放内部化,将碳排放成本内部化进入原煤的成本,以市场价格机制促进煤炭资源的优化配置。基于以上实证研究结论,从煤炭碳减排的角度,有针对性的提出了煤炭碳减排对策和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Our country’s energy strucuture is dominated by coal,and the production and consumption of coal both accounts for about 70% of the total one-off resource. Moreover, the situation of the dependence on the coal which is a fossil energy with high level of the carbon for our country, will not be changed for a long time. So how to make better use of coal resources to reduce coal carbon emissions on the analysis of the influence factors of coal carbon emissions is the real problem faced by our country.On the basis of introducing the energy consumption, carbon emission,coal consumption and carbon emission of coal,the thesis makes extensions on the basic Kaya theory and applies this theory to the analysis of affecting factors of coal carbon emission in China and come up with five influential factors of the coal carbon emissions in our country,which include coal emissions factor, energy structure,intensity of energy consumption, average gross domestic product and population size. Based on this, it further analyzes the coal carbon emissions in the three main industries of our country and puts forward six affecting factors that affect the coal carbon emissions in each industry. This paper analyses the influence of the KAYA affecting factors variables on coal carbon emissions of our country. To analyze the long-term stable cointegration relationship between the factors of economic development, population scale, energy structure of our country and coal carbon emissions using empirical analysis methods, To analyze the influence of carbon intensity, industrial structure to the coal carbon emissions with the method of normative analysis methods, the study found that there has one-way causal relationship and long-term stable cointegration relationship between carbon emissions and the economic development of our country and our country, found that there is no co-integration relationship between population, energy structure and coal carbon, but there is causal relationship.In terms of relevant documents and on the basis of production function, the thesis proposes some other extension influence factors that affect the coal carbon discharge and studies the influential factors of coal carbon discharge using the method of combining empirical analyzing approach and normative analyzing approach.The thesis establishes the factor analysis model in view of the above analysis of various influence factors of coal carbon discharge, and put forward, on the basis of factor regression analysis of the three main factors, it put forward the main factors influencing the coal carbon emissions in China. That is the basic economic factor, energy efficiency technology factor and energy economic structure factor. Based on the factor analysis to extract the main factors, and further subdivided into six latent variables, constructs structural equation model of the influence factor of the coal carbon emissions, analyzes the influence degree and path of the various factors in our country on the coal carbon emissions, and the interaction influence degree and path of the various influencing factors. VAR model is established to analyze the six main factors affecting our country’s coal carbon emissions such as the energy structure,per capita gross domestic product(GDP), analyzes the situation of the various factors of coal carbon emissions on the long-term impact and short-term response, analyzes on the coal carbon variance contribution level of various factors.Based on the impact factors of coal prices,it puts forward the internalization of carbon emissions in coal mining industry, make the cost of the coal carbon emissions internalization, To promote the optimized allocation of coal resources though the market price mechanism,.Based on the above empirical study conclusion, countermeasures and suggestions targeted on coal carbon reduction are put forward from the angle of the coal carbon reduction.更多还原