【作者】 李凯；

【导师】 武献华；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国民经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 产业投资结构,是指社会投资在国民经济各产业部门之间分配后形成的数量比例关系。在市场经济条件下,社会投资主要通过市场机制调节,由要素市场进行分配,同时也在一定程度上运用行政方式实现社会投资在不同产业部门之间的配置。产业投资结构是经济发展的重要组成部分,是生产关系的反映,是实现产业结构演进的基本手段,它直接影响经济发展、产业结构和生产力布局。可以说,产业结构是由投资结构塑造出来,并由投资结构所决定的。今天的产业结构现状是由过去的产业投资结构形成的,而未来产业结构的变化主要取决于当前的投资结构,所以产业投资结构的动态发展是实现产业结构演进的基本方式。目前,我国正处于面向市场经济转型期间的工业化进程中,产业投资将是维持我国经济持续增长的关键因素,也是经济转型中的重要载体。在我国早期的工业化发展中,产业投资顺应了经济体制转型的要求,投资结构不断进行调整和自我修复,直接推动了我国经济的长期增长。但是,改革开放以来,在经济转型的过程中,产业投资结构暴露出较多问题,即粗放式经济增长模式下产业投资结构的失衡所导致的环境污染日益加剧、部分产业产能过剩严重、产业技术进步滞缓以及投资效率低下等。根据近些年国内外学者对我国产业投资效率的评估,显示绝大多数工业行业存在高成本投入、低附加值产出,缺乏产品技术创新等问题。产业链的高端行业长期被国外垄断,资本投入与产出之比过高,严重阻碍了我国向“新型工业化”方向发展的进程。造成以上问题的原因,既有体制所致的内在因素,又有世界产业转移所致的外在因素。但鉴于我国目前仍处于经济体制转型期,早期的计划经济色彩在产业投资领域依然浓厚,因而投资主体、融资结构等体制性因素对产业投资结构的影响更为深刻。此外,现代经济是知识经济,知识积累、技术进步对各产业的发展起着举足轻重的作用。鉴于以上层面的考虑本文将以产业投资主体、融资结构和技术进步三方面因素作为本文研究的切入点,分析在经济转型背景下三者对产业投结构的影响。本文运用规范分析的方法,对产业投资主体、融资结构、技术进步三方面影响因素进行了深入分析；运用定量分析的方法,从数据中进一步验证了上述因素对产业投资结构的影响。研究内容分为以下六部分：第一章,绪论。阐述了本文的选题背景、选题意义,并在此基础上厘清了本文所涉及的相关基本概念,梳理了相关文献,阐述了研究方法与创新点,为后文的研究作了一般性的铺垫。第二章,我国经济转型的演进与产业投资结构现状。从时间顺序上分析了我国经济转型产生的历史背景及演进过程,以及我国由计划经济体制向市场经济体制转型的成因,针对政府提出的发展“新型工业化国家”、积极转变经济增长方式进行了理论阐述。本文认为,我国目前的经济转型包括两个方面,一方面是经济体制转型,另一方面是经济增长方式转型。本文在经济转型的大背景下从投资的角度分析了我国三次产业的发展状态及产业间的投资结构,对三次产业投资结构存在的问题及产业投资主体、融资结构、技术进步三个主要影响因素进行了分析、总结与归纳,以便于下文的深入研究。第三章,产业投资主体对产业投资结构的影响分析。通过在经济体制转型的背景下对产业投资主体演变与投资领域变化的分析,揭示了政府、国有企业、非国有企业三个不同投资主体对产业投资结构的影响,同时,运用定量分析方法进一步验证了政府、国有企业、非国有企业三个投资主体对三次产业投资的影响关系。第四章,融资结构对产业投资结构的影响分析。通过梳理经济转型背景下融资结构的变化过程,分析了以银行信贷为主的间接融资对三次产业投资的作用,同时,回顾了我国证券市场的发展历程,分析了其在三次产业投资结构中发挥的效用,并运用定量分析的方法进一步检验了银行贷款、股票融资对三次产业投资的影响。第五章,技术进步对产业投资结构的影响。本文以内生增长理论为基础,分析了技术进步对产业投资结构变动的影响,并对我国医药制造业、电子通信设备制造业等高新技术产业的投资情况及发展态势进行了深入研究,同时,运用定量分析的方法检验了技术进步对我国三次产业投资的影响以及工业行业的技术进步率。第六章,结论与政策建议。本文通过对产业投资主体、融资结构及技术进步三个方面的规范研究和实证检验,得出了以上三方面因素对三次产业投资结构的形成具有极其重要影响的结论,并在此结论的基础上对降低以上因素的负面效应及优化产业投资结构提出了一些政策建议。通过以上研究本文得出了以下主要结论：(1)政府、国有及非国有产业投资主体对产业投资的影响程度不同。通过研究得出,政府投资主体对三次产业投资均存在显著影响关系,除在公共产品领域的投资外,依然保持着对竞争性行业的投资,其中,政府对第一产业和第三产业的投资影响较大。本文认为,政府作为投资主体应尽量避免直接参与竞争性产业的投资。国有企业的投资对第二产业及第三产业影响最大,其投资主要偏重于第二产业和第三产业中的传统行业,缺乏对第一产业和高端制造业的投资。因此,国有企业对三次产业的投资应该更注重统筹兼顾,加强对第一产业的投资,并积极引导投资资金流向第二、三产业的高端领域。非国有企业投资主要对第一产业和第二产业影响较大,由于其投资具有一定的灵活性与投资高效性从而引发了我国产业投资结构的变动,因此,非国有投资主体对产业投资结构的影响显示出更多积极性,但是,其投资领域受到相当多的限制,从而造成了非国有投资主体的投资结构更趋传统性。因此,只有解除对非国有企业投资领域的限制,在垄断性行业中让渡更多产业空间于非国有企业,才能让其发挥更大作用。(2)以银行贷款为代表的间接融资对产业投资的影响依然占据着主导作用。本文通过研究分析,发现银行贷款对我国三次产业投资均有显著影响,其中,银行贷款对第二产业投资的贡献度在百分之三十,对第三产业投资的贡献度在百分之七十以上,而股票融资只对第二产业投资存在明显的影响,这一结论表明,我国产业融资结构中间接融资对产业投资的影响最大,同时,也表明直接融资市场的作用还有待进一步提升。(3)我国整体技术进步率较低,对产业投资的影响不够充分。本文通过研究得出我国整体全要素生产率的增长率较低,特别是进入新世纪以来,全要素生产率的增长不但未出现明显增长,反而出现了一定的下滑。同时,对31个主要工业行业的技术进步率的测算也进一步证实了我国多数行业技术进步率较为迟缓。全要素生产率对三次产业投资的回归分析则表明,技术进步对推动产业投资结构变动未起到足够的促进作用,未来只有政府积极改善创新机制,并提供必要的法律保护和政策支持,才能使其对推动产业投资结构变动、优化产业结构发挥最大作用。在本文的研究过程中,主要从以下方面进行了努力和创新性尝试：(1)本文研究发现,政府投资、国有企业投资和非国有企业投资在三次产业投资中呈现出不同的影响程度,对各产业投资的贡献率不同。(2)本文研究发现,我国技术进步对产业投资结构有影响,但对其影响的程度不够充分。(3)对如何确认民间借贷法律地位和加快改善创新机制的问题提出了具有参考价值的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Industrial investment structure is a relationship of quantitative proportion that society investment allocate every industrial and department for national economy to form. It is the main way to society investment that take themselves’s adjustment by market mechanism and make allocation by production elements market, at the same time achieve society investment allocation in different industrial by apply to minim plan and administration. Industrial investment structure is important department of economy structure, reflection of productive relationship, determinant of evolution of industrial structure that influence direct economic development and industrial structure and arrangement of productivity. It can say industrial structure was made up and determination by investment structure. Today current situation of industrial structure come into being by former industrial investment structure. Furthermore, the changes of industrial structure will principal rest with industrial investment structure on this period. So, dynamic change of industrial investment structure is basic mode to achieve evolution for industrial structure.At the present day, our country has located on industrialization process of transform to turn towards market economy. Industrial investment will be a key factor to keep economic sustainable growth, an important trager to economic transition. Industrial investment responded to request of economic transition and industrial investment structure ofen adjustment and self-regeneration moreover direct promote our country conomic long growth in the early industrialization development. But, many problems were exposed in three-industry structure in the prosess of economic transition, such as increasingly severe environmental pollution caused by unbalance of industrial structure in entensive economic development, production capacity surplus in some industry, sluggishness in industry technology development and inefficiency of investment. According to the evaluations of inefficiency of investment by the international and domestic scholars, it shows that many problems exist in many industry areas such as high cost investment, low value-added output, lack of innovation in products technology and so on. High-end industry are monopolized by the internatonal markets in industry chains, lack of proportion between capital investment and output severely obstructed the development of new road toward industrialization. The reasons caused by the above problems including inner problems caused by the economic institutional structure as well as extrinsic factors caused by the industry technology. In view of china is in the period of economic transition, planned economy influences greatly in the area of investment in industry, some problems in institutional structure influedced greatly in investments in industry such as the investment subject and financing structure. In addition, we are in the knowledge economy society, accumulation of knowledge and progess of technology play a decisive role in different areas in industry development. In sum, I will expound the subject of industry investment, financing structure and technical progess individually and analyze their influences on structure in industry investment.I will analyze the subject of industry investment, financing structure and technical progess in depth by using canonical parse, empirical analysis and quantitative analysis, and try to pick up and verify the above factors’influence on structure in industry investment by datas. Meanwhile, I explored the technical progress rate in main industry areas in order to show the technology state in nowdays industry areas.The first chapter is a introduction. It will introduce the background why and the meaning I choose this topic, and also I will introduce the basic concept, documents and materials, research approach and novelty it concerned. Try to make a foundation for the latter research.Chapter two will introduce the developments of economic transition in China and the current situation of industrial investment structure. I will analyze the historical background of economic transition and its developments, and the root cause why the market transformed from planned economic system to market economic system. Meanwhile, I will introduce why the government advocated new path of industrialization with Chinese characteristics and try to change the style of economic increase. I think china economis transition includes two aspects, one is economic structure transition, the other is style of economic increase. And then, in the background of economic transition, I will analyze the state of developmentChapter three the dissertation analyzes the change of industrial investment entities, financing channels and technological progress how to influence the change of industrial investment structure. From government-led to the enterprise-led investment entities, investment entities have greatly changed, and which undoubtedly have fundamental effect on the change of industrial investment structure. However, government-led entities have not withdrawn from the industrial investment completely, and the differences of investment scope among government-led investment entities, state-owned enterprises investment entities and private-owned enterprises investment entities lead to the unbalance of present industrial investment structure. Financing channels have been changed too. Financing channels have been extended because of the development of capital market. However, indirect financing market still play dominant role in China. Industrial investment entities have to invest to the traditional or monopoly industries because of the steady style of bank credit, and consequently the financing mode of bank credit originally obstruct the development of innovative enterprises.Chapter four the underdevelopment of capital market also effects negatively the adjustment and change of the industrial investment structure. The appearance of new financing channels such as industry investment fund and PE has little effect on the industry investment structure because of too small scale. Based on the endogenous growth theory, the dissertation analyzes the effect of technological progress on the investment structure. We deeply study the investment in the pharmaceutical manufacturing, electronic communication equipment manufacturing in China. In chapter IV, we analyze the change of industrial structure in OECD countries such as U.S.A, Japan and some developing countries such India, Brazil so as to provide useful experiential reference for China to change and adjust its industrial structure.Chapter five using two econometric models, this dissertation examines the efficiency of industrial investment allocation and the growth rate of TFP of44sub-sectors among three industries recent years in China. The results show that the efficiency of industrial investment allocation is overall not high. The sub-sectors of high efficiency focus on real estate and some state monopolies. On the other hand, the efficiency of capital allocation in the sub-sector with high spontaneous investment is low and these sub-sectors mainly focus on traditional industries or supported by government industrial policy industries, and in contrast, the efficiency of capital allocation in the sub-sector with low spontaneous investment is high and these sub-sectors mainly focus on real estate and some state monopolies, and which show that the industry investment entities have great effect on the change of industry investment structure. At the same time, the industry investment tends to the traditional or monopoly industries because of limited financing channels, which is cause of unbalance of industry structure and low capital allocation efficiency. The estimation results of TFP show that during2000～2010, the growth rate of TFP not only did not increase, but decrease, and significantly behind the developed countries. The results also show that in recent years, the quality of extensive economy growth is not high on the one hand, and the investment returns is low on the other hand and it is very necessary and urgent to change the economy growth mode from the extensive to the intensive.Chapter six in conclusion, by econometric method, this dissertation innovatively studies and estimates the effect of the industry investment entities, financing channels and technological progress on the change of industry investment structure in the context of both transformation of economy system and economy growth mode. This dissertation also estimates and studies the relationship between spontaneous investment and efficiency of capital allocation, and illustrates the industry adjustment direction in the future in China. Meanwhile, it is necessary to point out that the inadequacies of this dissertation are obvious.Following is the main conclusions:(1) The government-led investment entities, state-owned enterprises investment entities and private-owned enterprises investment entities have different effect on the industrial investment. The government-led investment entities have significant effect on investment of all three industries, especially on the primary and tertiary industry. The effect of investment by state-owed enterprises on secondary and tertiary industry is significant and the investment especially is focused on traditional industries, but the state-owned enterprises hardly invest in primary industry and high-end manufacturing. The investment by private-owned enterprises has effect mainly on the primary and secondary industries and the scope of investment of private-owned enterprises is quite limited. The results suggest that the government should avoid as much as possible participating in the investment in competitive industries directly. State-owned enterprises should increase investment in primary industry and high-end area of the secondary and tertiary industries. In addition, the limitation on the scope of investment by private-owned enterprises should be eliminated gradually.(2) Our studies show that bank loans have significant effect on the investment of all three industries. The contribution of bank loans to the secondary industry investment is about30%, and to the tertiary industry investment is above70%, and in comparison, equity financing have only effect on the secondary industry. The results suggest that the indirect financing remain dominant in the industrial investment.(3)General speaking, the technological progress rate of China is low and has no significant impact to the industrial investment.The result of this study shows that the overall total factor productivity is low. The growth of total factor productivity has been some decline since the beginning of this century. At the same time, this paper also further confirms that the technological progress rate is relatively slow by the estimation of the31major industries. It show that technological progress did not play the role of promoting the industrial investment, thus affecting the restructuring and development of the industrial investment structure.更多还原