【作者】 王治平；

【导师】 胡祥培； 郑其绪；

【作者基本信息】 中国石油大学（华东） ， 石油工程管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 中国经济已经取得了举世瞩目的成就，并已经成为世界经济发展的重要增长极，这背后需要大量的能源供应，高勘探开发油区在中国经济增长过程中发挥了无可估量的作用。伴随油气资源的不断勘探开发，中国很多油区开始步入高勘探开发阶段，油气资源储量不断下降给高勘探开发油区生态系统稳定发展带来了巨大的扰动，造成其脆弱性不断加强。开展高勘探开发油区生态系统脆弱性评价具有很强的前瞻性、战略性和现实针对性，同时也是一项复杂的系统工程。论文在系统分析高勘探开发油区生态系统脆弱性表现、要素构成和脆弱性过程的基础上，运用系统评价理论和多种数学分析工具，构建涵盖三个子系统、47个指标的高勘探开发油区生态系统脆弱性评价模型，并以胜利油区为例进行实证分析，有针对性地提出胜利油区生态系统脆弱性调控措施。论文各章节紧密相关、层层推进，有针对性地探讨高勘探开发油区生态系统脆弱性评价的一系列热点和难点问题。论文主要的内容、方法和观点如下：系统分析高勘探开发油区生态系统脆弱性的机理。从高勘探开发油区生态系统特征、各子系统脆弱性表现、脆弱性构成及脆弱性过程四个方面深入研究了高勘探开发油区生态系统脆弱性的机理，认为高勘探开发油区生态系统由生态经济子系统、生态社会子系统和生态环境子系统耦合构成，其脆弱性表现为敏感性和应对能力两个纬度，不同的子系统具有独特的脆弱性过程，该部分内容为评价指标体系的构建提供了良好的理论指导。建立高勘探开发油区生态系统脆弱性评价模型。对影响高勘探开发油区生态系统各子系统敏感性和应对能力的若干要素进行了梳理，构建了包含47个指标的指标体系，综合应用BP神经网络、层次分析法、状态关联函数、回归分析等方法构建了高勘探开发油区生态系统脆弱性评价模型，并应用聚类分析方法确定了不同警戒线，提出了高勘探开发油区生态系统脆弱性指数。对胜利油区生态系统脆弱性进行实证测度。验证构建模型的有效性，并针对胜利油区生态系统脆弱性的测度结果提出了调控措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 The economy of China has made remarkable achievements and become an importantgrowth pole of the world economic development, behind which it requires a lot of energysupply. The high exploration and development oilfield played an immeasurable role in theprocess of China’s economic growth. Accompanied by the continuous exploration anddevelopment of oil and gas resources, many oil regions in China have started to enter the highexploration and development oilfield stage. The declining reserves of oil and gas, has broughtgreat disturbance to the stability development of high exploration and development oilfield,and cause their vulnerability continue to strengthen. So, carrying out the vulnerabilityevaluation of high exploration and development oilfield has a very forward-looking, strategicand practical relevance, and at the same time, it is also complex system engineering.On the basis of analysis on the performance, elements’ composition and process ofecosystem vulnerability in the high exploration and development oilfield, this paper uses thesystem evaluation theory and other mathematical analysis tools to establish the evaluationmodel of ecosystem vulnerability in high exploration and development oilfield, which covers3subsystem and47indicators. Also this paper takes the example of Shengli Oilfield and putsforward some control measures. Each chapter of the paper is related closely, and discusses aseries of hot and difficult problems of ecosystem vulnerability evaluation in high explorationand development oilfield. The main content, methods and perspectives of the paper are asfollowed:The paper carries out systematically analysis on the mechanism of ecosystemvulnerability in high exploration and development oilfield. From the features of ecosystem,performance of vulnerability, composition and process, this paper studies systematicallyanalysis the mechanism of ecosystem vulnerability in high exploration and developmentoilfield. In this paper, the ecosystem of high exploration and development oilfield includeseconomic subsystem, social subsystem and environmental subsystem, and the vulnerability ofthe ecosystem shows both sensitivity and response capability. Different subsystems have its unique process of vulnerability. This part of the content provides a good theoretical guidancefor the evaluation system.The paper establishes the ecosystem vulnerability assessment model of high explorationand development of oilfiled, analyses the number of elements that impact the ecosystemsensitivity and response ability in each subsystem of high exploration and developmentoilfield, constructs the index system that contains47indicatiors, and applies BP neuralnetwork, AHP, state correlation function comprehensively, and also uses regression analysismethod to establish the ecosystem vulnerability evaluation model of high exploration anddevelopment oilfield. The application of clustering analysis method is used to determine thedifferent warning levels.This paper takes empirical measures of Shengli Oilfield ecosystem vulnerability to verifythe validity construction of the model, and proposes controlling measures according to resultsof the Shengli oilfield ecosystem vulnerability.Construction of the evaluation model and application that has assesses high explorationand development oilfield ecosystem vulnerability has important practical significance forspeeding up the economic growth, social development and environment optimized of highexploration and development in oil zone.更多还原