【作者】 张磊；

【导师】 李慧民；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 土木工程建造与管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 针对目前我国城市既有住宅的“短命”和建筑业的高污染现象，以循环经济理论为切入点，系统分析了既有住宅更新改造与循环经济的关系，构建了城市住宅拆除量预测的神经网络Boosting集成模型，对住宅更新改造的环境参数和环境绩效进行了分析，并从所有者及使用者的态度、既有住宅的状况、环境性能和人文社会属性四个层面构建了既有住宅更新改造潜力评价指标体系和评价模型，提出了住宅更新改造的对策和建议。具体内容如下：1.在对循环经济基本理论介绍的基础上，结合我国目前常见的既有住宅更新改造方式，指出循环经济是促进城市发展的关键，既有住宅更新改造是循环经济减量化原则和再利用原则的重要体现。2.采用灰色关联度分析方法筛选出影响城市住宅拆除量的主要因素，然后采用神经网络Boosting集成模型对城市住宅拆除量进行预测分析。分析结果表明，住宅自身的建造质量并非影响我国住宅拆除量的主要因素，影响城市住宅拆除量的主要因素为经济利益的驱动和因农村人口迁入城市导致的对住宅需求量的增加。3.以“隐含环境影响因子”概念为平台，构建了住宅隐含环境影响因子计算模型，并采用该方法对我国城市住宅更新改造的环境参数进行了计算分析。计算结果表明，对既有住宅进行更新改造，而不是简单拆除，在减少资源消耗和降低环境污染方面具有良好的环境生态效益，符合循环经济减量化和再利用的基本要求，并且环境效益随住宅更新改造时建筑实体保留率的增加而增长。4.对既有住宅更新改造的直接效益、间接效益和可能的负效益进行了分析，并以环境参数为输入数据，计算了既有住宅更新改造的环境价值。计算结果表明，对既有住宅进行更新改造具有明显的环境价值，符合循环经济和环境可持续发展的要求。5.从所有者及使用者的态度、既有住宅的状况、环境性能和人文社会属性四个层面，构建了系统化的既有住宅更新改造潜力评价体系，在指标权重的计算中综合分析了主客观权重确定方法的优缺点，并根据该指标体系的特点，采用了改进的层次分析法确定了指标体系的权重，最后建立了评价模型，完善了该领域的标准化体系，为既有住宅更新改造的时机选择提供了依据。6.由于住宅更新改造具有明显的环境和经济外部性，符合循环经济发展的基本原则和要求，以政府介入循环经济发展的理论基础—外部性理论为切入点，从政策支撑体系建设、法律支撑体系建设、经济市场支撑体系建设、观念意识转变和提升及专业人才培养五个方面提出了我国旧住宅更新改造的相关政策性建议。以上研究成果对于科学合理的判断既有住宅更新改造的潜力，制定相关旧住宅更新改造的政策，延长我国城市住宅的寿命，减少因拆、建过于频繁导致的环境污染具有一定的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 To the present “short-lived” phenomenon of existing residence in city and thesevere pollution in construction industry, the relationship between existing residence’sreuse and circulation economy is systematic analysed based on the theory of circulareconomy. Then the Boosting neural network integrated model is introduced toprodiction the the amount of the residence demolished in the city, the environmentalparameters and environmental performance of residence reuse is calculated. Later on, anadaptive reuse potential assessment system is presented on the four dimensional indexsystems of residence owners or users’ attitude, residential status, environmentalperformance and humanities and social attributes.At last, the strategies andreeommendations for the existing residence reuse in city were put forward in this study.The main contents are as the follows.1. Based on introducing the basic theory of circular economy and the currentcommon existing residece reused ways, the author points out that the circular economyis the key to promote the development and renewal of cities, the existing residence reusealso embodies the reduction and reuse principle of circular economy.2. By means of gray interconnected analysis, the main factors affecting the amountof city exiting residence demolition have been filtered out, and then the amount of cityexiting residence has been predicted by the neural network Boosting integratedmethod.The analysis results show that the residence construction quality is not the mainfactors to affect the amount of residence demolition, the drive of economic benefit andthe increased demand for residence due to rural-urban migration are the fundamentalimpelling force for residence demolition in city. 3. On the platform of the concept of Embodied Environment Effect Factor (EEEF),the whole life cycle EEEF is calculated, normalized and quantified. The result showsthat constantly updated to extend the life of the building in its life cycle, reducing theprobability of demolition and reconstruction, will be an effective means to reduceresource consumption and environmental damage, conformity with principle ofreduction and reuse on circular economy theory and the environmental quality increasedwith the residence construction entity retention rate in reuse.4. Firstly, the direct benefit, indirect benefit and the possible negative effects ofadaptive reusing existing residence have been identified.Then the value of residentcereuse’s environmental economic benefits is calculated with the environmentalparameters attained in the previous chapter as input data. The result shows that theenvironmental economic benefits is obviously according to reuse the exiting residenceand conformanced with the requirements of circular economy and environmentsustainable development.5.Combination existing residence performance assessment systems, the fourdimensional assessment index systems is presented on attributes of residence owners orusers’ attitude, residential status, environmental performance and humanities and socialattributes. An improved analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weight ofeach index, and then modeling an existing residence adaptive reuse potential assessment.This assessment system extende the traditional residence performance assessmentsystems from technical aspects to stakeholders, environment, cultural and social, it ismore comprehensive and objective; the model has advantages of clarity, simple andfacilitate to application. This approach provides a new criterion in assessing the existingresidence reuse potential.6. The existing residence reuse has the intrinsic features of environmental andeconomic externalities, it is conformity with the basic principles and requirements of thecircular economy. As the externality theory for the theoretical foundation thatgovernment intervention to development the circular economy, the policy and incentivesmechanism in our country is made with five dimensions in policy support system, legalsupport system, economic support system, conceptions transition and improving theprofessional training. The above research has a certain reference value in assessing exiting residenceadaptive reuse potential, making policies to extend the life of China’s city exitingresidence, reducing the environmental pollution in construction industry due to frequentdemolition and reconstruction.更多还原