【作者】 张赫；

【导师】 陈天；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 城市规划设计及其理论， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 针对我国填海造地快速发展过程中，其规模控制缺乏科学制定依据和有效、可量化的管控标准的现实需要，本文从填海造地规模研究的方法范式构建开始，借鉴了相近学科的研究思路，制定了填海造地需求评价、供给评定和总量综合平衡的总体研究路线。在此基础上，本文首先运用了数理统计方法对国外代表性填海造地区域进行了历史回顾性评价，总结了填海造地规模需求指标、效益指标与填海造地规模历史积累量间的变化规律。然后，本文依托状态空间法对国内一般性填海造地区域进行了基于现实条件的最大供给能力评价，给出了填海造地供给规模计算的抽象数学公式和直观表达的三维评价模型。其后，本文又运用系统动力学法对需求与供给的分析进行综合平衡，在填海造地区域可持续发展的理念下，建立了全面、系统、客观、可量化、易操作的填海造地规模评定系统模型。并以天津市滨海新区填海造地的实例，运用上述模型，进行了未来动态发展预测的验证研究。此外，本文全面总结了填海造地规模的主要影响因素，梳理了相关评价指标体系；实证多方案比较了不同发展条件下的填海造地进程，并最终通过对填海造地规模确定规律的研判，提出了在填海造地区域选择、总量控制、比例控制三大方面的九点管控标准和规划政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In view of the coastal reclamation is in the rapid development process,herecomes the reality problem that the scientific basis and the effective,quantitativecontrol standards of reclamation scale control is lacking. This paper established theoverall research route of demand and supply evaluation and the comprehensiveoverall balance of reclamation, from the research on method and paradigmconstruction of reclamation scale by reference to the similar subjects ideas. Firstly,mathematical statistics method used to make review and assessment of the overseasrepresentative reclamation area, summarize demand index, benefit index, and changelaw on historical accumulation of reclamation scale. Secondly, maximum supplyability of the general area of coastal reclamation under practical conditions wasevaluated based on the state-space method. The abstract mathematics formula forsupply scale computing was given, and a three-dimensional evaluation model ofvisual expression constructed. Then, we made comprehensive balance of supply anddemand analysis the by system dynamics method to establish a evaluation systemmodel that is comprehensive, systematic, objective, quantifiable, and easyreclamationfor scale under the guide of sustainable development concept of reclamation area.Taking the Binhai New Area reclamation of Tianjin for examples, using the model, wealso validated prediction on the future dynamic development. In addition, this papersummarized the main influence factors of the reclamation scale, combed the relevantevaluation index system., and empirical compared of many schemes of thereclamation processunder different development conditions. Finally, through the studyand analysis on determination of the land reclamation scale, this paper proposed ninerecommendations of control standards and planning policys form three aspects ofselection, total land controling, proportional controling of reclamation area.更多还原