【作者】 王祥；

【导师】 武献华；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国民经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 自改革开放以来,我国经济在高速增长过程中,在一个较短的时间内完成了工业化转型,并迅速进入到工业发展的中后期阶段。但是,伴随着社会物质水平和国民收入及福利的稳步提升,我国能源消耗也迅速增加且资源瓶颈也逐步显现。我国作为一个资源大国,当前石油产品的对外依存度已超过50%,并且自2007年开始成为煤炭的净进口国。能源消耗的迅速增加,在导致能源产品安全供应压力日趋增强的同时,也衍生了日益严峻的碳排放及生态环境压力,中国经济增长的可持续物质基础开始动摇,能源要素已经从一个极富竞争力的资源类产品,转移成为制约经济进一步发展的要素瓶颈。正是在这样的现实背景下,我国自2006年起首次将节能降耗纳入到宏观调控目标体系中,在“十一五”发展纲要中确定了GDP能耗下降20%的节能目标,并且在顺利实现“十一五”节能目标的基础上,继续将节能工作作为“十二五”时期宏观调控的重点,并制定了16%的降耗任务。不过考虑到短时期内,重工业高速发展仍将是我国工业化进程的主要特征,政府主导的投资模式也存在对高能耗行业的偏好,技术创新能力和全要素生产率水平依然处于较低水平,能源消费结构也还是以低效高污染的煤炭消耗为主,同时人均收入水平突破1000美元大关也将产生更多的居民能源消费需求,这些中国经济的现实特征无疑将不同程度上加大节能目标实现的困难和复杂性。如何顺利完成“十二五”节能减排目标,实现增长方式向集约化增长转变,已经成为中国经济奇迹得以维持的关键和基础性问题。基于这样的认识,本文将研究对象集中于中国经济发展过程中能耗强度的变化轨迹,尝试通过对能耗强度演化机制的模拟和重现,实证分析技术、价格、结构、体制等多种因素对能耗强度变化的影响机制和作用强度,并将之印证于“十一五”时期我国节能减排政策的实施过程,进而从节能政策的长效性视角出发,对符合我国增长特征和体制背景的节能政策设计提出建议和参考。文章首先借助于面板计量模型,实证分析了能源消费强度的演化机制,考察了政府投资偏好、产业结构、技术进步、固定资产投资、体制、能源价格等多种相关因素对能耗强度的作用机理,并且在省际、区域、城市经济体、产业和工业行业五个不同的样本纬度条件下,进行了能耗影响路径分析,从而刻画了区域差异、行业差异和经济发展模式差异对能耗水平演化轨迹的微妙影响,同时在多样本的比较分析基础上,形成了能耗影响机制的交叉论证。根据实证结论,在省际能耗强度变化中,政府投资偏好的存在确实对能耗降低具有不利影响,而技术进步与结构调整对能耗强度的降低则存在显著而积极的影响。同时能源消费结构优化对能源效率改善的积极作用也得到了进一步的证实。作为节能减排的核心因素,投资、技术、产业结构和能源结构的变化主导了中国能耗水平的波动。结构的重型化是能耗强度阶段性上升的主因,但是,要素价格、FDI、所有制变化等因素对能耗强度的影响路径,却反映出经济发展水平、增长动力源、产业结构等区域样本经济之间的差异。在将样本拓展到产业和行业层面时,也可以得到类似的结果,即投资、技术、结构和能源间替代的影响依然是相对稳定和持续的,但关联到要素配置等微观环节的影响变量,其影响轨迹则呈现出差异性和不稳定性特征。如价格变动和电能的更多使用确实显著地降低了能耗水平,但资本形成加速和产业发展中的资本密集化趋势也部分地将这种影响抵消了。或者说,资本与劳动间互补关系被再一次印证。此外,FDI对能耗强度的影响也出现了差异性的结果。总体看来,在不同维度样本下,政府投资偏好、技术进步、结构调整和能源消费结构的优化确实对能耗强度存在稳定且一致的影响,但其余相关变量,如固定资产投资、能源价格、FDI、所有制变革以及贸易结构等变量的影响则对样本较为敏感,其实际作用机制反映着经济发展的阶段特征和部门属性的差异。在实证分析基础上,文章开始将重心集中于节能政策和降耗规制的实施与路径选择上。首先分析了“十一五”期间我国节能目标约束体系的形成与分解过程,文章认为平均的节能目标分解思路,无法体现对节能工作有显著影响的区域特征和区域经济增长的需要,并且进一步加大了最终目标完成的不确定性和复杂性。而科学的节能分解应该沿着“先东、再中、后西”的次序逐步推进。接下来,利用有限的数据资料,本文分析和回顾了“十一五”期间能耗指标的相关变化轨迹,在前文实证分析结论基础上,比较分析了节能约束的政策途径选择,论证了这种选择的必然性和有效性：基于规模改善的“关、停、并、转”和严苛的高能耗项目投资抑制政策,其管制途径在具有便于操作、便于监督和较低管制成本的特点同时,有效地弱化了中央和地方政府的目标差异,从而出现了两级利益主体一致性的政策取向与行政激励。也因此实现了能耗强度在规划期内的持续下降。文章进一步从节能机制长效性的角度出发,对“十一五”期间节能政策的设计思路进行了分析,剖析和阐述了节能减排的推进对结构调整产生的细微影响。结论认为,以规模整合为主要手段的管制体系,将强化高能耗行业的技术能力,加剧工业部门的偏重化发展趋势。这种试图避开结构影响而直接作用于效率改善的管制思路,以规模管制为主要手段的强制政策,对市场化调节手段的忽视,可能会由于规模整合的效应在短时期内被迅速释放而无以为继,其将动摇当前节能约束的长效性基础。而深层次结构矛盾的存在和激化,势必会在规模管制达到一定峰值而难以推进时,使得增长与节能成为零和博弈。最后,文章在前述分析基础上,对我国节能减排政策提出了相关建议,一个具有长效性,符合中国经济增长特征和体制背景的节能政策体系设计具有相当的复杂性。然而,加快推进能耗领域数据统计体系的完备,细化能耗监测指标,调整总量检测的思路和方法,科学、合理的分解和制定区域节能目标,结合区域特征实行差别化的调控政策通道,加快高耗能行业管控思路的扭转,创造和培育管制主体从横向向纵向转移的体制环境以及推进生态和环境成本价格化的改革步伐,势必在“十二五”乃至更长时期内,符合市场化原则的节能约束体系建立和中国能源消费强度的下降提供长久的帮助。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy maintains stable in the process of high speed growth. Meanwhile, in a relatively short period of time, it completed the transformation of industrialization and rapidly accessed to the middle and late stages of the industrial development. But along with the steady improvement in the level of social material and national income and welfare, it shows that our country’s resource consumption is increasing rapidly and the resource bottleneck effects gradually appear. As a big country which is full of resource, the foreign degree of dependency of petroleum products in our country has exceeded50%currently, and China has become a net coal importer since2007. Because the energy consumption increases rapidly, the pressure of energy product safe supply is enhanced, and at the same time, it derives from the increasingly severe carbon emissions and environmental pressure. The sustainable material foundation of Chinese economic growth begins to waver, and the energy factor has been transformed from a highly competitive resource product to the bottleneck element which restricts further development of economy.It is in this background that our country began to make energy saving into the target of macroscopical adjusting control system since2006. In the "Eleventh Five-Year" development compendium, it is specified that the GDP energy consumption falls20%. Basing on the successful implementation of "Eleven Five-Year" energy saving target, the energy-saving work is still vital as focus of macroeconomic regulation and control in "the Twelfth Five Year Plan" period and the consumption will fall16%.But in the short period, the heavy industry development will still be the main feature of our country industrialized process, the investment of governmental dominant mode also exists in the high energy consumption industries, technology innovation ability and factor productivity level are still in a low level, the main structure of energy consumption is still coal consumption which causes low efficiency and high pollution, at the same time, average per capita income breaks through1000dollars which will produce more residential energy consumption demand. The reality features of Chinese economy will undoubtedly make the complement of the energy-saving difficult and complex. How to successfully complete energy saving emission reduction targets and change the grow manner into intensive growth have become the fundamental problem which relates to the maintenance of China’s economic miracle.Firstly, we make use of panel data econometric model to analyze empirically the evolutional mechanism of the energy consumption intensity and study the mechanism of action of various factors, such as the structure, technique, system, price, etc., which have effects on the energy consumption intensity. Then we make an analysis of samples in five different situations, that is, interprovincial, regional, urban economic, and industrial, and characterize the subtle impacts of the regional differences, the industrial differences and differences in models of economic development on the evolutional track of the energy consumption level. At the same time, we cross-prove the mechanism of the energy consumption impacts on the basis of the comparative analysis of various samples.In our study based on the interprovincial samples, technical progress and structural adjustment have significant and positive impacts on the decline of the energy consumption intensity. But the real influencing power varies regularly with diverse sample compositions. Meanwhile, it is further confirmed that the optimization of the energy consumption structure has positive effect on improving the energy efficiency. As the core of conserving energy and reducing emissions, the changes of technology, industrial structure and energy structure dominate the fluctuations in the level of Chinese energy consumption. However, the influencing approaches to the energy consumption intensity, which are caused by factor prices, FDI, the changes of ownership and other factors, reflect the economic environmental differences of regional samples like the level of economic development, the growth of the power source and the basic pattern of industrial compositions.Also, we find the similar changes when the samples are extend to the industry and the trade. That is to say, the substitute impacts among the technology, structure and energy remain relatively stable and continuous, while the impact tracks show diversity and instability associated with the micro influencing variables such as the allocation of elements. For example, though the changes of the price and increased use of electricity do reduce the energy consumption level significantly, the acceleration of capital formation and the capital-intensive trend in the industrial development offset some of this effect. In other words, the complementary relationship between the capital and the labor is confirmed again. Besides, there is a diverse analysis result about the impacts of FDI on the energy consumption intensity as well.Furthermore, we introduce two control variables in the industrial level, the changes of scale level and "resource dividend", to the model and test the impacts of scale changes and trade structure on the energy consumption intensity. Therefore, we do get the expected results:we prove the existence of "resource dividend" in the capital-intensive industry and reinforcement of "resource comparative advantage" does strengthen the dependence of Chinese economy on energy.Generally speaking, we find that technological progress, structural adjustment and optimization of energy consumption structure indeed have stable and consistent influence on the energy consumption intensity, but the impacts of variables like energy prices, FDI, ownership changes and trade structure, etc. are sensitive to the samples. Its real mechanism of action reflects the characteristics of the economic development stages and the diversity of departments’attributes.How did energy constraints and controls decrease the energy consumption and by which political approaches was the decline achieved?At first, we elaborate the formation and decomposition of constraint systems about conserving energy and evaluate them scientifically and practically. The idea of average target decomposition could not indicate the regional characteristics which affect conserving energy significantly and the necessity of regional economic growth and further enlarge the uncertainty and complexity of completing the ultimate goal. However, scientific conserving energy decomposition should advance gradually in the order of "east first, then center and last west".Then we begin with the changes of the related factors during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period and analyze the real changes of the structure, technology, energy consumption structure and production scale, etc.. On the assumption of the causal chain about the evolutional mechanism of energy consumption, we recognize how to choose political approaches to energy-conserving constraints and confirm the necessity and effectiveness of this choice:the controlled approaches on the basis of scale improvement are convenient to operate, to supervise and have the lower controlling costs. Meanwhile, they can weaken the differences between the central and local government’s targets so that the policy orientation and administrative incentive are appeared in which the two of the interest subjects are consistent. As a consequence, the continuous decline of the energy consumption has been achieved during the Plan period.Could the same experience and success continue to be reproduced during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period?From the perspective of long-term effectiveness, we make an analysis of the design ideas of the energy-conserving policies which were formulated during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, and dissect and set forth the subtle impacts of the promotion of energy conservation and emissions reduction on the structural adjustment. Then we conclude that the controlling system regarding scale integration as the main means will strengthen the dependence of technological capabilities and growth on it, and aggravate the development trend which emphasizes on the industry. Thus we make a judgment and answer to the long-tern effectiveness of present energy-conserving polices. This control thought which tries to avoid structural effects and improve effectiveness directly, an enforcement policy which regards scale control as the main means, neglects the means of market-oriented regulation so that the long-tern effectiveness of current energy-conserving constraints is undermined seriously. And the existence and intensification of deep structural contradictions must be difficult to promote when the scale control reaches to a peak, making the growth and energy conservation become a zero-sum game.In fact, if we continue to advance with the same controlling idea and political approaches during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, perhaps it would not go on since the effects of scale integration are released quickly in the short term. In other words, as for the characteristics of Chinese economic development, how to explore a political approach to mitigating the pressure from energy and environment on the basis of the guarantee that the economy remains growing rapidly without touching upon deep contradictions is unknown. At least, we don’t the answer at present.It can provide long-term help to set up energy-conserving constraints’system which accords with market principles and decrease Chinese energy consumption intensity during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period and even a longer time that the completeness of energy consumption statistic system is accelerated, energy consumption indicators for monitoring are detailed, the ideas and methods of testing total amount are adjusted, regional energy-conserving targets are decomposed and formulated scientifically and reasonably, differentiated controlling political access is implemented with the regional characteristics, the torsion of the ideas of controlling high energy-consuming industries is speeded up, the institutional environment of which the controlling principle bodies are transferred from horizontal to vertical is created and nurtured and the revolution of pricing ecological and environmental costs is promoted.更多还原