节点文献
内蒙古家庭牧场资源优化配置与适应性管理模拟研究
Simulation Study of the Resources Optimizing Allocation and Adaptive Management in Household Ranch,Inner Mongolia
【作者】 李治国;
【导师】 韩国栋;
【作者基本信息】 内蒙古农业大学 , 草业科学, 2015, 博士
【副题名】以内蒙古四子王旗为例
【摘要】 在陆地生态系统和家畜生产系统中,草地在生态与经济上具有十分重大的作用。我国草地面积大,分布范围广,是重要的家畜生产和生态保护区域。由于草地利用强度的增加和气候变化因素的影响,使得近年来草地退化趋势加剧,草地生产力下降,畜牧业产值较低。家庭牧场尺度上草地的利用是我国北方草地利用的主要形式。传统意义上的牧场技术革新耗时费力,使得牧场生产和经营发展缓慢,进而导致牧场增收困难。本研究于2006~2012年期间,在内蒙古自治区四子王旗地区通过半结构式问卷调查和控制性对比试验牧场监测的方式,应用“家庭牧场草畜平衡模型”、“家庭牧场优化生产模型”和“家畜精准管理模型”对研究区的试验和示范牧场的现有资源进行优化配置,得到能量需求、经济效益和甲烷排放等模拟结果,利用牧场的实际调查结果和牧场监测数据进行校验。采用统计计算的方法分析现有家庭牧场的生产经营状况,将当地牧场根据草地面积和新品种羔羊数量划分出3个类型牧场(传统牧场、转型牧场和新型牧场),并利用模型模拟的方式对其进行比较研究;另结合当地牧场现状进一步提出了低载畜率、短周期、高补饲的改良牧场模式,该模式利用模拟模型进行三年四周期的优化模拟,获得牧场能量、效益和甲烷排放等结果,对于当地畜牧业生产和发展提供技术指导和理论依据。主要研究结果如下:(1)荒漠草原家庭牧场草地生产力随降水量的变化而变化,但其植被多样性,产量等群落指标差异不显著。优化管理模式的长期实施有助于试验示范家庭牧场植物群落中建群种和优势种的恢复,其对于草地生态系统的修复具有重要作用;家庭牧场在自主调控家畜畜种结构和性别结构方面表现出地方上的一致性,尽管不同畜种体重变化规律同草地生产力动态较为匹配,但在试验示范牧场中家畜体重在冬春季节表现优于传统牧场,且家畜体重波动幅度减缓。(2)管理性支出比例在试验示范牧场中较高,但可提高牧场的整体畜产品质量,使试验示范牧场的净收益和出售家畜的收入显著高于对照牧场(P<0.05)。试验示范牧场中,羔羊的提前出栏不仅可以减缓草地压力,而且在草地回报率和家畜回报率方面表现良好。(3)在四子王旗地区,地方品种羔羊的数量和绵羊的比例在牧场经营中显得尤为重要,而新品种对于家庭牧场的经济效益所起的作用有限,管理方式的改变(如低载畜率、家畜管理、放牧和舍饲的结合),扩大牧场规模和资源整合等才是提高经济效益的重要手段,这在当地表现为新型牧场>转型牧场>传统牧场。尽管新型牧场在饲料支出上较高,但是通过新品种和配套管理措施的采用,其草地回报率和家畜回报率表现为最高,且净收益高于传统牧场和转型牧场经济效益的2-4倍。(4)改良经营管理策略后的传统牧户在低载畜率短生产周期模式下可增加畜产品产量和家庭牧场效益、促进草地恢复和减少牧场甲烷排放量,但是该模式全年能量亏缺较多,额外补饲是弥补这一不足的主要方式。(5) StageONE模型可以作为家庭牧场的能量平衡模拟的重要工具,各类型家庭牧场全年总体能量均呈亏缺态势且表现为转型牧场>传统牧场>新型牧场,而StageTWO模型在夏季能量平衡模拟较好,冬季模拟效果不佳;StageONE模型的模拟经济效益值仅可作为牧场评价的参考选项,而StageTWO模型较适用于各类牧场,各个类别的家庭牧场中总收入和净收入模拟值随着载畜率的增加而增加,当增加到一定程度后出现下降的趋势,总支出表现为随着载畜率的增加而增加。不同类别优化家庭牧场的净收益表现为新型牧场>转型牧场>传统牧场。精准管理模型在具体家庭牧场中应用后,可保障在现有收入的基础上减畜9%-26%。
【Abstract】 Grassland plays a very important role in ecology and economy in terrestrial ecosystems and livestock production systems. China has a very large area and distribution of grassland and the grassland is the important to domestic animal production and ecological protection. Because of increasing grazing intensity and climate change, grassland degradation is speeding up, grassland productivity decreased and husbandry profile is getting lower.Household ranch scale is the main form of grassland utilization in in northern China. The traditional ranch technical innovation was time and labor consuming, it made ranch production and management developed slowly, and then made it difficult to increase the income of the herders. Semi structured interview and the controlled comparison experiments of household ranches were used in this study during 2006 to 2012 in Siziwang Banner, Wulanchabu City, Inner Mongolia. Feed Balance Analyzer, Linear Program Optimizer and Livestock Precision Management Model, were applied in household ranch in research area to optimize and allocate the available resources, and got the simulation results of energy demand, economic benefits and methane emissions and survey data was used to test the simulation results. Statistical methods and model stimulation were used to analyze the producing and operating status of household ranch, and three types of household ranch were divided (New household ranch, Transition ranch and Traditional ranch), and modified them by models. Base on the suvery data from 2005-2012, we built a new management system mode, which including the lower stocking rate, shorter product cycle (four rounds in three year) and high level supplement, the simulate results of energy balance, profit and methan provided technical guidance and theoretical basis for the local husbandry development.The mainly results were as follows:(1) Grassland productivity of household ranch varies with precipitation in desert steppe, there are no significant difference on vegetation community diversity and yield. The optimization model was used in household ranch for long-term, which contributed to the recovery of dominant species and constructive species; self-regulation of species and gender structure of livestock in different families ranch shows the consistency; although weight variation of the different breeds matches the dynamics of grassland productivity, but in the demonstration farm, livestock weight variations in the winter-spring season were better than traditional farm, and the livestock weight fluctuations were slower than traditional family ranch.(2) Higher proportion of management expenditure in demonstration farm can improve the livestock quality, and made the net income and the profit for livestock sale significantly higher than Control farm (P<0.05). In demonstration farm, earlier lamb slaughter can not only reduced the grassland pressure, but can also achieve the higher net income for grassland unit and livestock unit.(3) In Siziwang region, the proportion of sheep and the number of local lamb were particularly important for household ranch management, while the new breed had the limited contribution to economic. The change of management, such as lower stocking rate, high level animal management, feed for grazing and supplement, enlarge household scale and resource integration were the key to improve the ranch profit. And it reflected as New household ranch> Transition ranch> Traditional ranch. Despite the new Ranch had a higher expenditure on supplement, through the adoption of new sheep breed and adaptive management, the highest return of grassland unit and livestock unit were achieved, and the net income of new ranch was 2 to 4 times more than traditional ranch and transition ranch.(4) The traditional household ranches after improving management strategies and under lower stocking rate and shorter production cycle, can increase livestock production and family benefits, promote grassland recovery and reduce methane emissions from pasture. While this mode has more annual energy deficit, additional feeding was the main way to compensate this lack.(5) StageONE model can serve as an important tool for simulating the energy balance in household ranch. Energy deficit was normal in different types of household ranch, and showed New household ranch> Transition ranch> Traditional ranch, and the simulated energy results of StageTWO model is good for summer. The simulated economic results of StageOne can be used as reference for ranch evaluating, while StageTWO model is more applicable to all types of ranches. The results of total revenues and net income increased as stocking rate increasing in some household ranches, while when the stocking rates reach a special value then they went down. The total expenditure went up with stocking rate increasing. Stocking rate of different types of optimized household ranch was New household ranch< Transition ranch< Traditional ranch; while net income was New household ranch> Transition ranch> Traditional ranch. Animal number can be decreased by 9%-26% under guarantee existing income after the Livestock Precision Management Model was used in demonstration farm.
【Key words】 Simulation; Resources Optimize Allocation; Adaptive Management; Household Ranch; Model; Cluster Analysis;