【作者】 谢波；

【导师】 陈仲常；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 数量经济学， 2012， 博士

【副题名】基于双轨制体制、人力资本异质与技术创新视角

【摘要】 自上世纪八十年代以来，国内外的大多数学者研究表明，自然资源丰裕并不会必然带来经济的快速增长，即资源诅咒的假说，其重点内容之一就是资源诅咒的传导机制问题，也是解释该假说的关键。现有传导机制理论，尚不能足够地说明资源诅咒问题存在的根本原因。尤其对于我国这样的发展中国家，自然资源是通过什么途径对经济增长产生影响，产生什么样的影响以及影响程度如何，显得更加复杂和多样。本文尝试结合中国的特殊国情，研究我国自然资源丰裕程度对区域经济增长产生影响的相关主要命题。论文在对多年来的国内外文献梳理基础上，首先从理论模型上考虑我国自计划经济向市场经济改革历程的实际情况，论证我国是否有存在资源诅咒问题发生的可能性，初步分析了我国资源诅咒现象中正在发生的或已出现的主要问题。然后，经验分析上选取了双轨制体制、人力资本异质和技术创新三个切入点，寻求转变资源开发拉动经济增长的发展模式，促进产业升级与转型，提出相应的减缓或破解我国资源诅咒问题的对策和建议。本文研究的基本结论如下：①从理论分析上看，本文构建了3部门+3生产要素的理论模型，进行区域内关于资源诅咒出现的市场经济内在机制理论分析，并结合中国改革开放的实际历程，基于局部改革理论模型上，尝试性地解释经济政策改革对我国资源诅咒问题如何产生影响，并辅以新经济地理理论要素给予补充说明。结果表明，资源开发的繁荣不仅影响了生产要素在跨部门之间流动，造成逆工业化发展，而且还影响了生产要素跨区域流动，造成资源地福利下降，经济发展相对萎缩。作为国民经济主体的资源型产业，在不断地吸引与之更易匹配的简单劳动力和资本生产要素的同时，又不断地排斥与之较难匹配的高层次人力资本、科学技术、制度要素等。结果，资源部门或地区繁荣了，其他产业，尤其制造业萎缩了，整个区域的经济发展就相应滞后了。然后，初步分析了体制问题是资源丰裕地区资源开发减缓经济增长（即资源诅咒现象）的重要原因，尤其是资源产权纯粹的全民所有制（低效率的资源产权公有制委托—代理关系）和国有企业在资源产业中垄断地位。还有不断地出现的人力资本流失、产业结构问题、生态环境问题等，为摆脱“诅咒”的困境增加了更大的障碍。②基于体制双轨制的研究视角，用中国经济转型中形成的体制双轨制（即产权双轨制和价格双轨制）解析了我国资源富集地区经济发展相对滞后的原因。由于中国的资源诅咒形成的机理中具有中国特有的体制因素，因此也是“中国式的资源诅咒”问题。考虑到我国特殊的国情，在渐进式的市场经济改革的历程中，双轨制还将持续较长时期，尤其在生产资料领域。所以，不能抛开双轨制体制这个因素，去研究一般经济层面上的资源诅咒问题。面板数据检验结果显示，中国的资源诅咒现象确实存在，且体制双轨制是导致地区自然资源富集程度与经济发展负相关的重要原因。进一步分析，使用面板误差修正模型分析了地区的经济发展水平、能源资源的供给（或需求）与双轨制（政府价格控制程度、公有经济比重）存在长期协整关系，并验证了体制双轨制会加剧资源相对富集地区的资源诅咒效应。③考虑到我国地区间人力资本分布差异较大的实际情况，且人力资本不同类型对经济增长的贡献不同，本文使用了异质性人力资本指标和基于条件分布，而非条件均值的分位数回归模型基础上，根据区域经济增长的实际数据，而不是粗略地划分为东、中、西部，来考察资源开发和人力资本对区域经济增长的影响，并进一步协整检验能源开发与异质性人力资本之间的关系。计量回归结果表明，只有经济增长低分位点处的地区（如山西、黑龙江、四川、云南、贵州、青海、内蒙古等）发展才对自然资源有一定的依赖，其他地区并未受到资源开发显著地影响。尽管人力资本总量的提升对经济发展有明显地推动作用，但不同类型的教育对经济增长各分位点处的影响各异。资源开发短期内对较高教育层次（高中、大专及以上）的人力资本有“挤出”效应，但长期来看最终将会促进人力资本的提高。④基于我国省际面板数据，考察资源型产业集聚和技术创新对经济增长的影响，以及资源型产业集聚等因素对该区域的创新能力的作用机制。根据被解释变量不同的特征，使用了动态面板数据模型和空间面板数据模型两种计量经济分析方法。回归计量结果表明，资源产业集聚与经济增长呈现出负相关关系，说明我国存在资源诅咒的现象，但东部地区并不明确；技术创新能力的提升对全国总体的经济增长具有显著地促进作用，但在东、中和西部对经济增长的影响有所差别。技术创新能力在全国范围内具有较强的空间溢出和空间依赖性，在东部、中部和西部表现为依次减弱；在中西部地区的资源产业集聚显著地“挤出”区域技术创新。⑤本文提出了破解我国资源诅咒问题的对策和建议。资源产权改革为资源补偿制度的建立提供保障，资源补偿制度建立是资源产权改革的途径，两者是同一过程；首先，借鉴发达的市场经济国家资源产权改革及补偿制度较为的成熟模式，结合我国资源收益分配涉及多个主体的情况，提出建立公平的收益分配机制、协调机制和信息沟通机制；理顺中央政府与地方政府的资源产权与事权关系，有效地完善资源税费制度是提高资源丰裕地自身经济能力的重点。第二，资源价格改革不仅仅是中国转变经济增长方式的关键，同时也是促进区域协调发展，促进资源地区摆脱资源诅咒的关键。第三，资源型地区开发应该建立和完善人力资本产权的市场制度结合起来，才能顺利实现人力资本产权的交易。完善人力资本的收益分配制度，实行按劳分配与按能力分配相结合。引进外来人才与本地培养同时进行，注重转岗培训和再就业。一定要抓住国际和国内的机会承接产业转移，充分发挥地区的资源禀赋优势，运用新技术延伸资源型产业链。建立健全技术创新中介服务平台，促进各项创新资源在其创新主体和要素所有者之间进行顺畅流动，为促进资源型地区的产业结构升级与转型提供科学技术上的支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the1980s， the research from most of the scholars at home and abroadshows that the abundant natural resources will not necessarily bring the fast economicgrowth. It is called the resource curse hypothesis which is one of the important contentof the resource curse transmission mechanism problem and is the key explaining it.Existing researches have not been enough to explain the root cause of resource curseemerging. Especially for developing countries like China， how does the naturalresource influence on economic growth? What impact and how much? The problemsare more complicated and diversified. Taking into account Chinese special situation，This paper analyses relative major proposition about the relation between the naturalresources and the regional economic growth. Based on the literature review at home andabroad in the past years， the thesis begins to take a theoretical analysis， consideringour country actual situation which is from the planned economy to the market economy.Then，it judges whether there is the possibility of the resource curse problem in ourcountry. It preliminary describes main problems of the resource curse which ishappening and have appeared. From evidences for the topics， the paper chooses threeperspectives which are the double-track system， human capital heterogeneity andregional technology innovation. In the end， the paper aims to switch the developmentmodel of resources development drive economic growth， and promote industriesupgrading and transformating，and put forward the corresponding countermeasures andSuggestions cracking the resource curse problems.The main research conclusion includes some points as the following:Firstly， from the theoretical analysis， this paper constructs a theoretical modelof3departments+3production elements. And it analyses the market economymechanism from the resource curse within an area， and considering the actualprocess of China’s reform， this article attempts to explain the influence abouteconomic reform policy to the resource curse problem in our country basing on theMSV (Murphy， Shleifer and Vishny，1992) local reform theoretical model， exceptfor the new economic geography theory elements. The results show that theprosperity of the resource developing not only has a change to the production factorflowing between departments which leads to the de-industrialization， but alsoinfluencing the production factor flowing across the region which decreases the welfare and come down the economic development in the abundant resource regions. As a mainbody of a national economy， the resources industry continues to attract the simpleproduction elements of the labor and capital， and at the same time rejects the higherlevel human capital，science technology，system elements，etc. As a result，it boomsin resource departments or the regions. But other industries， especially themanufacturing have a recession. And the regional economic development iscorresponding lagged. Then， the article suggests it is the critical key of the system thatdecreases the economic growth of abundant resources areas (i.e. the resource cursephenomenon)， especially for resources property’s pure right of people-ownership (lowefficiency principal-agent relationship of resources property right based on publicownership and the monopoly position of state-owned enterprise in resources industry.There have been the loss of human capital， industrial structure imbalangce andecological environment problems， which have increased greater obstacles for gettingrid of the "curse" dilemma.Secondly， from the perspective of the dual-track system from China’s economictransformation， this paper carries out why the natural resource-rich areas haverelatively slow economic growth. Because of the special structure in the proceeding， itis defined as the China’s resource curse. Considering the special conditions in China，course， double track will continue for a long time during the gradual the marketeconomy reform of， especially in production material field. So， we can’t put asidedouble track system， to study the resource curse from general economic level.Resultsreveal that the effect of the resource curse does exist， and the dual-track system is animportant factor that leads to it. The paper further confirms that economic growth iscointegrated with energy supply， or energy demand and the dual-track system the longterm， and the dual-track system frustrates economic growth more strongly inresource-rich areas than in others.Thirdly， taking accounting about the regional differences between human capitaldistribution and the difference from different human capital to economic growth， thispaper uses the heterogeneity human capital index. It bases on conditional distributionquantile regression model， than unconditional mean one. Evindences for the regionaleconomic growth， the peper investigates the influence of resources development andhuman capital on the regional economic growth， not roughly dividing into the eastern，central and western area. In this paper， the paper use quantile regression estimator tostudy the impact of energy development and the heterogeneity of human capital distribution on economic growth in China. And the paper further analyzes therelationship between energy development and the heterogeneity of human capitaldistribution by cointegration test. Results show that: low economic developing areas(such as Shanxi， Heilongjiang， Sichuan， Yunnan， Guizhou， Qinghai，Neimenggu， etc.) depend on the exploitation of natural resources have certainly， butother areas do not. That is different from the conditions that many authors have thoughtenergy development hinders the regional economic growth by the mean model， theso-called "resource curse" phenomenon. Different types of human capital differentlyeffect the economic growth， although the enhancement of whole education improvesthe economic growth obviously. In the short term resources development can extrudehigher education levels (like high school， college and above)， but in the long term itwill eventually promote human capital.Fourth， being based on the provincial panel data in China， this paper carries outthe effect of resources industrial agglomeration and regional innovation on economicgrowth and some factors on regional innovation. According to the characteristics ofexplained variables， the paper uses two methods of econometric analysis which are thedynamic panel data model and spatial panel data model. The results show thecorrelation between resources industrial agglomeration and economic growth isnegative. It means there is resources curse phenomenon in our country， except for theeastern. The improvement of regional innovative ability has remarkably promoted thenational economic growth， but it has differently appeared in the western， the centralregion and the eastern. The regional innovative ability has strong space overflowing andspace dependence in our country， and its intensity has decreased in turn in thewestern， the central region and the eastern. Finally the paper indicates resourcesindustrial agglomeration crowds out regional technology innovation.Finally， this paper presents some countermeasures and suggestions cracking theresource curse. The property reform of resources provides the security for establishingresources compensation system， and the establishing resources compensation system isthe way to the property reform of resources. They are in the same process. The articlesuggests our government should learn expriences about resources property right reformand compensation from developed market economy countries. It supports that ourgovernment should put forward the fair income distribution mechanism， coordinationmechanism and information communication mechanism， considering some actors inthe resources income distribution. To improve the economic growth of the abundant resource areas， it should straighten out the relationship the property and theconsistency between the central government and local government， and effectivelyimprove the resource tax system. Then， the price reform is the key not only tochanging the style of China economic growth， but also promoting the regionalharmoniously developing. The rich resource regions should establish and perfect themarket system of human capital property in order to smoothly realize human capitalproperty right trading. The government should optimize the income distribution systemof the human capital and imply a distribution according to the combination of one’swork and ability， introduce foreign talent and train local ones at the same time， payattention to job-transfer training and re-employing. With respect to upgrading andtransforming the industrial structure， the rich resource areas must seize the opportunityto international and domestic to undertake industrial transferring， give full play to theresources endowment advantage， use new technologies to extend resources industrychains. They should set up and perfect the technology innovation intermediary serviceplatform， and boost the innovation resources moving between its innovation subjectand factor owners， support the science technology for upgrading and transforming theindustrial structure.更多还原