【作者】 任宪强；

【导师】 刘建一；

【作者基本信息】 江苏大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【副题名】以淄博市为例

【摘要】 城市作为人口和生产活动的集聚中心,在国民经济和社会发展中占有极为重要的地位。随着我国城市化进程的加快,产生了一系列世界各国先后出现的“城市病”问题,如城市人口激增、环境污染、能源短缺、交通拥挤等。在“摊大饼”式的城市格局中最为突出的问题是交通拥堵,以交通拥堵为代表的交通问题已成为困扰城市发展的主要障碍之一。在交通拥堵等城市问题日益严重的背景下,逐步形成了—种新的城市形态——组群城市。随着我国城市化进程的日益加快,组群城市在我国国民经济中的地位越来越突出,已经成为城市化发展的新特点。这种布局模式在有效避免城市“摊大饼”式无序蔓延的同时,亦有其制约发展的交通问题。因此,在当前“组群热”形势下,针对组群特色城市进行交通拥堵一体化对策研究显得尤为重要。本文主要从组群城市形态特征出发,运用一体化的对策研究方法,以遵循交通供求平衡的思路来解决组群城市的交通拥堵问题。分析组群城市的交通特性,应用交通需求管理策略(TDM)和公交引导发展战略(TOD)来进行交通管理理论和方法研究,并引入系统动力学理论,构建了城市交通管理的TDM-TOD联合策略模型,分析其中的主要反馈关系；采用交通规划软件TransCAD和仿真建模工具VISSIM相结合的方法来对其典型冲突区域的交通状况进行仿真和优化,在此基础上研究如何引导交通系统的可持续、和谐发展,提高中心城区的核心地位和对外辐射能力,以实现组群城市的和谐发展。本文的主要内容及贡献有：1.研究了城市形态及其与交通系统的互动关系,分析了城市开发过程中的交通需求特点与交通供给目标,探讨了城市交通与土地利用的关联性；针对我国城市的发展现状,界定了组群城市的概念,分析了国内外典型组群城市(东京、巴黎、伦敦淄博、大庆、武汉、唐山等)的城市形态演变过程,探讨了组群城市的交通特性。2.引用了交通需求管理(TDM)和公交引导发展战略(TOD)来对组群城市进行交通管理,引入系统动力学思想,以交通供需均衡为目标,以公共交通乘坐率最大、公共交通覆盖率最大及新开发环境影响最小为约束条件,提出了基于TDM-TOD联合策略的城市交通管理理论模型,建立了数学表述模型,并分析了其中的反馈关系环。3.根据构建的城市交通管理TDM-TOD联合策略的有关理论方法,选取我国典型组群城市——淄博市为实证分析对象,来研究组群特色城市的交通管理TDM-TOD联合策略的应用案例,研究内容涉及交通结构优化模型、公交引导发展战略、道路网建设规划、组群城市中心城区的交叉口优化、中心城区的单向交通组织等内容,最后提出了淄博市交通管理的相关思路：寻求解决城市交通拥堵问题的对策,绝不能仅局限于城市交通系统本身,而必须站在城市规划和建设的角度和高度来分析研究,力求全面系统地解决交通拥堵问题。4.针对城市交通管理TDM-TOD联合策略的利用效益分析问题,提出了直接效益和间接效益的分析指标,讨论了减少误乘损失、票价降低、出行时间节约、公交分担率提高、运输费用成本节约及减少拥堵所产生的效益。以淄博市为例,进行了案例分析,计算结果表明城市交通管理TDM-TOD联合策略实施所产生的效益显著。目前,规划发展组群城市己成为城市经济社会发展的主导策略之一,实证研究结果表明本文建立的城市交通管理TDM-TOD联合策略可较好地解决城市交通发展过程中遇到的交通需求管理、公交发展政策支持及相关规划管理问题。本文以组群城市为理论研究出发点,在城市交通特征分析、交通需求管理、公交引导发展战略应用及管理策略的数学模型表述等方面有所创新,以组群城市——淄博市为实证分析对象,系统研究了基于TDM-TOD联合策略的城市交通管理理论与方法的应用成效,相关研究成果对其它形态城市同样具有一定借鉴和参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a gathering center of population and productive activities, urban plays an important role in national economic and social development. With the acceleration of urbanization, series of "urban diseases" also occurred in China, such as population surge, environment pollution, energy shortage, traffic congestion etc, which have been all around the world. Among them, traffic congestion is the most prominent problem under "the pie" urban pattern, and with it as a representative, traffic problem has become a major obstacle to urban development. Under this background, a new "group city" pattern has formed gradually, and as a new feature of world’s urbanization, it holds a more significant position in Chinese national economic. The group city pattern can avoid not only the disorder spread of "the pie", but the traffic problems that hinder urban from developing. Thus, in this "residential group hot" situation, it’s especially important and necessary to make an integrated game study on traffic congestion of group city.Based on traffic congestion statue of group city, this paper started from their layout structure, and then solved urban traffic congestion by integrated game research methods, following the idea that traffic supply and demand comes to a balance. So, first, it made an analysis on mechanism of urban traffic congestion, taking TDM and TOD to traffic management studies. Then the traffic conditions of typical conflict zones were simulated and optimized by combining TransCAD with VISSIM; after that, a father study was made on how to lead transportation systems to an sustainable and harmonious development, in order to raise central districts’core position and outward ability to achieve the harmonious development of city group. And the main contents were as follows:1. It studies the dynamic relation between urban spatial and transportation system, and analyzes the features of transportation supply-demand in newly developed regions, so as to discuss the relationship of urban transportation and land use mode. It analyzes urban evolution mechanism to define the formation process and background, then the definition of group city is put forward. The evolving characteristics of typical cities, such as Tokyo, Paris, London, Zibo, Daqing, Wuhan, and Tangshan, etc, are analyzed in detail. In final, traffic features of group city are addressed, compared with common cities. 2. It quotes TDM and TOD to make traffic management and plan for group city. This model considers the nearly equality between transportation supply and demand as the optimization object as well the maximum of public transit using rate & covering area and the minimum of the effect on environment in newly developed regions as the limited input, an integrated strategy combining TDM-TOD is performed to manage the urban daily traffic. The mathematical expression for this integrated strategy is developed as well and some feedback relation is addressed.3. Based on relevant theories, it researched on traffic demand management, bus priority development strategies, road network construction plans, central area intersection optimization and one-way traffic organization of Zibo city, which has the characteristic of group city. It proposed some new ideas to solve traffic management problem of group city, such as adjusting urban development structure, strengthening urban infrastructure construction, optimizing urban transportation structure, improving urban traffic management level, underlining transportation plan between group city etc. and then draw the conclusion:If we want to solve traffic problem comprehensively and scientifically, we couldn’t just confine it to urban transportation systems itself, but analyze and study it from the urban construction perspective.4. For the benefit evaluation of such an integrated strategy, we develop some quantitative models to assess its direct and indirect benefit variables, including eliminating false transit using, decreasing expense on transit, decreasing travel time, increasing transit using rate, and decreasing congestion, etc. Taking Zibo as an application example, the experimental results prove its effectiveness in transportation management.Group development has become the dominant strategy in almost China’s cities, a various of practices and research experience in this dissertation have indicated that the proposed TDM-TOD joint strategy can solve the congestion problem in traffic demand management, public policy support, and some other issues. This dissertation takes Zibo as the typical group city, the TDM-TOD joint strategy is performed to operate and manage the urban traffic and transportation in detail, and the achievements provides some effective references for common cities in China.更多还原