【作者】 李辉；

【导师】 于潇；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪60年代以来，经济社会发展对资源环境造成的压力日益增大，受其约束越来越明显。可持续发展理念应运而生，得到全球各国家和地区认可，可持续发展战略在越来越多的地区得到实施。区域自然条件与发展水平的差异导致不同区域实施可持续发展战略的不同，区域可持续发展水平科学测评是实施可持续发展战略的前提。广东省作为我国改革开放的排头兵，经济总量实现跨越式增长，同时，资源能源过度消耗导致自然环境质量下降，面临的生态环境挑战越来越严峻。在当今建设生态文明的大背景下，两型社会建设与低碳经济兴起给广东可持续发展提出新的要求。广东该如何实施可持续发展战略，践行科学发展，是一个新的时代命题，也是广东迎接挑战改革再出发的起点。本研究系统总结广东经济社会发展历程，分析资源利用与环境变化轨迹，指出其可持续发展面临的总体态势。采用能值改进生态足迹理论方法，重新构建可持续发展协调度评价指标体系，利用基于主成分分析法的协调度模型，分别对广东经济社会发展的生态承载力情况及经济、社会与资源环境复合系统及其内部子系统协调发展水平进行测评，从而有针对性提出可持续发展调控策略。本研究可为广东省实施可持续发展战略提供理论指导，同时对我国其它地区的可持续发展也有理论借鉴意义。广东省改革开放先行一步，取得重大经济成就，经济总量蝉联25年居全国各省第一位；产业结构历经多次调整，工业结构调整成效显著，重化工产业逐步占据主导地位。广东经济快速发展吸引大量外来人口，推动城镇化水平提高。人口分布密度与经济发展水平密切相关，经济发达的珠三角地区是吸纳外来人口的重要区域。广东省土地及水资源利用及其结构类型的变化主要受经济社会发展驱动。建设用地面积不断扩张导致耕地面积锐减，珠三角经济发达地区建设用地面积占全省同类用地面积比重高。与此同时，广东省用水总量不断增加，结构发生巨大变化，农业用水不断减少，生活用水持续增加，工业用水量总体上升。广东粗放的经济增长方式带来大量废弃物排放，造成严重环境污染，随着广东环保力度不断加大，总体环境质量有了明显好转，同时，工业结构以煤炭、石油为主的能源结构难以在短期内发生根本改变，工业结构性污染问题较为突出，节能减排压力大。工业化、城镇化进程的加快更加剧了生活能源的消耗以及生活废弃物的排放，环保工作仍面临巨大的压力和挑战。改进的能值生态足迹模型考虑了人的生产能力提供的承载力，据此测算的结果显示广东省整个生态经济系统处于可持续发展状态。广东省2000年以来生态赤字先扩大后缩小，2005年变为生态盈余状态，且生态盈余不断增大。这主要归功于广东省充分利用经济优势，通过贸易等弥补了生态承载力的缺陷。广东省生态足迹各账户情况如下：生物产品账户的人均生态足迹已经趋于稳定，生物产品的人均生态承载力不断减少。能源账户显示，能源消耗总量不断增加，电力消费最为突出，汽油消耗量增长较快。废弃物账户中，固体废弃物排放的人均生态足迹最小，废水人均生态足迹最大，其次是生活垃圾和废气。工业增加值、劳务和进出口账户的承载力不断增加，工业增加值对应的承载力最大，进出口差额人均承载力不断增加。与全国相比，广东省能源账户、废弃物账户的人均消费生态足迹都明显高于全国生态足迹平均水平。广东省经济、社会、资源环境复合系统及其各子系统可持续发展协调度测评得分结果显示：广东省各系统以及复合系统的建设发展能力在逐步提高。广东经济、社会与资源环境复合系统的协调发展历程可分成三个阶段：第一阶段是2000-2004年，各子系统的综合得分与复合系统协调综合得分都较低，各系统之间的协调水平低；第二阶段是2005-2007年，各系统的综合得分较低，但协调性开始转好；第三阶段2008-2012年，各系统得分较高，且协调性好。与全国可持续发展协调性水平比较发现，2000年-2007年，广东省经济、社会、环境复合系统的协调性得分高于全国，2008-2012年，广东省协调性得分低于全国平均水平。其中，广东省经济和环境系统总体优于全国，但优势在减弱，社会系统得分2006年以来低于全国平均水平。未来广东省可持续发展应大力发展低能耗、低污染的工业，不断提高产业结构优化和升级对提高区域承载力的贡献水平，同时保证经济、社会与资源环境复合系统协调发展，在经济快速增长的同时，保证社会发展及资源环境保护同步进行。具体可通过促进绿色生产、倡导生态消费，减少生态足迹；加强环境保护、提升生态系统稳定性，增大生态承载力；增强经济、社会、环境系统综合发展能力，提高协调水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the1960s, resources and environmental pressures caused by economic andsocial development was increasing; obstacles to development was increasinglyevident. Concept of sustainable development emerged, more and more countries andregions began to implement a sustainable development strategy. Regional differencesin levels of development and natural conditions lead to different strategies forsustainable development; premise of sustainable development strategy is scientificevaluation to the level of regional sustainable development.Guangdong Province, the first implementation of reform and opening up,economic output grew by leaps and bounds; Meanwhile, excessive consumption ofresources and energy led to decline in the quality of the natural environment,environmental challenges become more critical. Under the situation of ecologicalcivilization construction, resource-saving and environment-friendly society and alow-carbon economy are coming, the sustainable development of Guangdong isfacing new demands. How to implement the strategy of sustainable development andscientific development, is a proposition of a new era, but also the starting point ofGuangdong challenge.This study systematically summarizes the course of economic and socialdevelopment in Guangdong, analyze the trajectory of resource use and environmentalchange, pointing out that the overall situation facing the development sustainable.Improved ecological footprint method with energy value, estimated the ecologicalcarrying capacity of Guangdong’s economic and social development. Building asustainable coordination degree evaluation index system, with the coordination of the model based on principal component analysis, measure the level of coordinateddevelopment of economy, society and environment system resources. Ultimatelytargeted regulation proposed sustainable development strategy. This study providestheoretical guidance strategy for sustainable development of Guangdong Province,the theory of sustainable development while providing reference to other areas inChina.Because of reform and opening up, Guangdong Province has made greateconomic achievements, GDP ranks first in the country for25years. GuangdongProvince repeatedly adjust the industrial structure, industrial restructuring achievedremarkable results, heavy chemical industry gradually dominate. Rapid economicdevelopment in Guangdong attract large foreign population, to promote the level ofurbanization increased. Distribution of population density and level of economicdevelopment are closely related; economically developed Pearl River Delta region isan important area to attract foreign population.Change of land use and water resources utilization and structural types inGuangdong Province is mainly driven by economic and social development. Arableland was shrinking because of construction land expansion; economically developedPearl River Delta region occupies a large area of land for construction. At the sametime, the use of the total water of Guangdong Province continues to increase, thestructure changed dramatically. Agricultural water continued to decline, continued toincrease domestic water, industrial water consumption increased slightly. Extensiveeconomic growth mode cause a lot of waste discharge, causing serious environmentalpollution in Guangdong Province. With increasing environmental protection efforts,the overall environmental quality has improved markedly in Guangdong. Meanwhile,coal, petroleum-based energy structure in the short term is difficult to changefundamentally in the industrial areas, industrial structural pollution problems aremore prominent, energy saving pressure becomes larger. Accelerated industrialization and urbanization, resulting in more energy consumption and emissions of living lifewaste, environmental work is still facing great pressure and challenges.Improved emergy ecological footprint model considers the carrying capacity ofpeople to provide production, the results of the calculations show that GuangdongProvince ecological and economic system is in a state of sustainable development.Since2000, the ecological deficit widened then narrowed into ecological surplus statein2005, and the ecological surplus is increasing in Guangdong Province. This ismainly due to the full use of the economic advantages of Guangdong Province, tomake up for the shortcomings of the ecological carrying capacity through trade.Ecological Footprint accounts of Guangdong Province are as follows: per capitaecological footprint of biological products account has stabilized, per capitaecological carrying capacity of the biological product continues to decline. Energyaccounts show that the total energy consumption continues to increase, the powerconsumption is outstanding, gasoline consumption is growing rapidly. Waste accountsshow per capita ecological footprint of solid waste is the smallest wastewater percapita ecological footprint is the largest, followed by garbage and waste.Carrying capacity accounts of industrial added value, services and import andexport increased; bearing capacity of the industrial added value is the largest; averagecarrying capacity of Trade Balance is increasing. Compared with the national,Guangdong Province per capita consumption ecological footprint of energy accounts,waste accounts are significantly higher than the national average ecological footprint.The results of Sustainable Development Coordination degrees of GuangdongProvince economy, society, resources and environment, complex systems are asfollows: Construction and development capability of economic, social andenvironmental systems resources in Guangdong Province gradually increased.Coordination of the development process of Guangdong Economic, Social andResource Environment Composite System can be divided into three stages: Phase I: 2000-2004, comprehensive coordination score of subsystems and complex systemswere low, the level of coordination between the various systems was low; Phase II:2005-2007, the overall score for each system was low, but the coordination becamebetter; Phase III:2008-2012, the score of each system was higher, and thecoordination was good. Compared with countries,2000-2007, Guangdong Provincescore of coordination about economic, social, environmental complex systems washigher than the national average.2008-2012, Guangdong Province coordination scorewas lower than the national average.Among them, the Guangdong ProvincialEconomic and environmental systems were better than the national average, but theadvantage is on the wane, the social system score was lower than the national averagesince2006.In the future, the regulation of the sustainable development of GuangdongProvince should develop low-power, low-pollution industries, Constantly improvecontribution levels to regional carrying capacity by industrial structure optimizationand upgrading. The same time to achieve economic and social development andenvironmental resources simultaneously. Specifically through the promotion of greenproduction, promote ecological consumption, reduce ecological footprint; Strengthenenvironmental protection, improve the ecological stability of the system, increasingthe ecological carrying capacity; Enhance the economic, social and environmentalsystems integrated development capacity, improve the level of coordination.更多还原