【作者】 杨文丽；

【导师】 李晓钟； 周惠明；

【作者基本信息】 江南大学 ， 食品贸易与文化， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 中国是世界第二大饮料生产国，饮料总产量从2000年的0.149亿吨增长到2013年的1.49亿吨，年均增长率高达19.37%，成为中国传统产业中最具经济潜力的行业之一。中国饮料出口增长迅猛，出口额从2000年的8.54亿美元增长到2013年的34.79亿美元，年均增长率达9%，接近同期国民经济平均增长水平，贸易比较利益增长潜力巨大。尽管饮料产业对中国经济发展发挥着积极的推动作用，但研究经济增长问题的国内经济学家们却未能给予较多的关注，国家政策也往往倾向于高新技术产业和钢铁、汽车等资本密集型产业，缺乏完善的相应措施来发展传统饮料产业。事实上，依要素密集度划分产业属于一个相对范畴。在不同的社会经济发展阶段，随着技术的进步和资本的积累，技术和资本的密集度不断提高，传统产业也会逐步从原有的产业中分化出去，演化为知识密集型或资本密集型产业。中国饮料产业的发展也将遵循这一轨迹。那么，纠正那些将饮料产业始终视为以资源和劳动为主要生产要素的传统产业的教条式认识，对于准确把握中国饮料生产和贸易的经济潜力具有重要意义。有鉴于此，论文旨在国内产业结构调整与发展的大背景下，基于中国饮料贸易的经验数据，运用贸易理论，特别是动态比较优势理论来研究贸易比较利益增进问题。论文的主要研究结论是：（1）中国饮料贸易比较利益增进的焦点问题，不在于是发展劳动密集型产业还是发展资本密集型和知识密集型产业，而是如何促进比较优势的提升与发展。中国当前必须跳出静态比较优势的固有思维模式，大力发展动态比较优势，通过比较优势的提升，推动传统饮料产业的升级，实现贸易比较利益的增进。（2）比较优势绝非仅源于国家间生产率的差异，也非仅源于国家间要素禀赋的不同，结合近现代国际贸易理论的发展，论文认为供给、需求与制度彼此配合，从多层次共同展开，从多角度相互作用，共同推动了比较优势的动态提升。也就是说，比较优势的提升应当是合力的结果。这种合力不仅依赖供给和需求机制的有效结合，也离不开市场和政府的密切合作。由此可以得出结论，在贸易比较利益增进问题上，同样存在着如何处理供给与需求、市场机制与政府干预的关系问题。（3）论文试图建立一个较为科学合理的、能够全面解释其作用机理的饮料出口比较利益增进模型，并将该模型命名为起飞模型。在起飞模型中，航线的设计按由基本要素推动阶段到投资推动阶段，再到创新推动阶段的动态过程进行设定，不同阶段的贸易比较利益来源有所不同；供给优势和需求优势相互配合，犹如飞机之两翼，对中国传统饮料行业这架巨型飞机产生巨大的向上作用力，为中国饮料贸易比较利益增进的实现提供了可能；制度优势犹如飞机之发动机，能够产生巨大的向前推动力，推动中国饮料贸易比较利益增进的真正实现。（4）当前，中国饮料出口以资本和技术含量较低的初级产品为主，饮料产业的发展水平仍然较低，影响了比较利益的增进。随着中国原有比较优势在数量上的弱化和在质量上的提升，中国饮料的比较优势部门也在发生更为复杂的变动，大部分饮料产业部门正处在不断累积的变化过程中。当前决定比较优势的主要因素不再是要素价格等成本因素，在全球产业链分工体系中所处的环节、企业对利润的控制以及国际市场需求规模的扩大和市场结构的改善，正在成为决定比较优势乃至比较利益的重中之重。与此同时，由于不熟悉国际规则，缺乏开拓国际市场的能力和经验，面对国际市场日益激烈的竞争，中国饮料出口频频遭遇国外贸易壁垒的冲击，再加上中国现有制度的不完善，加剧了近年来中国饮料出口增长的减缓趋势。（5）在构建符合中国饮料出口现实的比较利益增进战略时，应当结合中国饮料出口发展三个阶段的不同特点，从供给、需求和制度三个方面共同设计。在基本要素推动阶段，应继续发挥中国传统比较优势，并认识到基于静态比较优势发展模式的不足，制度供给以消除不公平竞争影响为主；在投资推动阶段，应从要素积累、规模经济提升、市场需求开拓以及制度导向等方面，推动比较优势的动态提升；在创新推动阶段，应改变长期依赖价格竞争的比较利益增进策略，转向提升产品技术密集度、提高要素效率、改善市场需求性质的新思路，同时注意制度供给的果断、有远见和高技巧。论文创造性的研究是：将国际贸易理论研究的丰硕成果与具体行业亟待解决的贸易比较利益增进问题有效结合，并融入到中国产业调整和发展的大背景中，构建了起飞模型，将关注焦点集中在动态比较利益的获取上，使比较利益增进问题的研究更深入、更具有现实意义；强调对比较利益来源的系统研究，主张比较利益增进的焦点在于比较优势的提升，比较优势的提升应当是市场供求机制和政府干预合力的结果，同时也离不开供给与需求的共同作用，以确保研究结论的科学系和完整性；考虑到当前国内和国际市场已融合成一个供需紧密结合的大市场，论文除对国际市场需求进行实证研究外，还重点讨论了国内市场需求在比较利益增进中的重要作用，并关注到技术对比较利益增进的重要意义，力图深化和完善贸易需求理论这一前沿问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is the second largest beverage producter in world. The gross output of beverage ofChina has amounted from14908000tons in2000to1.2tons in2011, at an increase of20.7%per year. Beverage industry has become one of the fastest growing industries in China, andalso is one of the most potential industries in China’s traditional industries. China’s beveragetrade mushroomed in recent years. Export value has amounted from$854000000in2000to$3196000000in2011, at an increase of3.74folds, and at an increase of25.08%per year.Beverage export has raced ahead of China’s economic growth, and the potential for growth isstaggering. Although beverage industry is playing an active role in China’s economy, domesticeconomists who study economic growth always ignore the role, and national policise alsotend to high-tech industries and capital-intensive industries. Perfect corresponding measuresfor improving the traditional beverage industry are short in China. In fact, dividing industriesaccording to factor-intensity is a relative category. In different stages of social and economicdevelopment, with the development of technology and the accumulation of capital, theintensity of technology and capital is increasing, and traditional industries gradually split offfrom old industries, evolve into knowledge-intensive and capital-intensive industries. Thedevelopment of China’s beverage industry will follow the same trajectory. Then correcting thedogmatic interpretation that the beverage industry is a traditional resource-intensity andlabor-intensity industry, will be important to grasp the economic potential of China’s beverageindustry. Thus this paper is aimed at studying on comparative profit advance with thedomestic industrial structure adjustment based on empirical data of China’s beverage tradethrough the trade theory.The main conclusions of this paper are:(1) The focus of advancing the comparativeprofit of China’s beverage trade is not the development of labor-intensive industry or thedevelopment of capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive industries, but on promotion anddevelopment of the comparative advantage. Currently, China should change the traditionalthinking model of the static comparative advantage, make great efforts to promote anddevelop dynamic comparative advantage, and then promote the upgradation of the traditionalbeverage industry and improve the comparative profit.(2) The improvement of thecomparative advantage should be the results of all kinds of cooperation. It not only dependson the efficient combination of supply and demand mechanism, but also requires the closecollaboration of the market and government. Will the government intervention realize theimprovement of the comparative advantage, if the market supply and demand mechanism does not effectively do? Obviously, the improvement of comparative profit requires solvingthe relationship between supply and demand, and between market mechanism andgovernment intervention. Therefore, the comparative advantage is not just because of thedifference of national productivity, or that of national factor endowment. Based on thedevelopment of the modern international trade theory, it is suggested that the supply, demand,and institution should be combined with multiple-level and multiple-angle interreactions, topromote the dynamic development of comparative advantage.(3) In this article, authors try toconstruct a scientific and reasonable model, named―take-off‖model, which maycomprehensively explain the mechanism of comparative profit improvement of beverageexport. In this model, the―flight‖is dynamically designed from the stage of basic elementpromotion to that of investment promotion, then to that of innovation promotion, and thesource of comparative profit of the trade depends on the stage; the supply advantage anddemand advantage work in coordinaton just as the two―wings‖, and then it remarkablyproduces a upward impetus to promote the huge―plane‖of the traditional China’s beverageindustry, strongly supports the―take-off‖and soaring of the―plane‖toward internationalmarkets, and thus raises the possibility to realize the improvement of the comparative profit ofChina’s beverage trade; the institution advantage may produce a huge forward impetus just as―motor‖of the―plane‖, to realize the―take-off‖of China’s beverage industry and theimprovement of the comparative profit of China’s beverage trade.(4) Currently, the China’sbeverage export mainly depends on the primary products with lower capital content andtechnical content, the development level of the beverage industry is still low, and thus theacquirement of the comparative profit is inhibited. China’s beverage department withcomparative advantage has been changing complicatedly, due to the quantitative reduction butqualitative increase of the initial Chinese comparative advantage. Majority of the departmentsof beverage industry is in a changing period with constant accumulation. Currently, the keyfactors of comparative advantage are no longer the cost factors such as factor price. It alsoembodies more importantly at what stage the comparative advantage in the division system ofglobal industrial chain, the extent that enterprises’ control over the profits, the expansion ofthe dimensions of demand in the international market, and the improvement degree of themarket structure. Meanwhile, being unfamiliar with global rules, lacking of skills andexperience to increase international markets, the export of China’s beverage frequentlyencountered foreign trade barriers in the face of increasingly fierce competition ininternational markets. In addition, Chinese existing institutions’ shortcoming intensifies theslowing down of the increase of the China’s beverage export in recent years.(5) Theconstructed strategy of the improvement of comparative profit in China’s beverage tradeshould be based on the three stages of the development of China’s beverage trade, anddesigned according to supply, demand and state institution. Firstly, at the stage of basic element promotion, the current comparative advantage in China still remains the foundationof the improvement of the comparative profit in beverage trade. Moreover, this strategyconstruction will be convinced of the deficiency of the development pattern based on staticcomparative advantage. And state institution supply should mainly develop export advantageand resist unfair competition. Secondly, at the stage of investment promotion, because ofcompatibility with dynamics of comparative advantage and economic growth, we shouldpositively promote the elements accumulation, which will be a new variables to realize theenhancement of the trade comparative profit, and increase of market demand will be abacking of that. Besides, the institution should design in favor of capital influx remains inoptimal production sectors of beverage. Thirdly, at the stage of innovation promotion, longrelied on comparative profit improvement strategy of price competition is unsustainable. Wethink the improvement of trade comparative profit should based on the advancement ofintensive product technology and elements productivity, and thus motivates improvement ofthe nature of market demand, meanwhile, state institution supply should be guaranteeddecisive, far-sighted and of high level of skills.The innovation of this research are that, firstly, we tried to break through the frameworkof traditional trade theories, combined the strategy of China’s beverage export with domesticindustrial adjustment and development, constructed the "take-off" model to focus on theimprovement of comparative advantage, studied further on the comparative profit advance;secondly, we emphasised that the focus of advancing comparative profit is the promotion ofcomparative advantage, which is the result of the cooperation of market mechanism andgovernment interference, also depends on the joint action of supply and demand mechanism,ensured the integrity and scientificity of research conclusions; thirdly, given the fuse of homemarket and world market, we not only put the world market demand into empirical research,but also studied on the role of home market, paid attention to the promotion of thchnical tocomparative advantage, tried to make the trade demand theory deepen and perfect.更多还原